Libya headed for civil war? Update: Gadhafi dead

[CaptainCrunch]

I remember that, and I remember that one of the American pilots accidentily dropped a bomb in France territorial waters when they were flying past France, because the French wouldn't allow the American Bomber Flights through their airspace which added hours to the flight and its return.

[Sainters7]

Gaddafi's son declares they will have defeated the rebels within the next 48hrs, as they close in on the rebel stronghold of Benghazi.

http://english.aljazeera.net//news/a...230683317.html

[CrusaderPi]

Originally Posted by Itse

Internet = people
UN resolution = somebody wants to do something (they're not going to pass this resolution if they can't enforce it, would make them look bad)
no-fly-zone over Libya = Gaddafi can't use his airforce to bomb the rebels and miscellaneous civilians, and UN relief planes can fly into the area if required.

Yeah "the internet is petitioning"... Talk about the dumb making stupid jokes about stuff they don't understand.

It's all well and good is people, even internet people, want to do some good. Hell, I'd prefer Gaddafi not bomb civilians too. But, if you think an internet petition asking the United Nations to pass a (non-binding?) resolution creating a no fly zone on Libya is an effective solution for the problem, well, you and me aren't going to see eye to eye on geopolitics.

[HPLovecraft]

Looks like there will be a no-fly zone over Libya, with the added ability of being able to target tank columns. The UN us expected to pass a resolution within hours. The US said they would only back it if a number of Arab states contribute. They will contribute planes, although they will not reveal their identities until after the resolution is passed.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011...united-nations

[CaptainCrunch]

Even if they do this no fly zone, its not like its going to be up over night,

The American's are going to have to stage air craft and munitions to the Middle East and North Africa, as are the British. I don't know if the French have much there anyways.

Its interesting to note that the U.S. Navy won't be involved from a aircraft standpoint.

Part of me is going oh boy, when it comes to the Rules of Engagement and bombing air force bases and tank columns because we know thats going to lead to civilian casualties and the U.S. will be labeled once again as the villians.

To me the best solution would have been for the Arab League to supply the manpower and aircraft, but they are going to be tepid about it because it will make them a enemy of Libya if the air inderdiction fails.

[HPLovecraft]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Even if they do this no fly zone, its not like its going to be up over night,

The American's are going to have to stage air craft and munitions to the Middle East and North Africa, as are the British. I don't know if the French have much there anyways.

Its interesting to note that the U.S. Navy won't be involved from a aircraft standpoint.

Part of me is going oh boy, when it comes to the Rules of Engagement and bombing air force bases and tank columns because we know thats going to lead to civilian casualties and the U.S. will be labeled once again as the villians.

To me the best solution would have been for the Arab League to supply the manpower and aircraft, but they are going to be tepid about it because it will make them a enemy of Libya if the air inderdiction fails.

The word is that air strikes will commence within hours of the resolution passing.

A number of Arab countries will be included in the mission -- the US wouldn't agree to the resolution unless a number of Arab nations contributed aircraft.

[northcrunk]

the resolution will be voted on within the hour, the US has ships stationed in the red sea/med. sea. Also they have bases in italy, sicily. Looks like the strikes will start soon after the resolution. The US has about 2000 marines in the area which might be able to hit the ground to protect Benghazi. http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

[HPLovecraft]

Originally Posted by northcrunk

the resolution will be voted on within the hour, the US has ships stationed in the red sea/med. sea. Also they have bases in italy, sicily. Looks like the strikes will start soon after the resolution. The US has about 2000 marines in the area which might be able to hit the ground to protect Benghazi. http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

The resolution includes wording that precludes any type of boots-on-ground involvement, except for the rescuing of downed pilots. Of course, that's never stopped anyone before . . . But I doubt you would see something as overt as those Marines landing unless something terrible, terrible happened.

[worth]

How do these different air forces communicate with one another?

I know that in NATO, we all use a lot of the same equipment and standardize technology to be interchangeable (like bullets) and aircraft communication systems, but if you involve arab nations, their equipment isn't going to be as advanced as NATO members. Anyone know how this will work.

Also, wouldn't think kind of set a prescient? NATO forces and other Arab countries bombing the same targets? That's crazy.

