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Old 01-24-2010, 01:46 PM   #541
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I doubt that Conan will want to goto cable.

He wants to stay network and accessible to as large an audience as possible.
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Old 01-24-2010, 01:48 PM   #542
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Conan going to USA (and back to NBC-Universal) would be interesting. One advantage they have is a nice big studio that was recently built to hold a late night talk show sitting empty on the Universal Studios lot.

I would think the top of his list would be FOX because it is a broadcast network and would mean more money and a higher profile. The premium cable networks (HBO, Showtime) would be interesting because they could push the envelope a lot more and would be less reliant on ratings.
i honestly think that will be a huge factor in Conan's decision. as nice as getting a top rated talkshow on FOX would be, there's no guarantee that the wouldn't pull the same kind of crap on him that NBC did. with HBO he would have a lot more job security, at least for the first few years. wouldn't have to worry about pleasing local affiliates, and he wouldn't be a direct competitor to Leno or Letterman
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Old 01-24-2010, 02:21 PM   #543
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For anyone interested, here's a news article from 1994 which is an excerpt from The Late Shift.

http://www.nytimes.com/1994/01/30/ma...l?pagewanted=1
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Old 01-24-2010, 03:08 PM   #544
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Man, I would love it if Conan went to HBO. Just imagine how funny some of these skids could be if they were pushed to the max without having to tone it down for family television.
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Old 01-24-2010, 08:36 PM   #545
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  • Keeping Jay around at 10 means his fans would have little reason to stay up and watch the Tonight show.
Not of huge concern since not many people are fans of both.

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  • Yes ratings are the only factor when you run a business. Do what you need to do to keep improving them.
What matters actually is profitability, case and point Leno's 10 pm show, which had crap ratings but was making NBC money. Also Heroes, which is fighting for the worst ratings of any primetime drama, but is still on the air because it makes money through syndication, DVD sales, and international deals. Ratings ≠ profit.
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Old 01-24-2010, 09:44 PM   #546
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http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2010/01/dont...s_mistake.html
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Old 01-24-2010, 09:45 PM   #547
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What matters actually is profitability, case and point Leno's 10 pm show, which had crap ratings but was making NBC money. Also Heroes, which is fighting for the worst ratings of any primetime drama, but is still on the air because it makes money through syndication, DVD sales, and international deals. Ratings ≠ profit.
Syndication/dvd sales/deals only make money if the studio is affiliated with the ownership of the network.

For instance, House is shown on Fox but all it does is generate advertising revenue from high ratings. Fox receives no revenue from syndication rights, in fact it pays to show the show because House is actually produced by NBC studios.

For a drama in the 10PM timeslot to make money for NBC in DVD sales/distribution, it would have to not only be produced by an NBC/Universal owned studio, but it would have be successful enough to reach that threshold. Making DVDs of shows that don't have that many episodes is cheap and easy in this age but the syndication threshold is about 100 episodes (or 5 seasons).

For network TV, ratings are the most important because they have to satisfy the demands of all the national affiliates in every city. It was those affiliates who were unhappy with Leno not providing the ratings that dramas and comedies used to, and for not providing enough positive lead-in for their nightly news programs which are a significant chunk of affiliate revenue. They are the network and those small stations need the advertising revenue to survive.

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Old 01-25-2010, 12:02 AM   #548
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Yes you are right about House; that and The Mentalist are the only 2 big dramas that I can think of that qualify. Heroes however is produced in-house so it's a perfect example, only Chuck and Community are not produced by NBC. Your post remains valid though, and the dilemma I see for NBC and her affiliates is that they have nothing to put at 10 pm that can even pull the numbers Leno was. They can move SVU to 10 but that only takes care of one out of the five nights. So to me it almost seems like Leno should have stayed until NBC was confident in 10 pm programming to replace him.
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Old 01-25-2010, 12:38 AM   #549
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Old 01-25-2010, 01:18 AM   #550
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Conan going to USA (and back to NBC-Universal) would be interesting. One advantage they have is a nice big studio that was recently built to hold a late night talk show sitting empty on the Universal Studios lot.
Plus he would then have access to his intellectual property. That would be interesting.
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Old 01-25-2010, 07:06 AM   #551
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Neither did Conan for 4 months and no, people that watched the tonight show for years would continue to watch it. Unless they didn't like it anymore.
If every person that watched the Tonight Show was a huge comedy fan, you'd be right, but they aren't, so you're not. Most people who watch the comedy shows are just looking for a brief lighthearted diversion before they go to bed. They're either going to watch the Jay Leno show, the Tonight Show, or Letterman. They aren't going to spend two hours of each night watching two monologues, two bits, and 6 guest interviews.

