Will Gaudreau win the Calder?

[getbak]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Trouble is that Forsberg plays in the eastern time zone. Johnny plays out here.

As we all know the east doesn't like to stay up late to watch hockey. I suspect he is on the ballot. If all things stay the same Forsberg wins.

Nashville is in the Central Time Zone, and they still play in the Western Conference, so a good number of their games are also in the Mountain and Pacific time zones...not as many as the Flames, but more than the Eastern teams.

If Forsberg were playing on a higher-profile Eastern team, the eastern bias would be a concern, but as it stands, Nashville is a small-market team that gets as little general coverage as the Flames do. If anything, I'd bet the eastern bias will work in Johnny's favour.

He's a known commodity in the Philadelphia and Boston areas, plus anywhere the NCAA has a strong following (Michigan, Minnesota, Massachusetts), so the writers in those locations are likely to have Johnny on their radar more than Forsberg. Canadian writers will also pay more attention to the Flames than the Preds.

The writers who aren't watching Flames games also aren't watching Predators games, so most of the voting is influenced by looking at the stat lines and remembering the highlight-reel plays anyway.

The last NCAA player to win the Calder was Dany Heatley, and the last American was Patrick Kane, so that also might influence some of the votes in the States, if writers want to see one of their own players win it.


If it's a close vote, I'd bet that most of the biases will work in Johnny's favour, not against him.

[GioforPM]

Forsberg is the main competition. I agree that Johnny actually has better recognition potential in the Eastern US. Born there, played there, WJC for the US. Americans are impressed by Hobey Baker awards (even though they dont' translate to NHL success that often). Canadian writers follow the Flames.

Some idiot writers might give Forsberg some name recognition because they think he's related to Peter.

[saillias]

Has he even been told to get a place to stay yet? Last I heard, about a week ago, he was still sitting in a hotel

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

I haven't watched Forsberg -- how many of his points have been "highlight reel" worthy? I think that'll be the difference between JH and anyone else -- it's one thing to score points but it's another to pull off the kind of plays Johnny has already done thus far...

FWIW - Both Forsberg and Gaudreau have 6 primary assists and 3 second assists.

They both have very high PDOs. Forsberg is the highest in the league, Gaudreau is 8th.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by saillias

Has he even been told to get a place to stay yet? Last I heard, about a week ago, he was still sitting in a hotel

They have 56 days from the start of the season before they need to tell him to find a place. Until then, they have to provide him a place to live in Calgary. As a 21 year-old single guy making almost a million dollars a year, living in a hotel is probably decent. It's not like he's living in some $50 a night motel room.

He'll likely be given to go-ahead to get a place this week once they're back in Calgary.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by getbak

Nashville is in the Central Time Zone, and they still play in the Western Conference, so a good number of their games are also in the Mountain and Pacific time zones...not as many as the Flames, but more than the Eastern teams.

If Forsberg were playing on a higher-profile Eastern team, the eastern bias would be a concern, but as it stands, Nashville is a small-market team that gets as little general coverage as the Flames do. If anything, I'd bet the eastern bias will work in Johnny's favour.

He's a known commodity in the Philadelphia and Boston areas, plus anywhere the NCAA has a strong following (Michigan, Minnesota, Massachusetts), so the writers in those locations are likely to have Johnny on their radar more than Forsberg. Canadian writers will also pay more attention to the Flames than the Preds.

The writers who aren't watching Flames games also aren't watching Predators games, so most of the voting is influenced by looking at the stat lines and remembering the highlight-reel plays anyway.

The last NCAA player to win the Calder was Dany Heatley, and the last American was Patrick Kane, so that also might influence some of the votes in the States, if writers want to see one of their own players win it.


If it's a close vote, I'd bet that most of the biases will work in Johnny's favour, not against him.

I hope you are right and I am wrong.