2011 Canadian Election Thread

[evman150]

Wow. "Astonishing" is right.

I was telling my mom yesterday that a Jack Layton led coalition was a remote possibility. Today it seems a lot less remote.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by SebC

The Libs had been keeping a lid on spending... you don't think they would have supported a budget with less spending? The Conservatives increased spending over previous Liberal budgets, so I think it's fair to say that it was their decision.

Personally, I don't think the Liberals would have supported any Conservative minority budget, so the increased spending was to try and get NDP to agree to at least parts of it. In addition, there was obvious need to renovate and spend on the military, which also added.

Don't get me wrong. The Conservative budget had much more spending than I would have liked... but at least parts of it could be explained.

[Tinordi]

A strong NDP can only be considered a good thing for the CPC. Majority is definitely a possibility for them now with less than 40%. But what is really interesting is QC coming back into the national fold.

[Finner]

If those numbers hold you could see a Jack Layton led liberal/NDP coalition with more combined seats then the conservatives with 18% more popular support (~51% to 34%).

100 seats for NDP
69 for Liberals
and 130 for Cons

[Azure]

If Jack Layton becomes PM, this country is going to hell in a hand basket.

[Tinordi]

Numbers wont work that way Finner. That assumes that NDP and Liberals are independently strong in different ridings. What's most likely going on is Liberal ridings eroding to NDP support and NDP ridings getting stronger. It wont lead to a groundswell of new NDP seats with Liberal seats holding. If anything it will lead to more CPC seats through a run up the middle.

NDP only looks to make serious gains in QC (and possibly Atlantic).

[evman150]

Originally Posted by Finner

If those numbers hold you could see a Jack Layton led liberal/NDP coalition with more combined seats then the conservatives with 18% more popular support (~51% to 34%).

100 seats for NDP
69 for Liberals
and 130 for Cons

Nine seats for the Bloc?

Seems impossible...or is it?

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Originally Posted by Finner

If those numbers hold you could see a Jack Layton led liberal/NDP coalition with more combined seats then the conservatives with 18% more popular support (~51% to 34%).

100 seats for NDP
69 for Liberals
and 130 for Cons

It's Ekos, those numbers won't hold.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by evman150

Nine seats for the Bloc?

Seems impossible...or is it?

Utterly impossible.

[Azure]

It does seem impossible.

That being said, I don't think I would mind Layton being the official opposition, provided he can work with the Conservative majority. But I certainly don't want him in charge of the country.

[Tinordi]

Hard to put alot of stock into these numbers. I think many voters will "come home" to the Liberals in a week after the flirting period is over with the NDP.

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by Finner

If those numbers hold you could see a Jack Layton led liberal/NDP coalition with more combined seats then the conservatives with 18% more popular support (~51% to 34%).

100 seats for NDP
69 for Liberals
and 130 for Cons

nm

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Finner

If those numbers hold you could see a Jack Layton led liberal/NDP coalition with more combined seats then the conservatives with 18% more popular support (~51% to 34%).

100 seats for NDP
69 for Liberals
and 130 for Cons

yeah...as has been mentioned that scenario simply is impossible at this point...unless every major poll/pundit is off by about 200% on their projections.

For the CPC though...could be really really good news as the left is clearly splitting the vote unlike it ever has, and that may lead to a run through the middle for a CPC TD...or should I say majority.

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by Azure

It does seem impossible.

That being said, I don't think I would mind Layton being the official opposition, provided he can work with the Conservative majority. But I certainly don't want him in charge of the country.

If the Conservatives have a majority, then the opposition would have absolutely no power. That's the way our system works.

[transplant99]

Just looking at 308 it appears that all the lost Lib support has gone over to the NDP and where it is happening is more important than why it is happening...at least as far as seats go.

From todays added polls and anaylsis...

