Coalition Deal To Topple Minority Tory Govt- [Update Parliament Prorogued until Jan]

[kevman]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

Interestingly, in the markets:
Dow UP 270 points
TSX DOWN 67 points
CDN Dollar DOWN to .7999

Can't say the coalition has no effect now.

To make it easier to visualize...

Dow +3.3%
Nasdaq +3.7%
TSX -0.9%

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by Ronald Pagan

BZZZZZ

OIL BBL DOWN 4.3%

We have a petro dollar dontcha know?

Which explains the dollar, but doesn't explain why the Dow is having a good day, and the TSX a poor one. They tend to rise and fall together.

[ikaris]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

Ok.

I know where you stand.

You trust the bloc, for the rest of us who would as soon give them a quick kick to the nuts as if they stole our extension coord, I will continue to believe they are some of the biggest liars on the face of the planet and I guarantee this coalition wont last a year. And to think that Dion and Layton would go to to bed with this disease ridden street walker of a party might be the biggest load of bs I have heard since someone said the Oilers were a good team.

I never said I trusted them, I just said that they've gotten all they need for Quebec until June 2010. What else could they want? I think they're a scab on our political system and I'm not sure why they're not arrested for sedition.

[ikaris]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

Which explains the dollar, but doesn't explain why the Dow is having a good day, and the TSX a poor one. They tend to rise and fall together.

The Dow rallied because it seems that the automakers are going to get their bailout.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/02/mark...york/index.htm

[Fozzie_DeBear]

A petition to sign if you are opposed to the coup....errr...coalition

Sign if you are interested.
http://www.gopetition.com/petitions/...nt-canada.html

(This WILL get lost in this thread...but I don't think it is new thread worthy)

[Incinerator]

Originally Posted by ikaris

First of all, they said no carbon tax. The only thing that has been suggested is that they will try to implement a North American cap and trade system. This will need American support. Frankly, if the Americans agree to a system like this, why should we oppose (I really doubt they would though anyways)?

I don't trust the Bloc either, but their commitment and word is in writing. Not much more I can say other than that. If they refuse to honor their commitment, an election will proceed.

Cap & trade = crooks-speak for carbon tax. If they really wanted American input on this, why would they not wait for Obama to release his plan before kicking and screaming about how our government has no plan? Stop kidding yourself and call a spade a spade. These are a bunch of crooks trying to steal from Canadians to prop up their own ascension into power they do not have a rightful claim to.

If you don't trust the Bloc, then why would you trust what they have written on paper? If I came to your house to rob you and handed you a piece of paper that says "Don't worry, I'm not robbing you, I'm just helping you to redistribute your wealth, so you can help the less fortunate on the other side of the country. :-)", would you just sit there and say "Ok I trust you, I won't call the cops then"??

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by ikaris

Yes except that the Bloc have committed in writing with their leader's signature to an accord that says they will support any confidence measures that are put to vote by the coalition government in June 2010. Reneging on that deal would put them in a very tight battle in Quebec against the Liberals. That is why they've only committed to 18 months to allow this coalition to govern.

Ya, exactly...so they're part of government. You do realize that's power, right?

edit: that comes across much more condescending than I intended. The point that I'm trying to get across is that the Bloc will be part of this government and will have a significant amount of power.

[Jade]

Originally Posted by ikaris

I never said I trusted them, I just said that they've gotten all they need for Quebec until June 2010. What else could they want? I think they're a scab on our political system and I'm not sure why they're not arrested for sedition.

But what have they gotten? What was it that was offered to get them onboard? We still don't know what was given in order to make them agree to this. Personally, based on history, it is my belief that whatever it is, we aren't going to like it.

[Bertuzzied]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

Interestingly, in the markets:
Dow UP 270 points
TSX DOWN 67 points
CDN Dollar DOWN to .7999

Can't say the coalition has no effect now.

Wow.that is so wrong. Maybe it's because Oil touched a 3 year low? or most probably Scotiabank reported their 4th Quarter dragging all 5 major bank's stock prices down.

The Hang Seng in Hong Kong was down over 700 points yesterday. Damn you Dion!!螺桿您翁和自由派！

Holy this thread moves faster than a Flames game thread.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by Ronald Pagan

BZZZZZ

OIL BBL DOWN 4.3%

We have a petro dollar dontcha know?

Did you check any stock quotes before posting this?

Encana, CNRL and Nexen are all up on the TSE
Exxon and Conoco are up on the NYSE
Shell, Total and Statoil are up on their respective international markets.

The drop in the TSX today was NOT a result of oil prices. Heavy oil stocks are down. Why would heavy oil stocks in Canada be down when the rest of oil stocks are up? I think investor uncertainty with a potential unstable government could have a lot to do with it, don't you?

Edit: I should add that I don't think this is the only reason the markets are down. I would however like to bring up one point. What was one of the major driving factors behind the oil sands? A stable government! If you remove "stability" from our government our oil is no more desirable than the incredibly cheap to produce oil in the middle east.

[ikaris]

Originally Posted by Jade

But what have they gotten? What was it that was offered to get them onboard? We still don't know what was given in order to make them agree to this. Personally, based on history, it is my belief that whatever it is, we aren't going to like it.

This will be the third time I've stated it in this thread. They're going to get a stimulus package which includes a bailout for auto, manufacturing, mining, and forestry. Pretty key economic things for Quebec.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by ikaris

This will be the third time I've stated it in this thread. They're going to get a stimulus package which includes a bailout for auto, manufacturing, mining, and forestry. Pretty key economic things for Quebec.

and yet you try to argue that the Bloc has no power within this coalition government, or it's policy decisions?

