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Old 12-02-2008, 02:45 PM   #1221
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:46 PM   #1222
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I'm saying they already have what they want. What future decisions in the next year and half will require their input if they've already signed on their support? There's nothing more to see here. Move on.
put yourself in Duceppe's shoes, if I gave you a million bucks would you just say "oh goodness thanks dood!" and be on your way? or would you try to squeeze every dime out of my pocket if you had pictures of me sleeping with the boss' wife? (not exactly a parallel analogy but same idea, you know what I mean).
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:46 PM   #1223
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This will be the third time I've stated it in this thread. They're going to get a stimulus package which includes a bailout for auto, manufacturing, mining, and forestry. Pretty key economic things for Quebec.
And since the liberals have yet to say exactly what they are planning in their budget how do you know that this is it? And how much of the stimulus package goes to Quebec? Will other provinces with the same industries also get bailed out? The liberals have been fairly clear that they don't have any more of a plan than the conservatives. There is so much uncertainty with this coalition, right now the only thing that seems firm is the promises to Quebec to get the bloc on board.
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:47 PM   #1224
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put yourself in Duceppe's shoes, if I gave you a million bucks would you just say "oh goodness thanks dood!" and be on your way? or would you try to squeeze every dime out of my pocket if you had pictures of me sleeping with the boss' wife? (not exactly a parallel analogy but same idea, you know what I mean).
I see what you're saying but it will be difficult for him to do anything without having any cabinet positions. Sure, they could pull their support but the political consequences would be disastrous for them.
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:49 PM   #1225
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Just want to contrast the hilarity of these sites:

http://www.defendourdemocracy.ca/

Both ridiculous.
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:50 PM   #1226
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They have to get American support as a cap & trade system would not work in just Canada alone. About trusting the Bloc, it's more of a political thing, if they break their deal, they face electoral challenges which I'm sure they are aware of. Remember, all politicians are self-serving, I'm just outline why supporting this coalition is self-serving for them, and to betray it would cause political damage.

You got to step back and look at it analytically versus emotionally.
Easily done.

Quebecers who support the Bloc: "You promised to support the coalition until June 2010, but here we are in February 2009, and you've already withdrawn support. Why?"
Duceppe: "The Liberals and NDP made proposals that were not in the best interests of Quebec."
Quebecers who support the Bloc: "We love you!"

The Liberals have to worry about maintaining support of about 7 or 8 provinces.
The Bloc only 1.

Duceppe has only to convince his people that breaking the deal was in the best interests of Quebec, and he will face no backlash at all. He would, in fact, be in complete alignment with his party's stated goals and ideals.
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:50 PM   #1227
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I've said this before, but it bears repeating. The only motive that the Bloc needs to support the coalition is self-preservation. More than any other party right now, they cannot afford an election, and they cannot afford to see a Conservative majority, given the CPC has threatened. Combine that with the fact that Duceppe's support was down through most of the last election period, and that many Quebecers are questioning the relevance of voting for a party that has no actual participation in governance, and Duceppe's motives are clear: he, as much as anyone else involved, needs this coalition to work. He'll easily put his own and his party's welfare ahead of furthering any separatist agenda.

I still count him as opportunistic, and once the party coffers are filled and his support has rebounded, it won't be surprising to see him break with the coalition. But no, of course it makes much more sense that they were promised something! Something big!! Can we guess what it is? Is it a zeppelin?
Jumping in bed with the Federalists is considered self preservation for the Bloc? You can bet there will be a lot of unhappy seperatists in Quebec, unless of course the gains to Quebec are great enough to make them forget. Maybe this is all they are getting. Maybe not. Neither the Bloc nor the liberals really tend to have a strong history of truthfulness (although I suppose this is expected from politicians). Personally, I just can't help but fell like I am waiting for the other shoe to drop.
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:50 PM   #1228
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Should that not have buoyed Canadian markets too? We're pretty dependent on the Auto Sector.

As well, Bertuzzied, read Kevman's post.
I did.

But there were also oil stocks that dropped today. He listed 3 that went up.
There were oil stocks that went down too.

Suncor, Canadian Oilsands Trust and Husky.

Besides if the markets really thought the Coalition was an evil thing it would not only go down 67points. It would tank big time rather then drop .0094.
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:53 PM   #1229
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I see what you're saying but it will be difficult for him to do anything without having any cabinet positions. Sure, they could pull their support but the political consequences would be disastrous for them.
How would it be disastrous for them? There's only 2 possible outcomes if they don't get their way and threatens to pull the plug on the coalition:

a) Coalition gives in and the Bloc gets their way, Canada goes bankrupt

b) Coalition tells the Bloc to go eff themselves, plug is pulled, we get an election, Bloc keeps their usual 50-55 seats in Quebec, nothing is changed for them. (But this won't happen, the crooks in the coalition won't want to go into an election for the next 3 years at least)

so really, we're left with a), we lose our jobs and houses, and everyone lines up at the now bankrupt homeless hilton downtown. (I don't know if you're from Calgary btw, maybe you're from Quebec, in which case you will just laugh at us)
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:53 PM   #1230
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It is the banks. I think it was the liberals who asked that the breakfast nook commercial be made.

TD down $1.13
BNS down $2.47
BMO down $1.52
CM down $1.02(but that is prob due to the Stittler-Iggy commercial)
RY down $1.54
OK, fair enough...but I have a question so please learn me...

If the oil companies have bigger market caps than the banks and posted higher gains than the banks posted losses, how do the 5 banks have MORE pull on the TSX index than all of the oil companies? Again, I'm not trying to claim that the only reason the TSX is down is because of the coalition talk but IMO you'd have to be naive to think that the prospect of an unstable government does not rattle investor confidence a little, no?

