2011 Federal election polls, demographics, predictions

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Yeah...really noticeable and i wonder why that is? Obviously they are polling different areas or different segments of the population.

IFF is good at explaining thi stuff...maybe he will chime in.

Well, thanks for that. As a disclaimer, I tend to know more about polling and politics in the US, but I can offer some explanations for effects like that, most of which are similar to what Resolute posted. Also, I'm no expert on this stuff--this is just what I've gleaned from spending way too much time prognosticating on the internet.

My understanding is this: the methodology of doing a poll is a bit more complicated than people realize--it's not simply a matter of calling up 800 random people, interrupting their dinner and asking a bunch of questions. Pollsters have demographic "targets" that they try to meet--so many young people, so many members of each party (at least in the US they do this--it would make less sense in Canada), so many seniors, etc. etc.

If you don't do this, you wind up with a great deal of statistical variation among polls--you could get vastly different results from week to week, and the reason might be something way outside your control--like, for instance, Matlock was on, so seniors didn't answer the phone, and you had too many young people skewing the sample.

But each pollster does this a little differently, and as a result you can get a "house effect" where a pollster seems to consistently show a slightly higher or lower percentage for a particular party. This isn't the same as "bias" because it's not produced deliberately, it's just an effect of the methodology they use, and it's only "wrong" as compared to the mean findings of other pollsters.

What it means in practice is that one should try to compare apples to apples. If Ipsos-Reid has the Tories at 35% on April 15th, and Decima has them at 28% on April 25th, that may indicate a house effect from one or both, and not a "trend." If two Ipsos-Reid polls a week apart show the same trend, that is a bit stronger (though still not absolutely determinative).

Hope that helps. I'm sure there are tons of people around who know way more about this stuff than I do--I'm not even a statistician, just a political junkie.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

As for my prediction, it is twofold:

1.It will take about 43% of the vote for Harper to get a majority, slightly more than it would take for a party that was stronger in Central Canada.
2. Harper will get his majority. There's a reason the Tories seem so confident right now--these guys aren't fools.

[HOZ]

3 things. Three of four national leaders, Elizabeth May is not a leader, are replaced 1 year after the election. Darth, Dooshbag, and Iggy are done.

Conservatives have another minority which lasts for a year.

[Resolute 14]

Forum Research poll suggests the Liberals' ethics complaints are not resonating with voters. First poll since the election call:
Tories 41% (162 seats, majority government)
Liberals 24% (61 seats)
NDP 19% (51 seats)
Bloc 10%

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/To...350/story.html

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

As for my prediction, it is twofold:

1.It will take about 43% of the vote for Harper to get a majority, slightly more than it would take for a party that was stronger in Central Canada.
2. Harper will get his majority. There's a reason the Tories seem so confident right now--these guys aren't fools.

I think normally this would be true, but there is a real issue for the left this time and that is vote-splitting like they haven't had to worry about before. It seems like the ultra-left Libs will head towards the NDP in a lot of cases, while the centrist Libs may head towards the Tories.

Obviously the Libs need a whole lot of help in Ontario to remain anywhere close to forming the opposition, but look at their numebrs in Quebec and I can see them falling to 3rd in the seat numbers. If the Ont. vote swings even a few seats to either the NDP or the CPC...its lights out for the Liberals.

Though again...its very early.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

I probably agree, but for discussion sake, i think people in the Conservatives' camp are underestimating how ticked off upper-middle class + are in Edmonton over the World Expo bid.

Toss in the morons that will vote for the libs because Ignatieff will give money for the arena and a couple of Edmonton seats are in play.

People really care about Expo? I remember Calgary bid and lost Expo 2005 and I don't think anyone cared.

The arena could get a few votes but in the overall scheme of things sports fans make a very small segment of the population. I don't think 'getting an arena' is a cry that will get people off their butts.
I also predict a small Conservative majority. 161 seats.

transplant: can't see the libs falling below the NDP. they would have to get less than 60? I've seen rejections of a government from majority to nothing (Kim Campbell) but I've never seen a rejection of a current opposition party to those levels, especially in times of recession.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I think normally this would be true, but there is a real issue for the left this time and that is vote-splitting like they haven't had to worry about before. It seems like the ultra-left Libs will head towards the NDP in a lot of cases, while the centrist Libs may head towards the Tories.

Obviously the Libs need a whole lot of help in Ontario to remain anywhere close to forming the opposition, but look at their numebrs in Quebec and I can see them falling to 3rd in the seat numbers. If the Ont. vote swings even a few seats to either the NDP or the CPC...its lights out for the Liberals.

Though again...its very early.

You could be right. Vote-splitting in the East could be bad news for the Liberals, especially in Ontario and the maritimes.

Of course, the Tories and Liberals are both going to get wiped out in Quebec. Harper because of the "coalition" talk, and Ignatieff, well, because they just don't like him all that much. That means the Liberals have to kill Ontario, and I don't even think they're ahead at the moment, let alone in position to take 90 seats there.

So, in that case, you're probably right--and 41% is likely enough for a majority.