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Problem with option 1 is that Jean is relatively popular in Quebec, and booting her because of her separatist history would be conceding much of rural Quebec to the Bloc. And since with a new GG, the best you can hope for is a prorogue and then an election, the Conservatives are going to feel that string sooner rather than later. And even outside of Quebec, some voters may feel that Jean is being unfairly victimized, as she hasn't done anything (as far as I can recall) that suggests a Liberal/Bloc bias since being appointed.

I agree with you that Harper's resignation will only galvanize the coalition. His best chance is trying to recruit MPs from the Liberals and NDP. A prorogue will give these MPs time to go home, listen to their constituants, and read all the presumably angry mail they're getting. I think getting 10 MPs as well as formalizing the support of the independents is very possible.

Oh, don't get me wrong, Option 1 is far from perfect... but Harper is behind the 8 ball. The trick is to pick someone with universal popularity, but still someone either conservative, or truly neutral. Jean must know her vicarious affiliation to the FLQ was going to hurt her.

I think its a risk worth taking. Quebec is going pretty Bloc regardless... Duceppe could teach a master class in puppeteering. The question is how betrayed Ontario and BC feel by a Leftist alliance with the Bloc. Even if they lose all 10 in Quebec (which I doubt), I could see adding 10 from Ontario, 5 from BC, 1 from AB, 1 from SK, 2 from MB, and 3 from the rest.

[ikaris]

Originally Posted by Incinerator

Cap & trade = crooks-speak for carbon tax. If they really wanted American input on this, why would they not wait for Obama to release his plan before kicking and screaming about how our government has no plan? Stop kidding yourself and call a spade a spade. These are a bunch of crooks trying to steal from Canadians to prop up their own ascension into power they do not have a rightful claim to.

If you don't trust the Bloc, then why would you trust what they have written on paper? If I came to your house to rob you and handed you a piece of paper that says "Don't worry, I'm not robbing you, I'm just helping you to redistribute your wealth, so you can help the less fortunate on the other side of the country. :-)", would you just sit there and say "Ok I trust you, I won't call the cops then"??

They have to get American support as a cap & trade system would not work in just Canada alone. About trusting the Bloc, it's more of a political thing, if they break their deal, they face electoral challenges which I'm sure they are aware of. Remember, all politicians are self-serving, I'm just outline why supporting this coalition is self-serving for them, and to betray it would cause political damage.

You got to step back and look at it analytically versus emotionally.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by ikaris

The Dow rallied because it seems that the automakers are going to get their bailout.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/02/mark...york/index.htm

Should that not have buoyed Canadian markets too? We're pretty dependent on the Auto Sector.

As well, Bertuzzied, read Kevman's post.

[ikaris]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

and yet you try to argue that the Bloc has no power within this coalition government, or it's policy decisions?

I'm saying they already have what they want. What future decisions in the next year and half will require their input if they've already signed on their support? There's nothing more to see here. Move on.

[Bertuzzied]

Originally Posted by kevman

Did you check any stock quotes before posting this?

Encana, CNRL and Nexen are all up on the TSE
Exxon and Conoco are up on the NYSE
Shell, Total and Statoil are up on their respective international markets.

The drop in the TSX today was NOT a result of oil prices. Heavy oil stocks are down. Why would heavy oil stocks in Canada be down when the rest of oil stocks are up? I think investor uncertainty with a potential unstable government could have a lot to do with it, don't you?

It is the banks. I think it was the liberals who asked that the breakfast nook commercial be made.

TD down $1.13
BNS down $2.47
BMO down $1.52
CM down $1.02(but that is prob due to the Stittler-Iggy commercial)
RY down $1.54

[Incinerator]

Originally Posted by Bertuzzied

Damn you Dion!!螺桿您翁和自由派！

quoted for hilarity

[Flame On]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Weird. I count physical violence towards at least two sides of the political spectrum.

Also... I mentioned that I, myself, had already acquired the same "Grain of Salt" mode in the exact post you quoted.

I'm confused as to what the issue is.

I'm just saying that in this thread/board if you don't think there isn't a ton of partisan loyalty to throw around from all camps you're kind of kidding yourself. I guess you did address that of yourself though. So....issue over?

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Jade

Of course. Because the Bloc just agreed to support the liberals out of the goodness of their hearts and the love of Canada.

They had to be promised something, and it had to be something big, to agree. And if at any point the liberals try to do something they don't like, they can get it changed by threatning to topple the coalition. The only reason they aren't getting cabinet posts is because if they were officially in the coalition, the GG would be much more likely to say no.

I've said this before, but it bears repeating. The only motive that the Bloc needs to support the coalition is self-preservation. More than any other party right now, they cannot afford an election, and they cannot afford to see a Conservative majority, given the CPC has threatened. Combine that with the fact that Duceppe's support was down through most of the last election period, and that many Quebecers are questioning the relevance of voting for a party that has no actual participation in governance, and Duceppe's motives are clear: he, as much as anyone else involved, needs this coalition to work. He'll easily put his own and his party's welfare ahead of furthering any separatist agenda.

I still count him as opportunistic, and once the party coffers are filled and his support has rebounded, it won't be surprising to see him break with the coalition. But no, of course it makes much more sense that they were promised something! Something big!! Can we guess what it is? Is it a zeppelin?