For more clarificaiton... I'm not sayin the idea of a non-Conservative vs. a Conservative government hurt the TSX. I'm saying the idea of NO government STABILITY for either party can't help.

Or maybe I'm out to lunch here in which case I'll gladly admit I'm wrong...
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:53 PM   #1231
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quoted for hilarity
Hey do you know what that really says, or does it even make sense? I just did a google translate. My chinese totally sucks. i can only read 4 of those characters.
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:54 PM   #1232
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I did.

But there were also oil stocks that dropped today. He listed 3 that went up.
There were oil stocks that went down too.

Suncor, Canadian Oilsands Trust and Husky.

Besides if the markets really thought the Coalition was an evil thing it would not only go down 67points. It would tank big time rather then drop .0094.
I don't think it would plummet (right away). Don't get me wrong. I'm saying the uncertainty took a day that should have been a modest boost, and turned it into a modest loss. You're right, Heavy Oil is hurting right now with low Oil prices, to the point where its viability is in serious question.

The world is taking note, and are not impressed that the most secure economy in G8 currently has the most unstable government. That's all.
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:55 PM   #1233
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How would it be disastrous for them? There's only 2 possible outcomes if they don't get their way and threatens to pull the plug on the coalition:

a) Coalition gives in and the Bloc gets their way, Canada goes bankrupt

b) Coalition tells the Bloc to go eff themselves, plug is pulled, we get an election, Bloc keeps their usual 50-55 seats in Quebec, nothing is changed for them. (But this won't happen, the crooks in the coalition won't want to go into an election for the next 3 years at least)

so really, we're left with a), we lose our jobs and houses, and everyone lines up at the now bankrupt homeless hilton downtown. (I don't know if you're from Calgary btw, maybe you're from Quebec, in which case you will just laugh at us)
Well I wish I was from Quebec if this is the way things are going play out Born and raised and living in Calgary though. Maybe I'm just not so cynical. I'm still of the belief though that this coalition won't happen because the Conservatives will cave.
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:57 PM   #1234
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Just want to contrast the hilarity of these sites:

http://www.defendourdemocracy.ca/

Both ridiculous.
Whatever.
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:57 PM   #1235
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Hey do you know what that really says, or does it even make sense? I just did a google translate. My chinese totally sucks. i can only read 4 of those characters.
I know you tried to say "shove a stick up your grandpa and the Liberals", but you kinda messed it up with the choice of words so it added to the hilarity factor lol
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:57 PM   #1236
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Well I wish I was from Quebec if this is the way things are going play out Born and raised and living in Calgary though. Maybe I'm just not so cynical. I'm still of the belief though that this coalition won't happen because the Conservatives will cave.
They already have. They did days ago. It stopped none of the coalition talk.
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:57 PM   #1237
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Well I wish I was from Quebec if this is the way things are going play out Born and raised and living in Calgary though. Maybe I'm just not so cynical. I'm still of the belief though that this coalition won't happen because the Conservatives will cave.
Short of a blank cheque to Quebec... I'm not sure what else the CPC can do.

The Stooges have the Brass ring in reach, they aren't backing down.
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:58 PM   #1238
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I did.

But there were also oil stocks that dropped today. He listed 3 that went up.
There were oil stocks that went down too.

Suncor, Canadian Oilsands Trust and Husky.

Besides if the markets really thought the Coalition was an evil thing it would not only go down 67points. It would tank big time rather then drop .0094.
I also said "oilsands stock went down" and then brought up the argument regarding oil sands stocks and their significantly large foreign investment. People invest in companies they feel safe putting their money into. Today it wasn't simply the price of oil making oil sands stocks risky...

While we're at it; Talisman is up. We can play the up/down stock game all day long.
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:58 PM   #1239
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Oh, don't get me wrong, Option 1 is far from perfect... but Harper is behind the 8 ball. The trick is to pick someone with universal popularity, but still someone either conservative, or truly neutral. Jean must know her vicarious affiliation to the FLQ was going to hurt her.

I think its a risk worth taking. Quebec is going pretty Bloc regardless... Duceppe could teach a master class in puppeteering. The question is how betrayed Ontario and BC feel by a Leftist alliance with the Bloc. Even if they lose all 10 in Quebec (which I doubt), I could see adding 10 from Ontario, 5 from BC, 1 from AB, 1 from SK, 2 from MB, and 3 from the rest.
Yeah, there's that possibility. However, Harper's strength is generally in making bold moves that builds or consolidates his power despite pissing some people off. I'm not convinced he has the nuanced understanding of public opinion necessary to find and appoint someone of universal popularity. He'll start out with good intentions and next thing you know, Celine Dion is commuting between Vegas and Rideau Hall.
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:59 PM   #1240
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OK, fair enough...but I have a question so please learn me...

If the oil companies have bigger market caps than the banks and posted higher gains than the banks posted losses, how do the 5 banks have MORE pull on the TSX index than all of the oil companies? Again, I'm not trying to claim that the only reason the TSX is down is because of the coalition talk but IMO you'd have to be naive to think that the prospect of an unstable government does not rattle investor confidence a little, no?

For more clarificaiton... I'm not sayin the idea of a non-Conservative vs. a Conservative government hurt the TSX. I'm saying the idea of NO government STABILITY for either party can't help.

Or maybe I'm out to lunch here in which case I'll gladly admit I'm wrong...
It does not go by market cap. It is based on 300 stocks on the TSX and they have equal rating. That is why the Dow is actually pretty useless and I guess the only reason why anyone follows it is tradition. It is based on only 30 stocks.

So if a kid tomorrow, dies at Disney, drinking a coke and choking on a McDonald's freedom fry bought buy an AMEX card, the Dow would be up crapcreek. Not sure why the TSX would follow that trend.

Last edited by Bertuzzied; 12-02-2008 at 03:06 PM.
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