When Johnny Carson left the Tonight Show, people had to decide what their new pre-bed diversion would be. Some people chose Letterman and some chose Leno. Eventually, most chose Leno. But when Leno left the Tonight Show, people knew that he'd be on at 10 within 3 months, so they never had to make a decision of who their new pre-bed diversion would be. Their decision to stick with Leno was made even easier by the fact that it would allow them to go to bed earlier, and Conan's ratings suffered. Letterman's ratings barely improved, so it's not like people just chose him over Conan - they just chose to follow Jay to 10pm. Leno going to 10 ensured that Conan would not succeed. NBC and Leno both deserve the blame for that.
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Old 01-25-2010, 07:40 AM   #552
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If every person that watched the Tonight Show was a huge comedy fan, you'd be right, but they aren't, so you're not. Most people who watch the comedy shows are just looking for a brief lighthearted diversion before they go to bed. They're either going to watch the Jay Leno show, the Tonight Show, or Letterman. They aren't going to spend two hours of each night watching two monologues, two bits, and 6 guest interviews.

When Johnny Carson left the Tonight Show, people had to decide what their new pre-bed diversion would be. Some people chose Letterman and some chose Leno. Eventually, most chose Leno. But when Leno left the Tonight Show, people knew that he'd be on at 10 within 3 months, so they never had to make a decision of who their new pre-bed diversion would be. Their decision to stick with Leno was made even easier by the fact that it would allow them to go to bed earlier, and Conan's ratings suffered. Letterman's ratings barely improved, so it's not like people just chose him over Conan - they just chose to follow Jay to 10pm. Leno going to 10 ensured that Conan would not succeed. NBC and
Leno both deserve the blame for that.
Did they chose Jay at 10pm though? I thought his ratings were in the toilet which is what caused this whole fiasco in the first place.
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Old 01-25-2010, 07:46 AM   #553
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Any video that works of the musical collaboration or Neil Young?

I was at the lake Ice Fishing so I didn't get to see the last show.. :/
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Old 01-25-2010, 07:51 AM   #554
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Did they chose Jay at 10pm though? I thought his ratings were in the toilet which is what caused this whole fiasco in the first place.
I've heard that his numbers at 10 were roughly the same as what he was pulling in at 11:35 (which is what NBC expected, and were okay with until the affiliates threatened to revolt).

The problem was that being a lead-in to the news, those numbers weren't acceptable to the local affiliates because the local news is the affiliates' main source of local revenue and their news ratings had dropped significantly because of Leno's lead-in.
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Old 01-25-2010, 07:54 AM   #555
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Did they chose Jay at 10pm though? I thought his ratings were in the toilet which is what caused this whole fiasco in the first place.
His ratings were higher at 10 than they were at 11:35, and I'd assume that most of those viewers were people who had previously watched the Tonight Show. It's just that what passes for good ratings at 11:35 doesn't cut it at 10. Also, people who watch shows like Law & Order are going to watch the entire show and still have NBC on when the local news starts, but a lot of the people who watched Leno at 10 would turn it off after the monologue or after the guests that they were interested in (just like people do with the Tonight Show), and they'd be long gone by the time the local news started. That's why the affiliates complained, and Leno at 10 had to go. It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if they'd cancelled Leno at 10 then given Conan another 6 months or so to see if he could bring those viewers back, but he never got the chance. Apparently a big reason for that was that Leno's contract was much better than Conan's, and the payout for cancelling him outright would have been more than double what it cost to buy out Conan.
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Old 01-25-2010, 09:56 AM   #556
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NY Post is reporting that Fox is ready to pounce on Conan...
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Old 01-25-2010, 09:56 AM   #557
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NY Post is reporting that Fox is ready to pounce on Conan...
Must have been wearing Sex Panther.
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Old 01-25-2010, 10:07 AM   #558
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Ratings for the last show:

O'Brien's last night as host of "The Tonight Show" drew a preliminary rating of 7.0, which translates to about 8 million households. But more impressive, he scored a 4.8 rating in the key demographic of viewers 18 to 49, one of the highest scores for any show at any time of night on network TV this year.

Jay Leno's finale as host of the "The Tonight Show" earned a final household rating of 8.8, topping O'Brien by about 2 million household

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/ente...finale_fr.html
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Old 01-25-2010, 10:13 AM   #559
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The demographic data has been talked about and is uber interesting. Hell, all the disagreement in this thread could be the age gap. I understand the business decision, however I still think it is short sighted.
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Old 01-25-2010, 10:21 AM   #560
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How are ratings calculated? Can they actually tell how many households are watching a program?
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