2011 Federal election polls, demographics, predictions

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Slava

There was an average of polls on twitter today that said 37-33 nationally. Ontario West the CPC leads and Quebec East the NDP leads. NDP are ahead of the Liberals in every region now according to that. The question is where the "soft" Liberal support goes. Do they vote to stop Harper or vote to stop Layton?

It seems to me that the average would be slightly more spread out, but only by a point or two.

April 29 releases:
Angus Reid: 37-33
Nanos: 38.0-29.6
Compas: 46-26
Abacus: 37-32

[MarchHare]

I doubt it will ever happen, but I think my ideal election result would be a reduced CPC-minority in which they form a temporary coalition government with the Liberals. If all this polling data is anywhere close to accurate, Ignatieff will certainly be gone as Liberal leader after this election, and if Harper fails to win a majority (or loses ground which is a very real possibility at this point), I think he'll be forced to resign as well. Under this scenario, Harper would stay on as PM until the CPC and Liberals both complete their leadership selections, and then we have another election with fresh blood in 2-3 years.

Why is this ideal? The Liberals and Conservatives really aren't that far apart on economic issues (they certainly have more in common than the Liberals and NDP do), so I think they could find a lot of common ground on which to work together in that area. I really don't want a Harper majority, but the thought of an NDP-Liberal coalition under Prime Minister Layton is even worse.

[Nehkara]

One of the most interesting things to me out of the Abacus poll is that it has the NDP and CPC tied at 40% in BC... that is a high number in BC for the NDP.

Also, favourability as PM:

Favourable/Indifferent or Unsure/Unfavourable

Layton: 55/25/20%
Harper: 33/20/48%
Ignatieff: 16/24/59%

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by oilers_fan

As a CPC supporter, I am officially worried.

As someone who likes making money, I am officially worried.

All of this because Liberals picked a terrible leader....yikes.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

I doubt it will ever happen, but I think my ideal election result would be a reduced CPC-minority in which they form a temporary coalition government with the Liberals. If all this polling data is anywhere close to accurate, Ignatieff will certainly be gone as Liberal leader after this election, and if Harper fails to win a majority (or loses ground which is a very real possibility at this point), I think he'll be forced to resign as well. Under this scenario, Harper would stay on as PM until the CPC and Liberals both complete their leadership selections, and then we have another election with fresh blood in 2-3 years.

Why is this ideal? The Liberals and Conservatives really aren't that far apart on economic issues (they certainly have more in common than the Liberals and NDP do), so I think they could find a lot of common ground on which to work together in that area. I really don't want a Harper majority, but the thought of an NDP-Liberal coalition under Prime Minister Layton is even worse.

The only thing that punches a hole in this is if Ignatieff walks, and he will, Bob Rae will jump into that power vacuum and the guy is as left as it comes, he will jump into bed with Jack Layton faster then you can say roofiecollata.

[CaptainCrunch]

Three hundred and eights final guess?

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Three hundred and eights final guess?

No, those numbers are from yesterday's projection.

Threehundredeight.com will have a final projection this evening once all polls are in.

I think they are especially waiting for the final Nanos poll that is supposed to roll in tonight.

[MarchHare]

If I'm reading that correctly, 308's "best case scenario" for Harper is 156 seats (155 gives him a majority). It seems more and more likely that the most probably result at this point is the CPC holding steady (or maybe losing a few seats), the NDP gaining seats, and the Liberals and Bloc both losing seats.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The only thing that punches a hole in this is if Ignatieff walks, and he will, Bob Rae will jump into that power vacuum and the guy is as left as it comes, he will jump into bed with Jack Layton faster then you can say roofiecollata.

If that day ever comes, then I'll turn in my LPC membership card and sign up for the CPC and try to affect change from within. After this election debacle, the Liberals surely won't be so stupid as to select a leader from the left-wing branch of the party. They need a moderate centrist who can contrast favourably against both the NDP and the CPC, not an "NDP-lite" leader.

He's said in the past that he doesn't want to return to politics, but I wonder what it would take to convince Frank McKenna to run for the job? He'd easily win a majority government and be an absolutely fantastic PM.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

This is a classic Conservitive line. If you aren't Con then you are a commie.

I am not a NDP supporter, nor will I vote for them. I have been Liberal for my entire life, and will vote Liberal. At least I can recognize that the 2 top parties have leadership issues that are causing non-NDP folks to vote for them in droves.