[Ozy_Flame]

I would bet my life savings on no ground forces (especially from the U.S.) in Libya. Air strikes are one thing, but escalating with an already stretched-thin U.S. military force is diplomatic suicide. If anything, there is going to be a no-fly zone with French and/or Arab League aircraft doing any sort of strikes.

Also keep in mind that NATO does not engage if even one member is against it.

That all said, I fully expect Russia and/or China to veto this. If they don't, it will be abstentions and will probably condemn an attack of any sort, further weakening the effectiveness of the Security Council.

[blankall]

Too little, too late? Is this really going to help the Libyan rebels at this point? If Ghaddafi can't use planes and tank columns, then I'm sure mortar fire and gattling guns will have to do.

[worth]

Also, why didn't anyone just arm the rebels a month ago? Why didn't the french give them shoulder fired anti aircraft weapons? Might make Libyan Fighters think twice about attacking civilians if the rebels had the means to fight back.

[northcrunk]

The resolution does allow 'protecting of citizens' with any force neccessary, millitary intervention will be allowed with this resolution

[HPLovecraft]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

I would bet my life savings on no ground forces (especially from the U.S.) in Libya. Air strikes are one thing, but escalating with an already stretched-thin U.S. military force is diplomatic suicide. If anything, there is going to be a no-fly zone with French and/or Arab League aircraft doing any sort of strikes.

Also keep in mind that NATO does not engage if even one member is against it.

That all said, I fully expect Russia and/or China to veto this. If they don't, it will be abstentions and will probably condemn an attack of any sort, further weakening the effectiveness of the Security Council.

Sounds like they're going to abstain instead of veto. Even if they do abstain, I think this does the opposite of what you just said -- it shows the SC can actually get something done, albeit after agonizing amounts of talking and debating, and with it almost being too late.

Originally Posted by northcrunk

The resolution does allow 'protecting of citizens' with any force neccessary, millitary intervention will be allowed with this resolution

That's the whole point of it.

[HPLovecraft]

Gaddafi's talk about what he's going to do with Benghazi is mildly disturbing.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by HPLovecraft

Sounds like they're going to abstain instead of veto. Even if they do abstain, I think this does the opposite of what you just said -- it shows the SC can actually get something done, albeit after agonizing amounts of talking and debating, and with it almost being too late.

Short-term gain for long-term pain. This will prove problematic when Russia and China hold grudges on future resolutions.

[CaptainCrunch]

I have a lot of concerns about this, I'm not saying I wouldn't want to help, I'm thinking there's more to just yelling Tallyho, whipping your scarve around your neck and lighting the fires.

Libya has the second most advanced anti aircraft defense grid in the region, behind Iran. They have everything from advanced to shoulder fired anti aircraft missiles, and a wack of anti aircraft artillary.

do the rules of engagment allow those to be targeted, even though a lot of those weapons are buried in civilian centers?

How quickly can these aircraft and airforces move into a heavy cycle high operational tempo and do they have the fuel and weapons in theatre to back them up.

Who's in overall command? I would hope its not the American's.

Does the American Airforce have enough AWAC capability to operate 24 hours a day?

How do all "Allies" communicate?

[HPLovecraft]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Short-term gain for long-term pain. This will prove problematic when Russia and China hold grudges on future resolutions.

You mean they haven't held grudges on pretty much all previous resolutions? I can't see this changing much, especially when we have no idea how they were convinced to abstain instead of veto. The West is for it, the Arab League is for it, what reasons do China and Russia have for not abstaining? Most oil firms in Libya are Western . . . if anything, maybe they'll have something to gain out of this without having to contribute anything.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by blankall

Too little, too late? Is this really going to help the Libyan rebels at this point? If Ghaddafi can't use planes and tank columns, then I'm sure mortar fire and gattling guns will have to do.

Mortars and artillary don't guarantee anything, and even the worst solider can protect himself from artillary.

Give the devil his due, Ghaddafi has made good use of his armor and aircraft to go in and clean out nests of rebels, especially since these rebels don't have much in the way of anti tank and anti aircraft weapons.

[burn_this_city]

Would have been better if this happened a few weeks ago when the rebels were making advances towards Tripoli. I'm curious which Arab countries will be helping, I suspect Egypt and Iraq. I can't see the Saudi's participating.