2011 Federal election polls, demographics, predictions

[Resolute 14]

If you look at their regional breakdowns, the numbers get even more ridiculous. Greens at 20% support in BC? Looks like Atlantic Canada is driving much of the "other" vote - do they have a big name running as an independent out there?

Though I was surprised that even Nanos showed the Greens over 10% in BC... but negligible everywhere else.

[burn_this_city]

Theres lots of hippies in BC, my uncle is surely voting green, its his favorite color.

[transplant99]

I'd like to see one of these polling companies ask the question of decided Lib voters... "if the Liberals agreed before the election to form a coalition that included the NDP and the BQ, would you still vote for them"...and see what their numbers would be after that.

I have a feeling it would knock them down into 3rd behind the NDP.

[transplant99]

Latest numbers show a pretty significant swing for the Libs and NDP....almost back to exactly where it was pre-disolution.

Since Friday, the Conservatives have dropped 0.3 points to 38.7% and three seats to 149, the lowest they've stood in this campaign so far. The Liberals have dropped 0.2 points to 28%, but because of gains in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada the party is up five seats to 78. That's a gain of one seat since the government fell.

The New Democrats were buoyed today by some great polls for them from online pollsters Léger and Angus-Reid, and they are up 0.8 points in the projection to 17.6%. Long-time readers will know that is a huge update-to-update change at the national level. They are also up one seat to 34.

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I'd like to see one of these polling companies ask the question of decided Lib voters... "if the Liberals agreed before the election to form a coalition that included the NDP and the BQ, would you still vote for them"...and see what their numbers would be after that.

I have a feeling it would knock them down into 3rd behind the NDP.

I would support a coalition of any combination of Liberals, NDP, Conservatives, or Greens (lol). Just not the Bloc.

As long as the coalition represented a majority in parliament and wasn't just one minority government replacing another, I'd be all for it at this point. We need a parliament that works and if a coalition is the means to the end, then great... let's do it.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I would support a coalition of any combination of Liberals, NDP, Conservatives, or Greens (lol). Just not the Bloc.

As long as the coalition represented a majority in parliament and wasn't just one minority government replacing another, I'd be all for it at this point. We need a parliament that works and if a coalition is the means to the end, then great... let's do it.

Completely and totally agree. It would be absurd to have a seperatist party having any say in forming the laws of the land, but beyond that they should all figure it out.

At this point it will have to include the CPC and then who ever can swallow pride and suck it up to do what is best for the country. It seems unfathomable at this point that the Liberals would agree, so it comes down to the NDP. Im not sure that Layton will stick around much longer regardless of the results of this election, so maybe broker a deal with the CPC to sit with them and have both sides agree on the next leader for them who then gets a portfolio and a real say in things moving forward.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Completely and totally agree. It would be absurd to have a seperatist party having any say in forming the laws of the land, but beyond that they should all figure it out.

At this point it will have to include the CPC and then who ever can swallow pride and suck it up to do what is best for the country. It seems unfathomable at this point that the Liberals would agree, so it comes down to the NDP. Im not sure that Layton will stick around much longer regardless of the results of this election, so maybe broker a deal with the CPC to sit with them and have both sides agree on the next leader for them who then gets a portfolio and a real say in things moving forward.

I would include the CPC in the "swallow their pride" sentiment though. They could've done just that over the past term and decided to go it alone instead.

Without forming a legitimate coalition though the BQ will always have a say in the laws of the land. There is not much that can be done about that at this point; they are going to win a bunch of seats in Quebec and the only way to take that power is to beat them there.

[transplant99]

I would include the CPC in the "swallow their pride" sentiment though. They could've done just that over the past term and decided to go it alone instead.

there isnt a single bill they could have passed going it alone. They did work with at least one other party obviously. They just aren't going to bend to any old demand from the minority opposition, they earned the right to have the bigger voice afterall.

This is about the Libs and/or the NDP doing some compromising and not all of it falling on the CPC...THATS how a minority government can work, not just the other way around.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by transplant99

there isnt a single bill they could have passed going it alone. They did work with at least one other party obviously. They just aren't going to bend to any old demand from the minority opposition, they earned the right to have the bigger voice afterall.

This is about the Libs and/or the NDP doing some compromising and not all of it falling on the CPC...THATS how a minority government can work, not just the other way around.

The CPC needs to recognize that they are going to have to make some concessions though if they don't win a majority. At this point they keep coming back to the idea that the party with the most seats gets to form a government....that sounds good, but its not entirely true. People are not going to want another election in 6 months, so if the CPC wins the most seats and still a minority its incumbent upon them to form a coalition and attempt to work with another party. For them to "govern like they have a majority" is just putting us back at the polls.

[transplant99]

The CPC needs to recognize that they are going to have to make some concessions though if they don't win a majority.

