2011 Canadian Election Thread

[Slava]

I just find it so bizarre that when people are asked about 2nd choices a lot of CPC supporters pick the NDP. Truthfully its kind of a dumb question anyway, because you get to vote for your first choice...so unless something enormous happens I would doubt that there is that much flip-flopping over the last week or two?

It just seems so odd though because the two parties seem so opposite on various points? I guess people are just much more partisan than what I would expect/hope. I would expect that the 2nd choice for most Liberals would be CPC and vice-versa...they seem the most congruous in terms of platforms, priorities, etc.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Slava

I just find it so bizarre that when people are asked about 2nd choices a lot of CPC supporters pick the NDP. Truthfully its kind of a dumb question anyway, because you get to vote for your first choice...so unless something enormous happens I would doubt that there is that much flip-flopping over the last week or two?

It just seems so odd though because the two parties seem so opposite on various points? I guess people are just much more partisan than what I would expect/hope. I would expect that the 2nd choice for most Liberals would be CPC and vice-versa...they seem the most congruous in terms of platforms, priorities, etc.

Is nobody an option? Because for most CPC voters I would think that would be most honest 2nd choice that they would have.

As for the NDP, I think it may have to do with them being still thought of as a minor party and the real race being between the Libs and CPC so the NDP are looked at as not really having a chance of mattering that much so why not say them rather then a "real" threat like the Liberals.

[redforever]

Originally Posted by Slava

I just find it so bizarre that when people are asked about 2nd choices a lot of CPC supporters pick the NDP. Truthfully its kind of a dumb question anyway, because you get to vote for your first choice...so unless something enormous happens I would doubt that there is that much flip-flopping over the last week or two?

It just seems so odd though because the two parties seem so opposite on various points? I guess people are just much more partisan than what I would expect/hope. I would expect that the 2nd choice for most Liberals would be CPC and vice-versa...they seem the most congruous in terms of platforms, priorities, etc.

I can see why people would pick Jack Layton and the NDP over the Liberals. NEP is a swear word in Western Canada and will remain so for a long long time, and NEP is synonymous with Liberal. Also AdScam is still fresh in the minds for many and again, that is synonymous with Liberal...and the biggest piano on the back of the Liberals is their leader, Ignatieff.

On the other hand, Layton is very charismatic...and there he is out giving it his all, just off treatment for prostate cancer and a hip replacement. People identify with things like that...and the NDP have never governed federally, so they don't bring the baggage that the CPC or Liberals do. He can promise the moon because most don't think he will actually get to govern and try to keep the promises he made on the campaign trail.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Yeesh, I don't want a Harper majority, but the thought of Prime Minister Layton scares me even more. Hopefully that poll is just an aberration.

As a fiscal conservative/social liberal, my ideal election result would be pretty much the same parliament we have now, prompting the following:

1. Harper fails to win a majority against a weak and divided left and is forced to resign
2. Ignatieff fails to improve on Dion's terrible seat count and is forced to resign
3. Layton makes no significant gains and resigns to focus on his health/family
4. None of the parties want another election until their leadership races are decided, so the interim leaders are forced to cooperate and make concessions for 3 years or so

Scenario 1 won't happen, Harper will accept the election results and govern, he would then step down before the next election, unless the Left triggers a fast election.

I can see a very bitter Ignatieff returning to Harvard and writing a book bitching about Canadian Politics and the Liberal Party. He's been made to look like a fool.

I do see Layton stepping down even with these positive results. I still wonder if the popular vote translates into a significant seat change for him.

I would hope we don't see another election for a couple of years, and I was wrong last time, but I don't see the Liberal's wanting another one. Their party is broken.

[MarchHare]

Scenario 1 won't happen, Harper will accept the election results and govern, he would then step down before the next election, unless the Left triggers a fast election.

Yeah, that's what I was saying -- the CPC will have a new leader heading into the next election if Harper fails to win a majority again.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

Ah yes, that brazenly uncompromising 2008 fiscal conservative position of which you purport did not exist. Of which was so roundly denounced by the (apparently in action only) fiscally conservative Liberal Party.

If you buy a fancy car after getting a temporary bonus, then decide you're going to stop heating your house because you realize you've outspent your means... that doesn't make you a fiscal conservative, that makes you a moron.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Slava

Heres a summation of seat projections. Ekos is definitely an outlier when you scan through this list: http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/04/25/f...ensus-at-last/

Hey, I'm friends with Calgary Grit! (Surprising no one?)

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by SebC

If you buy a fancy car after getting a temporary bonus, then decide you're going to stop heating your house because you realize you've outspent your means... that doesn't make you a fiscal conservative, that makes you a moron.

And if you point out that guy as a moron, while defending his neighbors; one who wants to drive a tank and the other a time travelling DeLorean, what does that make you?

This argument is less than useless.