1. Iggy is a horrible leader of the Liberals, and no one trusts the Liberals after the sponsorship scandal.

2. I know this will come as a shock to Conservatives, but most Canadians do not like and/or trust Harper. That combined with the contempt of parliament, G8 summit costs, and fighter jets, and most Canadians see him as another corrupt arrogant leader, just like the Liberals.

So a lot of these votes are fed up people who have tried the 2 top dogs, and seen the results. They are not "socialists", but people who are sick of politics as usual over the last 20 years.

Cons and Libs both better do some soul searching after this election. Labeling the voters as something negative will not help them move forward.

Odd...I read him as saying that the NDP are socialists and nothing to do with the CPC...what part of that am I missing?

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

If that day ever comes, then I'll turn in my LPC membership card and sign up for the CPC and try to affect change from within. After this election debacle, the Liberals surely won't be so stupid as to select a leader from the left-wing branch of the party. They need a moderate centrist who can contrast favourably against both the NDP and the CPC, not an "NDP-lite" leader.

He's said in the past that he doesn't want to return to politics, but I wonder what it would take to convince Frank McKenna to run for the job? He'd easily win a majority government and be an absolutely fantastic PM.

I have my doubts that McKenna would want to leave his current life to rejoin the Liberal's. Hell, I'm a political animal, and I wouldn't want to join a party thats basically back shot its last three leaders.

As long as you have the senior leadership crew that you have there that party is going to be a mess.

Plus you have to compete with the heir apparent in Trudeau Junior.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

No, those numbers are from yesterday's projection.

Threehundredeight.com will have a final projection this evening once all polls are in.

I think they are especially waiting for the final Nanos poll that is supposed to roll in tonight.

Yeah, sorry about that, I haven't had my coffee and misread the notification banner focusing on the word final.

[NBC]

It always irritates me when people say that "most Canadians do not like or trust Harper." That is largely immaterial as the same could be applied to all the leaders. In fact significantly more people "do not like or trust Ignatieff and Layton" judging by their respective parties' performances in recent federal elections.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by NBC

It always irritates me when people say that "most Canadians do not like or trust Harper." That is largely immaterial as the same could be applied to all the leaders. In fact significantly more people "do not like or trust Ignatieff and Layton" judging by their respective parties' performances in recent federal elections.

Polling data posted above on this very page shows that 55% of Canadians have a positive opinion of Layton, compared to 33% for Harper and just 16% for Ignatieff. Likewise, Layton is disliked by only 20% of the population (Harper: 48%, Ignatieff: 59%).

[CaptainCrunch]

I do agree with what harper said.

Its great that you want to have a beer with the guy, but that doesn't mean that he's the best guy to run the economy.


My opinion

I have a neighbor he's a great guy, I talk to him all the time and he's hilarious, friendly and all that stuff. But he's also certifiably insane and I wouldn't let him in my house.

[Nehkara]

You know... despite the Forum Research poll's lean towards the NDP I am wondering if it might be accurate. They had an awfully large sample size of 3800!

In fact, that Forum Research poll had the largest sample size of any poll in this campaign.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

My opinion

I have a neighbor he's a great guy, I talk to him all the time and he's hilarious, friendly and all that stuff. But he's also certifiably insane and I wouldn't let him in my house.

Was about to post the same thing. I have friends that are very likable, a riot to be around. But do I want them running this country? Hell no.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Polling data posted above on this very page shows that 55% of Canadians have a positive opinion of Layton, compared to 33% for Harper and just 16% for Ignatieff. Likewise, Layton is disliked by only 20% of the population (Harper: 48%, Ignatieff: 59%).

Yup...but there is always a caveat to that.

Whether or not you like a leader, their policies are really what affects people directly and that's generally how they vote.

though I have to admit that Layton has swung people this time, not because of policy, but because he is tolerable and many see the others as intolerable.

If the likeability ratings were the judge for the final results, the NDP would win in a landslide never seen in Canada.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Tough one to call, as I don't believe polling methodology has kept pace with technological change.

[Nehkara]

New numbers from Nanos Research Leadership Index:

Layton - 97.4
Harper - 88.0
Ignatieff - 39.0
May - 8.7
Duceppe - 8.0

Layton continues to lead in Trust. (36.6% Layton to 26.4% Harper)

Harper continues to lead in Competence but lead has narrowed. (34.9% Harper to 26.5% Layton)

Layton now leads in Vision for Canada. (34.3% Layton to 26.7% Harper)