2011 Blue Jays Season Thread

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Matty81

Reyes is looking scary again, 2 runs in the first will be lucky here.

I would bet Morrow will be taked off the DL fairly soon and Reyes going to be DFA'd.

[Matty81]

And reyes gets the hook after three innings +, 12 baserunners on 7 hits and 5 walks vs 9 outs, giving up only four runs was lucky. Gotta agree that he's gonzo if litsch has 1 more solid start. He kind of looks like bp pitcher, 89/90 mph fastballs most of the time right down the pipe, anything outside the zone batters see coming a mile away.

[Where ru Chris O'Sullivan]

Originally Posted by JayP

I thought a younger guy like Farrell would be a refreshing change with his bullpen management, but clearly it's just going to be more of the slave to the save stuff we've see for years here.

Why you decide to go with Janssen, who was called up from AAA just days before, to get you out of a 2-out jam in the 8th instead of Rauch is beyond me. That situation right there is the game - not the ridiculously easy 3-run lead save situation. The Jays won in spite of it, but bullpen management like this will cost the Jays games this year and their margin for error is razor thin is they want a sniff at the playoffs.

It's all mental, repetition and being consistent. Its much easier and better to have a Closer know that the 9th inning is his. 1,2 or 3 run lead, 1,2,3 or 7,8,9 hitters due up. That way they know, 9th inning is their domain and the other factors are not controllable (so why worry more).

Its also why so many teams now try to have an 8th inning "Setup" guy so they too, can have a more consistent schedule of work. I'm sure if you asked Veteran Closers about this, they'd prefer coming in at the start of the 8th and getting 6 outs vs. being asked 2x a week to come into a "8th inning 1,2 out Jam". These are Vets that have done this for 5+ years, imagine bringing in someone unproven or new to the role (like a Rauch), those Blown Saves would pile on early and often, bound to affect them the entire season. Even if you blow an 8th inning lead, you can still take back lead or win in the 9th, that is why shuting the 9th down is of MOST importance.

[transplant99]

Holy crap did Ellesbury just jack that ball.....wow.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Holy crap did Ellesbury just jack that ball.....wow.

This after a meeting on the mound..

Looks like JP said "you're falling behind, just throw it down the middle, it's the 9th placed batter!"

[puckluck]

Great play by the Jays stealing home, but wow did Rivera just give up on that run down. He pretty much just said "Meh, just tag me out. I'm too lazy to break a sweat."

[Sylvanfan]

Rivera also bothced that Lowrie fly ball in left, which basically allowed the Red Sox to have that big inning. Oh well there's a price for getting rid of Vernon Wells contract to be paid.

[puckluck]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Rivera also bothced that Lowrie fly ball in left, which basically allowed the Red Sox to have that big inning. Oh well there's a price for getting rid of Vernon Wells contract to be paid.

Yeah, but can't they just sit him? I'm not sure how that works, but is it that hard? must be a way to just not allow him to play. They must be seeing the same things that we are, and he's been a huge failure so far, and judging by his work ethic I doubt it will change.

[puckluck]

2 feet away from a homerun off the top of the wall, and only end up with a single. Damn, that park sucks.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Where ru Chris O'Sullivan

It's all mental, repetition and being consistent. Its much easier and better to have a Closer know that the 9th inning is his. 1,2 or 3 run lead, 1,2,3 or 7,8,9 hitters due up. That way they know, 9th inning is their domain and the other factors are not controllable (so why worry more).

Its also why so many teams now try to have an 8th inning "Setup" guy so they too, can have a more consistent schedule of work. I'm sure if you asked Veteran Closers about this, they'd prefer coming in at the start of the 8th and getting 6 outs vs. being asked 2x a week to come into a "8th inning 1,2 out Jam". These are Vets that have done this for 5+ years, imagine bringing in someone unproven or new to the role (like a Rauch), those Blown Saves would pile on early and often, bound to affect them the entire season. Even if you blow an 8th inning lead, you can still take back lead or win in the 9th, that is why shuting the 9th down is of MOST importance.

Relievers didn't seem to have a problem not having "consistency" in the 70's and 80's when their role was to get their team out of high leverage situations, not accumulate saves. Either way, a player should be worried more about what helps his team wins ball games and not only being put in situations where he's set up to succeed. You do that and those high leverage situations in the 7th and 8th go to mediocre pitchers and then the closer doesn't even get a chance to affect the outcome.

And I've never understood this notion that the 9th inning is some magical inning where only certain players can make outs. Apparently coming into the 9th inning with a 2 run lead is only something special veterans are capable of doing (ignoring the fact that giving up a 2 or 3 run lead in one inning of work is something that's hard for any MLBer to do).

And, no, it's ignorant to think that the 9th is always of most importance. Saying that if you blow the lead in the 8th you still have a chance to come back in the 9th is completely ridiculous. You do realize that the probability of scoring a run in one inning is 30%, right? So you're saying you're better off risking your lead in the 8th because you have a 30% chance of coming back in the 9th (which is probably even lower because the other team is using their best reliever)? The 9th can be of most importance, but to say that it always is is just wrong.

[Sylvanfan]

It's laughable how many managers will keep their best reliever on the bench with a one run lead, runners on 2nd and 3rd, and the opponents 2-3-4 hitters up next. But with a 3 run lead and the 7-8-9 guys due up, better get the top guy out. It's like these guys are running their own fantasy teams.

