2011 Federal election polls, demographics, predictions

[NBC]

Nice. It's early and my brain isn't functioning properly. NBC used to be good back in the day no?

Fortunately my username acronym has to do with something other than television networks!

[Nehkara]

Nanos this morning:

CPC - 37% (-1)
NDP - 30.6% (+1)
LIB - 22.7% (-0.6)
BLQ - 5.5% (+0.3)
GRN - 3.2% (+0.1)


The Nanos poll appears to be stabilizing. It will be interesting to see if it moves again when Nanos shows their final numbers this evening.

[Bownesian]

I'm wondering if it is significant that the advanced polling was done over the 22-25th when the numbers were like this:

CPC - 38
NDP - 24
LPC - 26
BLQ - 7
GRN - 3

There were something like 2 million votes cast when that was the mood of the electorate. 34 million citizens less 20% for children, less another third for people not voting and those votes represent more than 10% of the total that will be cast.

[The Goon]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Gotta give NDP props I guess. They are running a way more aggressive ad campaign than the rest it seems. I've seen that stupid Layton ad so many times now.

You know where I stand
You know I'm a fighter
And...I...won't...stop...until...the...job...is... done...

To be fair, I prefer a commercial like that over any attack ad. I also like the Conservative ad with all the patriotic images.

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by Bownesian

I'm wondering if it is significant that the advanced polling was done over the 22-25th when the numbers were like this:

CPC - 38
NDP - 24
LPC - 26
BLQ - 7
GRN - 3

There were something like 2 million votes cast when that was the mood of the electorate. 34 million citizens less 20% for children, less another third for people not voting and those votes represent more than 10% of the total that will be cast.

By then you could see which way the wind was blowing though. I suspect there are a lot of NDP votes in those 2 million. There were also (I believe) a lot of advanced polling events held at universities and the youth vote is strongly with the NDP.

However, you could be right and the fact that there was record turnout for advanced polling could give the CPC an edge and also possibly save the Liberals from complete humiliation.

CPC definitely didn't like the advanced polls at Universities:

The Conservative Party alleged that a special ballot held at the University of Guelph on April 13, 2011 could in fact be illegal under the Canada Elections Act, claiming that partisan election material was present. Elections Canada, who are responsible for enforcing the act, responded that the ballots were legal. The action by the Conservatives, especially after allegations that a party volunteer attempted to grab the ballot box in an attempt to halt the voting, was criticised by the opposition parties who accused the Conservatives of discouraging youth from voting.

[Fire]

I can't believe we have so many socialists in this country. 30% for the NDP?! That's insane, hopefully they will come to their senses on May 2nd.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Fire

I can't believe we have so many socialists in this country. 30% for the NDP?! That's insane, hopefully they will come to their senses on May 2nd.

Especially considering what a mess Europe is in because of socialist entitlements.

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Especially considering what a mess Europe is in because of socialist entitlements.

Really? Europe is in a bigger mess than the US?

[starseed]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Especially considering what a mess Europe is in because of socialist entitlements.

Well, there are six european countries ahead of us in GDP per capita (13 if you go by the World Bank) and 18 european countries ahead of us according to the WHO's health care rankings... so it's not like we are much better than whatever image you have of europe.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

Really? Europe is in a bigger mess than the US?

financially a lot of countries are. there has to be a good middle ground between the States "only the rich thrive" and Europe's "everyone struggles together" systems

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Fire

I can't believe we have so many socialists in this country. 30% for the NDP?! That's insane, hopefully they will come to their senses on May 2nd.

This is a classic Conservitive line. If you aren't Con then you are a commie.

I am not a NDP supporter, nor will I vote for them. I have been Liberal for my entire life, and will vote Liberal. At least I can recognize that the 2 top parties have leadership issues that are causing non-NDP folks to vote for them in droves.

1. Iggy is a horrible leader of the Liberals, and no one trusts the Liberals after the sponsorship scandal.

2. I know this will come as a shock to Conservatives, but most Canadians do not like and/or trust Harper. That combined with the contempt of parliament, G8 summit costs, and fighter jets, and most Canadians see him as another corrupt arrogant leader, just like the Liberals.

So a lot of these votes are fed up people who have tried the 2 top dogs, and seen the results. They are not "socialists", but people who are sick of politics as usual over the last 20 years.

Cons and Libs both better do some soul searching after this election. Labeling the voters as something negative will not help them move forward.

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by Fire

I can't believe we have so many socialists in this country. 30% for the NDP?! That's insane, hopefully they will come to their senses on May 2nd.

I can't believe we have as many conservatives as we obviously do. Thankfully, not enough to allow them to win a majority.

[Calgaryborn]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

Really? Europe is in a bigger mess than the US?

It is being as several nations have been unable to service their own debt in Europe.

In any case we are suppose to be discussing polls here.

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by Calgaryborn

It is being as several nations have been unable to service their own debt in Europe.

In any case we are suppose to be discussing polls here.

True, thanks Calgaryborn.

Back on topic!

New poll JUST released by Forum Research:

CPC - 35%
NDP - 33%
LIB - 19%

[Resolute 14]

Forum is curious, as they have consistently polled the Conservatives lower, and the NDP higher than everyone else. Usually a 2-3 point swing each way on both parties. They, and Compas (who always have huge Conservative numbers) are two polls I generally disregard.

[Slava]

There was an average of polls on twitter today that said 37-33 nationally. Ontario West the CPC leads and Quebec East the NDP leads. NDP are ahead of the Liberals in every region now according to that. The question is where the "soft" Liberal support goes. Do they vote to stop Harper or vote to stop Layton?

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Forum is curious, as they have consistently polled the Conservatives lower, and the NDP higher than everyone else. Usually a 2-3 point swing each way on both parties. They, and Compas (who always have huge Conservative numbers) are two polls I generally disregard.

Agreed there. It seems Forum Research leans too far left in their results and COMPAS leans too far right.

I think Nanos will be most accurate.

For comparison... yesterday's COMPAS poll:

CPC - 46%
NDP - 26%
LIB - 17%
BLQ - 7%
GRN - 4%

[Resolute 14]

Compas is actually an error in methodology. They only report firm voters, not those who are leaning but not set. The Conservatives tend to have the strongest numbers there, so the result gets skewed.

[Nehkara]

New Abacus Data poll:

CPC - 37%
NDP - 32%
LIB - 18%
BLQ - 7%
GRN - 7%

[metallicat]

As a CPC supporter, I am officially worried.