40th Canadian Federal Election - Welcome to another Conservative Minority (whee!)

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Bobblehead

Yeah that David Emerson thing, crossing the floor for a cabinet post before even sitting a day in the house, what a dirty Liberal....oh, wait.

Just as stupid and unethical...but not even in the same stratosphere.

[Bobblehead]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Surely you see the difference. A fringe party that has been whining...er I guess I should say lobbying from legitimacy for years now finally gets a sniff at it - and then starts telling their supporters to cast their votes elsewhere.

To be blunt, if this shakes out as some are speculating I think May should be held responsible for crushing any momentum the Greens had on their way to becoming a legitimate entity.

I'm not saying the Emerson situation was right either - but its entirely different.

For sure

I was just pointing out that the Conservatives are as two-faced as the Liberals. They're both in the slop.

Whine'n moan about Stronach for a long time, then don't even sit in the house before doing the same darn thing. At least Stronach had the moxy to run in the next election as Liberal.

Then the "I won't tax income trusts" followed by taxing income trusts. Hey, I agree it needed to be done because of what some major corporations were planning. I don't agree with the pledge he made in the first place - a promise he either lied in making or was ignorant in making.

If you want to portray yourself as being more ethical, then you had better live up to that portrayal.

The Liberals didn't, the Conservatives aren't.

I think the CPC are a better party for governing, but I don't think they are a very good choice. For all the talk of "let them take power then try to look for changes", I don't believe that will work. There wsa already a huge outcry about Bill C-61, Prentice has already shown himself to be ignorant about the actual impact of the bill, everyday MPs were given a script on how to respond to complaints. The CPC were given a perfect chance to revise the bill. With its death at the dropping of the writ, they could easily have said, "We have heard the public and will consider these concerns", but no, instead the CPC platform has announced they will re-introduce the bill. Yeah, that is listening to the public.

I'm strongly jaded on politics, and the more I see the more jaded I become.

I'll vote (I always have), but it will feel like taking a bite of crap sandwich.

[octothorp]

Yeah, I think May has been abysmal as a leader for the Greens. And I'm not happy about how their platform has gone from being relatively fiscally conservative last time around to promising more spending per year than any of the other parties. It's too bad, I think they could have really carved out a niche for themselves as a socially liberal, fiscally conservative party and draw votes from both sides of the spectrum.

[HOZ]

Dime-a-dozen polls:
cp: Con 35% Libs 26% Ndp 18% Bloc 10% Grn 9%
cpac: Con 34% Libs 27% Ndp 21% Bloc 10% Grn 8%
Ctv/g&m: Con 33% Libs 28% NDP 18% Grn 11% Bloc 10%
Ang/Reid: Con 38% Libs 28% NDP 19% Bloc 9%, Grn 6%

[Ford Prefect]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Yeah, I think May has been abysmal as a leader for the Greens. And I'm not happy about how their platform has gone from being relatively fiscally conservative last time around to promising more spending per year than any of the other parties. It's too bad, I think they could have really carved out a niche for themselves as a socially liberal, fiscally conservative party and draw votes from both sides of the spectrum.

Yep, that pretty much sums up my feelings too. I was hoping the Greens might some day emerge as a viable opposition voice positioned somewhere to the right of the Liberals, but still left of centre. Not as an official opposition party, but as a replacement for the NDP in the power structure. But May has moved the party left of the NDP, and torpedoed their momentum and growth. It will be interesting to see if they can recover, and if so, I wonder how long it will take.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by HOZ

Dime-a-dozen polls:
cp: Con 35% Libs 26% Ndp 18% Bloc 10% Grn 9%
cpac: Con 34% Libs 27% Ndp 21% Bloc 10% Grn 8%
Ctv/g&m: Con 33% Libs 28% NDP 18% Grn 11% Bloc 10%
Ang/Reid: Con 38% Libs 28% NDP 19% Bloc 9%, Grn 6%

No real outliers there--indications are that another conservative minority government is in the offing.

My one complaint is the inclusion of the Bloc in nationwide polls. Saying they're at 9% nationally is meaningless--since outside Quebec, they are polling at 0% and inside Quebec at (presumably) closer to 40%.

I'm curious as to what the numbers would look like if you broke them down by region--Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies, Alberta and B.C. I think that would make prognostication a little easier.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

No real outliers there--indications are that another conservative minority government is in the offing.

My one complaint is the inclusion of the Bloc in nationwide polls. Saying they're at 9% nationally is meaningless--since outside Quebec, they are polling at 0% and inside Quebec at (presumably) closer to 40%.

I'm curious as to what the numbers would look like if you broke them down by region--Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies, Alberta and B.C. I think that would make prognostication a little easier.

The Simon Fraser website has an excellent breakdown of polls by regions:

http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls.html

Just click on the region at the top that you want to look into.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by octothorp

The Simon Fraser website has an excellent breakdown of polls by regions:

http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls.html

Just click on the region at the top that you want to look into.

Thanks, that helps a lot.

Looking over those, it looks like the only party to gain strength in more than one region is the NDP. Green votes will likely shift somewhat to ND and Liberals to-morrow--if they actually get 10% of the vote, I'll be pretty surprised. So accounting for vote-splitting, incumbency and so on--I foresee very little change. I think the Liberals (who are the one party to LOSE strength in more than one region) will lose some seats, with the Conservatives and NDP splitting them up depending on where they are.

The Liberals' Ontario numbers ought to be of particular concern to Dion--they got nearly 40% in 2006, but are now polling at around 33%. If there's a big shift, that's where it will be.

