Libya headed for civil war? Update: Gadhafi dead

[kirant]

Originally Posted by HPLovecraft

Gaddafi's talk about what he's going to do with Benghazi is mildly disturbing.

Mildly? I honestly wonder if any rational person will stay in Benghazi tonight.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by HPLovecraft

Sounds like they're going to abstain instead of veto. Even if they do abstain, I think this does the opposite of what you just said -- it shows the SC can actually get something done, albeit after agonizing amounts of talking and debating, and with it almost being too late.

This took way to long to happen, I doubt that the Rebel's are feeling grateful to an organization that took this long to decide to do something, and what happens if the Rebel's after getting aid from the air restart their offensive? Does the UN take sides against Ghaddaffi?

Also getting approval is one thing, the UN is terrible at controlling its own operations, I'm more interested in seeing what the command structure is going to be, and the formal ROE mandated by the UN.

[HPLovecraft]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

This took way to long to happen, I doubt that the Rebel's are feeling grateful to an organization that took this long to decide to do something, and what happens if the Rebel's after getting aid from the air restart their offensive? Does the UN take sides against Ghaddaffi?

Also getting approval is one thing, the UN is terrible at controlling its own operations, I'm more interested in seeing what the command structure is going to be, and the formal ROE mandated by the UN.

Once the wording of the resolution is released in full, I think the question of whether the UN will take sides against Gaddaffi in a counter-attack will be shown (and it will obviously be "no"). It seems to be centered around the wording of civilian deaths -- which is a legit concern considering what Gaddafi is saying what he's going to do to the city when he gets it.

France seems to be the nation taking the lead in all of this -- I woudn't be surprised if it was coordinated under their command. Their FM says they would like to do it.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Would have been better if this happened a few weeks ago when the rebels were making advances towards Tripoli. I'm curious which Arab countries will be helping, I suspect Egypt and Iraq. I can't see the Saudi's participating.

Iraq doesn't have much of an airforce to speak of so I doubt that they're going to do much.

Egypt has a pretty good airforce in place with about 400 combat capable aircraft, but can they work under an integrated command structure? I don't know.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by HPLovecraft

Once the wording of the resolution is released in full, I think the question of whether the UN will take sides against Gaddaffi in a counter-attack will be shown (and it will obviously be "no"). It seems to be centered around the wording of civilian deaths -- which is a legit concern considering what Gaddafi is saying what he's going to do to the city when he gets it.

France seems to be the nation taking the lead in all of this -- I woudn't be surprised if it was coordinated under their command. Their FM says they would like to do it.

So at the end of the day Paris will become a Libyan protectorate?

[HPLovecraft]

Alain Juppe, French FM, is on Al-Jazeera right now at the UN.

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

[mikey_the_redneck]

Originally Posted by HPLovecraft

France seems to be the nation taking the lead in all of this -- I woudn't be surprised if it was coordinated under their command. Their FM says they would like to do it.

The Ghaddafi family is not too pleased about the french interfering with their business either.

Gaddafi’s son was then asked that as France was the first country to recognise the Interim Transitional National Council in Benghazi, what was his opinion of President Sarkozy.

Saif al-Islam: “Sarkozy must first give back the money he took from Libya to finance his electoral campaign. We funded it and we have all the details and are ready to reveal everything. The first thing we want this clown to do is to give the money back to the Libyan people. He was given assistance so that he could help them. But he’s disappointed us: give us back our money. We have all the bank details and documents for the transfer operations and we will make everything public soon.”

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/...our_money_back

[HPLovecraft]

Voting live now . . . I can't see anyone raising their hand to vote against it.

10 votes in favour
0 votes against
5 abstentions

It's a go!

Much celebration commences in Benghazi. Fireworks, even.

Al-Jazeera has pretty good coverage of this.

Gaddafi says:

This is craziness, madness, arrogance. If the world gets crazy with us we will get crazy too. We will respond. We will make their lives hell because they are making our lives hell. They will never have peace.