In Ontario, the Liberal vote has collapsed. It has dropped 7.1 points since April 18-20 and now stands at only 29.3%. The Conservatives are up three to 47.8% while the NDP is up 2.3 points to 16.9%, still below their 2008 performance. With a split like this, the Conservatives will have no problem winning a majority.


In Quebec, the NDP's rise is palpable. They're up 6.8 points to 30.2%, followed closely by the Bloc at 27.4% (-4.6). The Liberals are up 1.2 points to 22%, while the Conservatives are down 3.4 points to only 14.1%. That is a very low mark for them, though with the Bloc as weak as it is the Tories should still be able to elect most of their incumbent MPs.

Looking at Nanos's daily tracking charts, we can see that the Liberals have been dropping steadily for almost a week in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. The Bloc has also dropped for five straight days. The NDP has been rising in Ontario, but they still have some ways to go before they can win new seats

very significant.


the whole thing is going to come down to about 15 ridings in Ontario that are neck and neck and about 7 more in BC. If the CPC wins a majority of those (15 or so)...they cruise to a historic win for them. They currently lead or are statistically tied in 12 of them.

[MarchHare]

Yeesh, I don't want a Harper majority, but the thought of Prime Minister Layton scares me even more. Hopefully that poll is just an aberration.

As a fiscal conservative/social liberal, my ideal election result would be pretty much the same parliament we have now, prompting the following:

1. Harper fails to win a majority against a weak and divided left and is forced to resign
2. Ignatieff fails to improve on Dion's terrible seat count and is forced to resign
3. Layton makes no significant gains and resigns to focus on his health/family
4. None of the parties want another election until their leadership races are decided, so the interim leaders are forced to cooperate and make concessions for 3 years or so

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Yeesh, I don't want a Harper majority, but the thought of Prime Minister Layton scares me even more. Hopefully that poll is just an aberration.

As a fiscal conservative/social liberal, my ideal election result would be pretty much the same parliament we have now, prompting the following:

1. Harper fails to win a majority against a weak and divided left and is forced to resign
2. Ignatieff fails to improve on Dion's terrible seat count and is forced to resign
3. Layton makes no significant gains and resigns to focus on his health/family
4. None of the parties want another election until their leadership races are decided, so the interim leaders are forced to cooperate and make concessions for 3 years or so

You have to have a PM at all times IMO. Also I hate it when someone just assumes the position even though the system allows for it....so I would hate that ^^^ scenario as much as the whole coalition idea.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Yeesh, I don't want a Harper majority, but the thought of Prime Minister Layton scares me even more. Hopefully that poll is just an aberration.

As a fiscal conservative/social liberal, my ideal election result would be pretty much the same parliament we have now, prompting the following:

1. Harper fails to win a majority against a weak and divided left and is forced to resign
2. Ignatieff fails to improve on Dion's terrible seat count and is forced to resign
3. Layton makes no significant gains and resigns to focus on his health/family
4. None of the parties want another election until their leadership races are decided, so the interim leaders are forced to cooperate and make concessions for 3 years or so

That's the exact result that I hope to see!

[Slava]

Heres a summation of seat projections. Ekos is definitely an outlier when you scan through this list: http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/04/25/f...ensus-at-last/

[transplant99]

This one claims to have a 97% success rate in calling seats from 2008. This time they have the CPC just into a majority when averaging it all out.

CANADA
CPC – avg 157 seats (40.3%) – low 134 (38.8%), high 171 (41.8%)
LPC – avg 69 (25.3%) – low 54 (23.8%), high 84 (26.8%)
BQ – avg 42 (7.6%) – low 38 (6.1%), high 49 (9.1%)
NDP – avg 39 (21.0%) – low 33 (19.5%), high 49 (22.5%)
GPC – avg 0 (4.8%) – low 0 (3.3%), high 0 (6.3%)
OTH – avg 1 (1.0%)


http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2011/

and here is a breakdown of ridings...

http://democraticspace.com/canada201...rojections.pdf