[Slava]

How much of that 41% is inflated because of the regions though? This is what always happens. The CPC wins a riding 65-35 and it makes no difference if they win that riding 80-20. Looks better on paper though!

[transplant99]

Nanos with a summary of the first week...

At the conclusion of the first week of the 41st Federal Election campaign, the Conservatives have modestly widened their lead over the Liberals who have remained stagnant (perhaps even slipped slightly). Joining the Conservative Party in forward movement is the NDP who saw a significant bump up in support, largely at the expense of the Green Party and, to a lesser extent, the Liberals.

So despite a week that much of the media thought went not so well for the ruling party, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives find themselves in a significantly more comfortable position today than when the writ was dropped. In fact, their 36.9 to 26.2 advantage over the Liberals may understate their hidden advantage in the regional and demographic patterns underlying this 10.7-point lead. They have opened up a large and meaningful advantage in seat rich Ontario and their constituency is much more weighted to older voters (boomers and seniors who are far more likely to vote than younger voters).

For the Liberals, who seemed to have a good week with the media, these numbers will be quite dispiriting. They really haven’t fallen back much, but see themselves making no progress while both the Conservatives on the right and the NDP on the left have advanced somewhat. Their only comfort here is that there has been no improvement in the directional numbers for the federal government and the sense that the country is on the right trajectory is quite low and declining. In fact, outside of Conservative supporters (only 10% of whom are unhappy with federal direction), about 70% of other party supporters are dissatisfied with the direction of the federal government. Somewhat concerning for the Liberal Party, however, is the fact that their supporters show relatively higher levels of ambiguity about national direction.

[Stranger]

^ It's funny how this week every time I watched CTV or CBC they always showed the Liberals first and said what a good week it's been for them.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Stranger

^ It's funny how this week every time I watched CTV or CBC they always showed the Liberals first and said what a good week it's been for them.

Well, a good week in the media will tend to lag in the polls.

However, the regional numbers just show why Harper wanted an election so badly in the first place. They have a huge structural advantage. Given the Liberal annihilation that's on the horizon in Quebec, I'm more convinced than ever that we're looking at a Tory majority. The NDP is probably going to lose half their seats, and the Grits will form the official opposition.

[octothorp]

It's been an incredibly slow start to the election when it comes to polls. Other than the Nanos dailies, there's only three other polls to have be done since the call (Abacus, Ekos, and Leger). Decima has been largely silent (or if they have released polls, I haven't seen it in the media or on their website). I could be wrong but it seemed like last time around, we had a few pollsters doing dailies, and everyone else having a new poll every 3 days.

[temple5]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Nanos with a summary of the first week...

Weird, yesterday CTVNN had NANOS with 41.7 for Cons.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by temple5

Weird, yesterday CTVNN had NANOS with 41.7 for Cons.

I could be wrong, but I believe that the numbers that Nanos uses in its three-day rollers are amongst decided voters only, while those numbers from the week-in-review seem to be amongst all voters.

[octothorp]

The big jump the Liberals got early last week has all but disappeared in the Nanos three-day roller, but some interesting things come out in looking at the regional polls: they're down significantly everywhere except Ontario, where they've narrowed the margin to 3%. Again, the only significant thing is whether these trends hold.

With the Liberals releasing their platform today, this week will be hugely important for them. They can't win the election this week (I'd argue they can't win the election at any point) but they can certainly lose it.

For the Conservatives, they need to hope that the recent change in numbers in Ontario is just a blip and not something that holds or grows. On the bright side, the overall trends in Atlantic Canada have been great for them, so the lower churchhill funding announcement seems to have its desired effect.

[Canada 02]

Torries at 42.3% in the Nanos poll after this weekend

http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.c...l_1261344a.pdf

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle1969494/

the next poll on Wed. ought to be interesting to see if the Lib. platform released yesterday has any impact

[CaptainCrunch]

All parties trending down, with the conservatives trending up. The Lib platform released yesterday was basically a summary of the stuff that they promised earlier last week with the exception of the Vet tuition stuff, so Canadian's have had a pretty good chance to absorb where the Liberal's are going.

I think the next significant change in polling happens in the leadership debates.

[Parallex]

Harris/Decima: 7 point lead for the Tories

http://www.harrisdecima.com/news/rel...ves-lead-seven

[transplant99]

This morning the latest Harris-Decima was added to the projection (removing, where needed, the previous Harris-Decima poll that partly overlapped with some of the regional results in this newest release). The results of the update are a few seat gains for the Conservatives, and a few vote gains for the Liberals.

With a gain of two seats, the Conservatives now stand at 154, exactly half of the seats in the House of Commons. However, they have also dipped 0.2 points nationally to 38.6%. The Liberals, meanwhile, are unchanged at 71 seats but have gained 0.5 points (a relatively large gain in the projection). They now have the projected support of 27.6% of Canadians.

The New Democrats drop the two seats, and now stand at 32. They are also down 0.1 points to 16.8%. The Bloc Québécois is unchanged at 9.4% nationally and 51 seats, while the Greens are down 0.1 points to 6.4%

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

[Slava]

154/154 would be awesome.