And all these stolen bases are nice and the like...but down 5 runs in the 8th inning...you need to sit back and wait for a 3 run home run to get back in the game. Trying to steal 3rd with none out and two on doesn't accomplish anything...I guess you potentially stay out of the triple play. I'll stay put and hope for the big bash.

[GirlySports]

Closers don't like coming in with runners on base.
They like to start an inning. Baseball's very procedural that way.

[Ziggy Lidstrom]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Closers don't like coming in with runners on base.
They like to start an inning. Baseball's very procedural that way.

I think to build trust you want to get the ball in your hands whenever, sure you'd like to come in to start a fresh inning, but teams in our division won't have that luxury a lot of the time.

Also, Mariano Rivera has been used in all types of situations during tight games. It just depends on the guy. The better he is at adapting the better he is regarded by his manager, team and then the opposition.

[Gozer]

I support a BJ Ryan "Closer" role because the role itself upgrades an average bullpen arm with pomp;
Gregg and Ryan were talented enough to be the fourth or fifth most talented reliever on their respective team. But if that's not mop-up work, then it means that those guys come in when the starter goes out, but those are often the most critical cirucumstances.

The heart of the batting order with RISP in the 7th isn't the most intense cirumstance for the bullpen. It's the most important, I agree with JayP there, but the team is on their heels and the crowd is tense. That is the time for a team to use it's best reliever (Downs).

The 9th inning has music blaring and an emotional crowd and the umpire wound-up.
The best example is Papelbon - super emotive pitcher on a veteran team with a wily fanbase. Home field advantage (via referreeing) is statistically supported and that is exactly the scenario - umpires are sucked into punching a guy on out to "reward" the crowd. It's not that they want Boston to win, it's just human nature to want people to cheer rather than boo you personally.

Paplebon had the stuff to make it regardless, but after Ryan had 39 saves after his surgery with an 88 MPH fastball and a slider - he would've been murdered as a clutch reliever. But if he is inserted into a less crucial role and (maybe) intimidates because of the role, his tangible skill-set is improved.

I don't think Frasor will ever be a closer because he's not imposing enough. Rauch, on the other hand, ties right into the achetype of "final boss."
And the value works on both sides, the diminutive Frasor is the assasin that strikes when things are at their worst with a fastball for a dager.
Maybe that is a construct of mine, I'm ok with that.

As for JayP's argument about saves in the 70s - welcome to free agency. Relief pitchers want prestige and money, GMs want talent and justify their contracts with key stats.
And players absoutely want "roles" - want to plan their day and their focus around a specific starting time.

[habernac]

Ouch, Daisuke is 1 hitting the Jays through 7 and it's 8-0. What a putrid road trip. Since the crappy call in Anaheim, it's been all downhill.

[Gozer]

Pardon some rosterbation:

Projected 2012 salary structure (rough math from Cot's)
OF - Snider/Joey Bats/Davis/backup = $20M combined
IF - Lawrie/Escobar/Hill/Lind/Hechavaria = $19M combined
C - Arencibia + veteran = $1M
SP - Romero/Morrow/Drabek/Cecil = 12-15M
RP - too many options to guess, but likely no less than 10

2011 Trade candidates: MacDonald, Edwin, veteran relievers
Expired & Gone: Molina, Rivera
================================================== ========
So we're looking at $65M for the returning roster, flipping some veterans and moving some main peices (Hill, Francisco) could drop it to 50 with most the main roster intact.

This team has more flexibility then I know what to do with - I can't get past adding Pujols to this roster.

[Gozer]

Purcey moved for Farquar - the pitcher sent to the A's in the Rajai Davis deal.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/0...id-purcey.html

[jeremywilhelm]

Jay's really fell back to earth on this road trip. I don't think I can handle another 140 games of getting stomped on. Today was very fustrating.

[puckluck]

What time did this game start?

The Jays are the opposite of the Leafs. They give you hope early instead of late in the season like the Leafs.

I know it's early, but this Jays team isn't going anywhere with their pitching and defence. They can steal as many bases as they want and play with the heads of opposition pitchers while on base, but they can't stop a nose bleed!

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Gozer

As for JayP's argument about saves in the 70s - welcome to free agency. Relief pitchers want prestige and money, GMs want talent and justify their contracts with key stats.
And players absoutely want "roles" - want to plan their day and their focus around a specific starting time.

I completely agree with you - I just disagree with the philosophy.

I get that players want roles and consistency, but in the end the manager should be more worried about what will win more ball games. As a comparison, all hockey players would love to be the guy who gets huge powerplay minutes, no PK time, and starts most of his shifts in the offensive zone. It puts him in a position to succeed statistically which gives him the prestige and money you mentioned. But while that sort of scenario works when you have the Sedins, it doesn't quite work as wellwhen you're the Panthers and Stephen Weiss is your big gun.

The way closers are used today is the same situation - give one or two guys a nice cozy situation and they almost always succeed statistically. The problem is that reserving all those situations for a couple players means that more difficult, less-heralded situations fall to lesser players. Shouldn't the best relievers always pitch in the most difficult situations (considering rest and other factors)?

Players might want roles, but those roles aren't always beneficial to the team. And as the best players in the world they should be able to adapt to whatever situation the team needs them in.