[Caged Great]

Honestly, I don't really see the Conservatives getting a lot out of this. Either way they'll get another minority government.

It just gives more time for the liberals and NDP to get their stuff together.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Honestly, I don't really see the Conservatives getting a lot out of this. Either way they'll get another minority government.

It just gives more time for the liberals and NDP to get their stuff together.

Yeah, I think the Liberals in particular will feel that they really dodged a bullet here in not having a good election campaign, having low leadership numbers, being down in the polls, and yet being able to keep the Conservatives to a minority, pick a new leader, regroup, and take another shot.

[metallicat]

Is Dion done as a leader when they lose again? Michael Ignatieff is still waiting in the wings, is he not?

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by oilers_fan

Is Dion done as a leader when they lose again? Michael Ignatieff is still waiting in the wings, is he not?

Yeah, although it's hard to say if he'll be able to get enough support; he seems to be a highly divisive figure. Rae, Kennedy, and Dryden will likely all put their names up if there's a leadership convention. And we were talking a few pages back about McKenna re-entering the race, who would probably unite the party and give them their best shot at winning a federal election.

[Caged Great]

I think Dion is done. He's not very effective outside (and inside) Quebec. Ignatieff should have won last time, and probably will win this time. I just hope that they get their stuff together in short order.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by fotze

I just reaized my drivers license has my old address, what else will they accept for proof of identity or address.

http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?...textonly=false

Looks like option #2 will cover you.

[Ford Prefect]

If Dion is replaced, which I think likely, one Liberal insider I know from Ontario figures Rae actually has a chance to replace him. I sure hope he doesn't have an accurate read on things ... Layton and Rae as leaders of the NDP and Liberals is not appealing.

[Hack&Lube]

Harper gambled and made a huge mistake. What was the point of his election timing? To beat the U.S. elections? Why did he move forward his own date?

He could have rode out the financial crisis and proved the government was holding steady (he couldn't have forseen it popping up in the middle of his campaign of course)...had a few more lax years of a lame Dion as the opposition leader, etc...all doing nothing but blowing more millions of dollars on an election that will result in the same minority and government structure we had in the first place. Now the cons might even lose seats and the liberals will be resurgent if Dion is ousted.

Stupid!

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

Harper gambled and made a huge mistake. What was the point of his election timing? To beat the U.S. elections? Why did he move forward his own date?

He could have rode out the financial crisis and proved the government was holding steady (he couldn't have forseen it popping up in the middle of his campaign of course)...had a few more lax years of a lame Dion as the opposition leader, etc...all doing nothing but blowing more millions of dollars on an election that will result in the same minority and government structure we had in the first place. Now the cons might even lose seats and the liberals will be resurgent if Dion is ousted.

Stupid!

Tough to say in hindsight. We'll never really know.

It's also possible that this is as good as it gets for him.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Ford Prefect

If Dion is replaced, which I think likely, one Liberal insider I know from Ontario figures Rae actually has a chance to replace him. I sure hope he doesn't have an accurate read on things ... Layton and Rae as leaders of the NDP and Liberals is not appealing.

Well he wont go away very easily....

"I will never quit, I will stay for my country," Dion vowed as he toured southern Ontario for votes

"I'm the leader and I'm working to win," he said after a rally with about 200 cheering supporters in Toronto's eastern suburb of Scarborough.
He also rejected suggestions the party might pressure him to go if it doesn't form a government.

"The pressure we have today is to elect a progressive government and to make sure that we'll not only stop Stephen Harper but we will replace him."

And this as well....though Im not sure it is pertinent with Dion.

Tom Axworthy, former principal secretary to former prime minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau and chairman of the Centre for the Study of Democracy at Queen's University, said even if Dion doesn't win, he'll likely get a second chance from the Liberals.

"There's a tradition in the Liberal party of a least giving a leader a couple of shots at it," Axworthy said.

Also a direct reference to May going with Dion as a possibility/strategy.

Dion's repeated pleas for strategic voting so as not to split "progressive" support have been awkward for Green Party Leader Elizabeth May.

She told CTV she wasn't endorsing strategic voting for the Liberals.

But she also told The Canadian Press there are "maybe 20%" of the 308 ridings in the country where Green voters might vote strategically -- or about 60 seats.

Appearing on CTV's Question Period, Dion said, "I want her in the House of Commons," but added "I will not choose my cabinet before I've even seen my caucus."

Ugh.

http://calsun.canoe.ca/canadavotes/n...66666-sun.html

[Devils'Advocate]

Justin Trudeau is pushing 40 now even though he looks like a little pup. I think it's about time he threw his hat in the ring. He doesn't have a lot of experience, but like a certain guy south of the border, he is charismatic and is an inspirational speaker. I know in the last convention, he supported Kennedy, but it will soon be Justin's time. The Liberals haven't had a leader able to capture the hearts and minds of MOST OF THE NATION since his father.

As for Dion saying that he will stay on... bah, I don't think the party will give him the choice.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

Justin Trudeau is pushing 40 now even though he looks like a little pup. I think it's about time he threw his hat in the ring. He doesn't have a lot of experience, but like a certain guy south of the border, he is charismatic and is an inspirational speaker. I know in the last convention, he supported Kennedy, but it will soon be Justin's time. The Liberals haven't had a leader able to capture the hearts and minds of MOST OF THE NATION since his father.

As for Dion saying that he will stay on... bah, I don't think the party will give him the choice.

Pierre Trudeau is one of the more hated politicians in Quebec, if they put junior in to a leadership they're going to plant Liberal hopes in Quebec, but also in all of Western Canada.

He'd be a brutal choice.