2011 Federal election polls, demographics, predictions

[octothorp]

While the election thread that we have is great, I'm going to start another one with a different focus: discussion about polls, demographics, and predictions.
I'm going to start this off with some helpful links:

Laurier Institute has very good election coverage:
http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/
They do some seat projections using a regional swing model.
Their interactive map is also very well done.

I also like this site from SFU:
http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/
They've got good polling data, broken down by region. (LISPOP has the same data, but doesn't seem to be updated as regularly)

Another site to keep an eye on is the Election Prediction Project, which attempts to predict results on a seat by seat basis. At this point it's not really useful as it as 75 seats rated too-close to call, but it's good for getting a sense of where the battles are likely to be.
http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_fed/index.php

Wikipedia isn't a bad source for general election info either. I find it a good place to look up riding histories and such:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadia...election,_2011

Post your favorite election data links in this thread.




As well, I'm sure this is going to fall on deaf ears, but:
Please try to keep this thread free of your own opinions on candidates, parties or policies. Or if your argument requires you to state your own opinion, please label it as such. Discussion about how policies or platforms might affect various demographics is welcome, just try to avoid generalizing. I know lots of us have strong political opinions (which is great), but that's not the point of this thread.

[octothorp]

First up, the Laurier Institute's projection today of a Conservative majority. Of course, it should be pointed out that this isn't a firm prediction by them, it's just an extrapolation based on the last three polls (by Ipsos, Nanos, and Harris Decima, all conducted over the last two weeks).

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/seatprojections.html

It assumes a 10 point lead in Ontario. I'm don't think that's an accurate depiction of what the margin is right now. The Harris-Decima (by far the largest of the three) put the lead in Ontario at just 1 point, while the Nasos and Ipsos ones had it at 16% and 12% respectively. This is a massive disparity, and going back over the previous months, Nanos and Ipsos tend to have wider margins in Ontario, while Decima and Ekos (the two with the largest sample sizes) have been much closer.

My question is whether it's an advantage or disadvantage to be in majority territory too early? I think the Tories have to like the numbers they're seeing in the polls right now, but the focus of the debate will likely become whether the country is ready for a Harper majority, and the coalition card becomes more difficult to play (since even a three-party coalition wouldn't be able to form a government, based on these projections). At the same time, it's great for the Tories that they'll have a very fired-up base.

[Freeway]

Threehundredeight.blogspot.com is also a strong polling site.

[HOOT]

My only prediction is I won't be voting, but will be using my 4hrs off to go to the strip club and get wasted.

[shermanator]

My prediction: The government wastes $300 million dollars to obtain the same result: A Convservative minority government

[CaptainCrunch]

The Conservatives will game more seats but miss out on a majority.

The Liberal's will bleed seats

The NDP will gain seats on the back of the Liberal's

The Bloc will stay about the same.

The Greens will come out of the election without a seat.

We see at least three party leaders resign after the election.

[mykalberta]

If the last 3 elections are any indication the CPAC polling guys is leaps and bounds better than the other guys.

This is the guy they use - I have very closely watched polling for the last 3 elections and he is the only one worth relying on for polling information.

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/ (Nanos Research)

[The Goon]

Thanks for compiling all these reference sites - I enjoy reading all the predictions and seat counts during elections.

[worth]

Do you have any pictures? I was hoping to see some cool election poll graphs or something. It's Friday, and I'm not drunk, and everyone has gone home, but I have a pile of work to do that I'm kind of procrastinating at, but it has to be done tonight, so I was kind of hoping there would be pictures in this thread, but there's just a bunch of words that I'm not going to read. Man I wish I was drunk.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by worth

Do you have any pictures? I was hoping to see some cool election poll graphs or something. It's Friday, and I'm not drunk, and everyone has gone home, but I have a pile of work to do that I'm kind of procrastinating at, but it has to be done tonight, so I was kind of hoping there would be pictures in this thread, but there's just a bunch of words that I'm not going to read. Man I wish I was drunk.

Insert masterbation joke here

[Resolute 14]

There is actually a specific article on Wikipedia featuring the polling results since 2008:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...deral_election

It is interesting to see the results over time, as it seems Ipsos Reid and Nanos often show far larger Tory support than Harris-Decima and Ekos do.

[Savvy27]

Watching the At Issue panel from a short time ago, Allan Gregg from Decima made an interesting point about the diminishing reliability of polls. The response rate from phone interviews is down to 15-20%, so the pollsters are now trying to cobble together different methods of data collection. That makes it very difficult for them to be able to say with any kind of certainty that the polling data they produce is an accurate representation of public opinion.

I'm really interested to see how this election plays out. I'm curious to see if the corruption accusations stick or if the economic good news dominates the minds of voters.

[killer_carlson]

I will predict a small conservative majority, with the major gains being in Ontario, Liberals and NDP each get a seat in Alberta.

[Resolute 14]

I would be absolutely shocked if the Liberals take a seat in Alberta. A Tory sweep is more likely.

[killer_carlson]

I probably agree, but for discussion sake, i think people in the Conservatives' camp are underestimating how ticked off upper-middle class + are in Edmonton over the World Expo bid.

Toss in the morons that will vote for the libs because Ignatieff will give money for the arena and a couple of Edmonton seats are in play.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

There is actually a specific article on Wikipedia featuring the polling results since 2008:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...deral_election

It is interesting to see the results over time, as it seems Ipsos Reid and Nanos often show far larger Tory support than Harris-Decima and Ekos do.

Yeah...really noticeable and i wonder why that is? Obviously they are polling different areas or different segments of the population.

IFF is good at explaining thi stuff...maybe he will chime in.

[Resolute 14]

Selection bias, the questions they are asking, how they interpret the answers, probably many things. I should try to find the poll results leading into the 2008 election and see where reality ended up between those two extremes.

[CampbellsTransgressions]

Devinder Shory will likely be voted in again for Calgary Northeast solely because he's the conservative candidate. I don't have problems with him just because of the allegations of being a part of a mortgage fraud scheme, it goes deeper with how he was originally elected into the conservative party.

[killer_carlson]

Why don't we get a poll right and see people's predictions?

Conservative Healthy Majority
Conservative small majority
Conservative minority, form government
Conservative minority, coalition forms government
Liberal Majority
etc

[Resolute 14]

Angus Reid has the Conservatives up 39-25 on the Liberals. NDP at 19, Bloc 10 and Overrateds 7.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/p...lls-may-2?bn=1

Also of note from that story:

Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff’s approval rating sits at 19 per cent — about the same as Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe on a national basis. That is barely half the 37 per cent approval rating garnered by both Harper and NDP Leader Jack Layton.


But the survey also shows only 26 per cent of voters want to see the Conservative party win a majority after five years.