If you are a fiscal conservative, there is only one option in the current election.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

And if you point out that guy as a moron, while defending his neighbors; one who wants to drive a tank and the other a time travelling DeLorean, what does that make you?

This argument is less than useless.

If you are a fiscal conservative, there is only one option in the current election.

Thats a sad situation though - we have to at least agree on that. Basically the situation is that there is no fiscally conservative option at this point.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Slava

Thats a sad situation though - we have to at least agree on that. Basically the situation is that there is no fiscally conservative option at this point.

I blame the electorate for that. Everyone is looking for something to be wooed into voting a certain way. We have such spending sacred cows that any party proposing scaling back entitlements will get crucified.

We need an adult conversation about health care, CPP, EI and the like. We need to present fairly to Canadians that the next two to three decades our society is going to age dramatically and put excessive strain on everything. Even if a party proposed slashing the health budget, at least then maybe we as a country could get together and hash out exactly what we're willing to live with as far as delivery and funding goes.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle1998242/

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by transplant99

This one claims to have a 97% success rate in calling seats from 2008. This time they have the CPC just into a majority when averaging it all out.

CANADA
CPC – avg 157 seats (40.3%) – low 134 (38.8%), high 171 (41.8%)
LPC – avg 69 (25.3%) – low 54 (23.8%), high 84 (26.8%)
BQ – avg 42 (7.6%) – low 38 (6.1%), high 49 (9.1%)
NDP – avg 39 (21.0%) – low 33 (19.5%), high 49 (22.5%)
GPC – avg 0 (4.8%) – low 0 (3.3%), high 0 (6.3%)
OTH – avg 1 (1.0%)


http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2011/

and here is a breakdown of ridings...

http://democraticspace.com/canada201...rojections.pdf

Interesting numbers. However, 2008 was a much easier election to call.
Surely the NDP with the high ratings in Quebec will get more than 3 seats.

[FlamesAddiction]

Kind of funny to see an NDP banner add on CP right now.

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

I blame the electorate for that. Everyone is looking for something to be wooed into voting a certain way. We have such spending sacred cows that any party proposing scaling back entitlements will get crucified.

We need an adult conversation about health care, CPP, EI and the like. We need to present fairly to Canadians that the next two to three decades our society is going to age dramatically and put excessive strain on everything. Even if a party proposed slashing the health budget, at least then maybe we as a country could get together and hash out exactly what we're willing to live with as far as delivery and funding goes.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle1998242/

Excellent post. People get what they deserve. It sucks that fiscal conservatives don't have more options, but by voting for a party that is even more fiscally irresponsible, you are only making things worse. As the left gains more seats by basically bribing the lower and middle class, the right has no alternative but to offer them something similar, lest they get obliterated. I think the real sad thing here is the age of entitlement that we have entered into.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Kind of funny to see an NDP banner add on CP right now.

They scare me, he can't actually win can he?

[Ark2]

Just looking at the ad at the top of this page, it says more family doctors and nurses. Have the NDP even addressed how they are going to achieve this?

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Ark2

Just looking at the ad at the top of this page, it says more family doctors and nurses. Have the NDP even addressed how they are going to achieve this?

Yes, but making it easier for doctors and nurses from other countries re-qualify.

[Ashartus]

Originally Posted by Ark2

Just looking at the ad at the top of this page, it says more family doctors and nurses. Have the NDP even addressed how they are going to achieve this?

By increasing the number of training spaces in universities. Though since Health Care is largely a provincial responsibility they still have to persuade the provinces to actually hire the extra nurses.

I've got to hand it to the NDP - while I don't agree with their fiscal policies, their platform is actually very well laid out compared to the other parties, which may explain part of their current success. The Conservative and Liberal platforms are pretty vague on a lot of stuff. The Greens are actually the worst in my opinion - even on environment their platform is lacking in detail.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by Ashartus

By increasing the number of training spaces in universities. Though since Health Care is largely a provincial responsibility they still have to persuade the provinces to actually hire the extra nurses.

Isn't Education also a provincial responsibility? How are they going to increase this number?

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by Ashartus

I've got to hand it to the NDP - while I don't agree with their fiscal policies, their platform is actually very well laid out compared to the other parties, which may explain part of their current success. The Conservative and Liberal platforms are pretty vague on a lot of stuff. The Greens are actually the worst in my opinion - even on environment their platform is lacking in detail.

I can't say that I agree. All I really see them doing is making claims of giving "more" to people without any real feasible explanation as to how they will do it. Talking about increasing things that they don't really have any control over isn't really something that strikes me as "well laid out".

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Originally Posted by Ark2

Just looking at the ad at the top of this page, it says more family doctors and nurses. Have the NDP even addressed how they are going to achieve this?

According to their website they now claim "We will work with the provinces and territories to address the shortage of doctors, nurses and other health care professionals by training 1,200 new doctors over the next 10 years"

I'm pretty sure 1,200 new doctors were going to graduate in the next ten years anyway.