They did in the last budget....just wasn't enough for the Dippers.

At this point they keep coming back to the idea that the party with the most seats gets to form a government....that sounds good, but its not entirely true

It has always been true in Canada...except one instance 130 years ago.

People are not going to want another election in 6 months, so if the CPC wins the most seats and still a minority its incumbent upon them to form a coalition and attempt to work with another party

And the Libs or the NDP are going to have to support some CPC initiatives...it works both ways.

For them to "govern like they have a majority" is just putting us back at the polls.

yep.

[old-fart]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

OK, so why don't we agree to this:
1. Academics sometimes have to leave Canada, because there are better opportunities in the U.S. (this is just a fact)
2. Living in the U.S. for a while doesn't make you less Canadian. In fact, such an attitude is provincial and dumb.
3. Living in the U.S. also doesn't make you MORE Canadian. That would be even dumber.
4. The fact that Ignatieff happens to have chosen a career in the academy has no bearing on his trustworthiness, Canadianness, or any other substantive character that might have any bearing on his preparation for Canadian politics.

If we can agree on that, then I think we can finally drop all this nonsense. That is, if Harper quits beating on it like a broken drum.

Totally agree.

However, comparing our flag to a beer label while living abroad, referring to himself as an American repeatedly, claiming the United States as "his country", and slagging our military and their achievements definitely makes him "less Canadian" than most.

[old-fart]

New Leadership Numbers are out this afternoon from Nanos - Steve and Jack both up, Iffy tanking to near record lows for the Libs after an 11.4% drop.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by old-fart

New Leadership Numbers are out this afternoon from Nanos - Steve and Jack both up, Iffy tanking to near record lows for the Libs after an 11.4% drop.

Yikes.

Ignatieff is trending Dion like leadership numbers.

In the last election in one day it looks like Dion dropped from 48 to 32 points on the Nanos poll.

[transplant99]

Stunning to me to see that the NDP are polling closer to the Liberals than the Liberals are polling to the CPC.

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

[Resolute 14]

Latest EKOS poll is interesting, as it is showing the Tories beginning to pull away from the Liberals:
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-conte...il_18_2011.pdf

Of note, they report a slight decline in support in Alberta for the Conservatives, who are trending upward in both Ontario and Quebec. They have the NDP taking support from both the Liberals and Bloc, while the Greens have fallen back to earth a bit in BC. As of right now, they have the NDP as the second party in Quebec, Conservatives as the third and Liberals in fourth.

Harris-Decima, on the other hand, has the Tories losing a bit, but still with an 8 point lead nationally. They are also showing the NDP trending upward overall. But in Quebec, it is BQ, Lib, PC, NDP:

http://www.harrisdecima.ca/sites/def...-18-en1136.pdf

In short, polls are useless.

[Slava]

Here Andrew Coyne averages out a number of polls and gives some seat projections. His names for the parties are amusing as well:http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/04/18/y...-have-arrived/

[transplant99]

Jack Layton's New Democratic Party has surged past Gilles Duceppe's faltering Bloc Quebecois and is now in first place in Quebec, according to an Ekos public opinion poll released exclusively to iPolitics.


The poll, conducted earlier this week, found the New Democrats have jumped 10 percentage points since the eve of the leaders debate to 31.1 per cent while the Bloc has dropped like a rock by 7.4 percentage points to 23.7 per cent.


The Liberals are steady at 20.6 per cent while the Conservatives have dropped slightly to 16.9 per cent.


While the margin of error is higher at the city level, in Montreal the NDP is at 32.9 per cent while the Bloc is at 29.7 per cent.


Nationally, the NDP is now in a statistical tie with the Liberals at 24.9 per cent to 25.8 per cent. Both lag well behind the Conservatives who were preferred by 34.5 per cent of respondents.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/de...#ixzz1K9gkLL3R

[Resolute 14]

I'd be inclined to say that is an outlier, but even Nanos has NDP up 5 points in the last three days - and the Liberals down 3.5.

Very interesting.

[old-fart]

If it's an outlier, there are two of them - both Ekos and Crop have polls out today showing huge gains by the NDP in Quebec. The daily Nanos poll, while not as stark, also shows gains for the NDP while the Libs are slipping. Cons remain flat.

Should be interesting to see if this trend continues, and what if any impact it has on the seat projections as the NDP steal votes from the Bloc in PQ and from the Libs everywhere else.

Iffy really has been a dud.

[CaptainCrunch]

The Quebec numbers for the NDP are stunning, even Duceppe looked shocked this morning.

This throws a whole new spiral into the election.

I think unless something miraculous happens that we're going to be sitting with a similar seat alocation after this election. It looks like the Conservatives might gain a few, but not enough for a majority, The Liberals might be in line for about the same or slightly less seats, the NDP will gain, and the bloc will maybe lose some seats.