[HPLovecraft]

Some powerful video in Benghazi -- must be nice to know you're no longer alone (well, at least not if you're in the air).

[KootenayFlamesFan]

A draft version of a proposed resolution goes beyond a no-fly zone. It includes language saying U.N. member states could "take all necessary measures ... to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign occupation force."

It also condemns the "gross and systematic violation of human rights, including arbitrary detentions, enforced disappearances, torture and summary executions."

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa...ex.html?hpt=T1

[HPLovecraft]

Brazil, China, Russia, India, and Germany were the nations that abstained.

Germany, where have your cojones gone?!

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by HPLovecraft

Brazil, China, Russia, India, and Germany were the nations that abstained.

Germany, where have your cojones gone?!

Not global enough for them

[Red Ice Player]

Probably a column of tanks headed for Benghazi. Would make for some awesome strafing practice.

[CaptainCrunch]

There's now no doubt that Ghaddafi is going to accelerate any plans he has for Benghazi.

I expect that he knows that the no fly zone won't be in place right away so he needs to move.

I hope I'm wrong but there's going to be a slaughter tonight.

Once those tanks get in among the civilians they're screwed.

[HPLovecraft]

Libya thanking Germany for abstaining makes me a little bit ill.

"What a surprise." Laughs and giggles.

[HPLovecraft]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

There's now no doubt that Ghaddafi is going to accelerate any plans he has for Benghazi.

I expect that he knows that the no fly zone won't be in place right away so he needs to move.

I hope I'm wrong but there's going to be a slaughter tonight.

Once those tanks get in among the civilians they're screwed.

His ragtag army isn't going to be able to just waltz into Benghazi without opposition. Benghazi and Tobruk are said to be the two most highly fortified bastions of rebel control. They are big cities, and the rebels aren't armed with rocks and sticks. It will not be easy for Gaddafi, especially with morale swinging back to the rebel's side (which seems to be a big factor in this).

[HPLovecraft]

LOL at this Libyan press conference in response to the UN resolution.

Some people getting pissed in the crowd at the conference and speaking up when they say Libya will continue to protect civilians, and they want an international fact finding mission to enter the country (quite the change of face after Ghaddafi ranting about Benghazi and how they were going to enter each apartment and search each closet), and they start to say not to worry, it's just people proclaiming their allegiance to Gaddafi, don't worry. Lol, too funny. Quite the change of face by Libya realizing they're about to get bombed into submission.

And a "random" pro-Ghaddafi dance show breaks out with state TV taping the entire thing.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by HPLovecraft

His ragtag army isn't going to be able to just waltz into Benghazi without opposition. Benghazi and Tobruk are said to be the two most highly fortified bastions of rebel control. They are big cities, and the rebels aren't armed with rocks and sticks. It will not be easy for Gaddafi, especially with morale swinging back to the rebel's side (which seems to be a big factor in this).

I would agree, but the rebels don't have massive amounts of anti armour weapons, they have hand held RPG's and not much else that can stand up to a main battle tank.

If I was the Libyan Commander it would be a button down tank rush with main cannons taking down every building in range.

[HPLovecraft]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I would agree, but the rebels don't have massive amounts of anti armour weapons, they have hand held RPG's and not much else that can stand up to a main battle tank.

If I was the Libyan Commander it would be a button down tank rush with main cannons taking down every building in range.

It's been confirmed that the rebels have control of tanks and fighter jets captured from defecting units, although the numbers are unknown (as they are for the regime's forces, too). The jets were used on Wednesday, I believe, and the tanks are being used to fortify defensive positions.

And I would wager, with this UN resolution, if Libya attempted to roll through Benghazi with guns blazing, the people commanding the attack wouldn't be long for this Earth with all their limbs attached.

[HOZ]

I predict that now the real slaughter starts. Any holding back by Qadhafi, if there was any, will be thrown out the door for a full frontal assault to end it as quickly as possible or at worst place themselves in a position that there will be no turning back when the no fly zone comes.