American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Coach]

Kind of a weird sentiment. If you believe in something you should put money on it? Why? Just because you can?

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz

If you look at early voting stats for those states it doesn't look so dire:
The % of early voters by party registration looks pretty good for Harris:

Michigan:
D: 48%
R: 41%
Other: 11%

Pen:
D: 59%
R: 31%
Other: 10%

Wis:
D: 36%
R: 23%
Other: 41%

If she Needs to win those 3 they look pretty good so far (I'll take voting info over betting odds).

NC is pretty even, and the others look good for republicans, but I'd say if those 3 are the most important, then the real data is looking okay for Harris.

It still blows my mind that people register their party affiliation.

When these early numbers are reported, are they based on exit polls, or are these official numbers of registered voters that have voted? If the latter, again...WTF? Can't stop private exit polling but official election process should be 100% tight-lipped about everything, besides perhaps overall quantity of early voting.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I mean, I get people bringing up the betting sites all the time is annoying so I apologize in advance.

But if you're pretty sure Harris is going to win you should totally sign up and take some of the money people are betting on Trump. It would be like a double win - you'd more than double your money plus be happy in the knowledge the money you won came from a MAGA type (or possibly some shady Russians trying to influence the vote).

I think the hilarious thing about Polymarket is that if you already have money in crypto, there are way better ways to get bigger gains than locking in cash on presidential bets.

That said, the real money is in betting on a Kamala popular vote win, that's basically getting a dollar for 57 cents.

[burn_this_city]

I've thought pretty hard about it, but a big part of me knows I won't stop betting on stuff and any deposit would eventually be frittered away even if I won the election bets. How many bettors actually withdraw their winnings? Genuinely dislike how much betting has permeated every aspect of sports now.

[Coach]

For me it's just not worth the inconvenience vs payout trade off. I don't want to bet more than $100 on something regardless of my confidence, so is walking away with a couple hundred dollars worth dealing with funding a wallet for Polymarket? No, it's not. Do I want to put more than $1K on a bet? Not at all.

[PsYcNeT]

There is 100% a type of guy that will put money on a presidential election on a crypto betting site, and the chances of that guy being a Trump supporter and/or libertarian are astronomically high based on my time spent at various crypto conferences.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by GGG

Can you show us pinnacle lines to back up your statement that the accurately predicted 2022?

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

No, I can't, as the odds aren't publicly available after the line closes.

So why did you tell other people to go back and look at the odds that apparently don't exist any more?

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Go back and find the Pinnacle odds on the mid-terms.

So I don't know about Pinnacle specifically, but the general betting odds for 2022 underestimated Democratic support. Most had the Republicans at a 70-75% chance to take the Senate whereas polling aggregates had it as a tossup. The polls were right and the betting markets were wrong in that instance.

[CroFlames]

One of the safest bets right now with any sort of payout is Dems to win popular vote. I put a few bucks on that.

I still placed a bet on Kamala to win because without her, Ukraine will fall into Russian hands and American democracy ends. So I have to believe America will do the right thing.

"Christians, get out and vote, just this time. "You won't have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what, it will be fixed, it will be fine, you won't have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians."

Trump, July 26 2024

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

So I have to believe America will do the right thing.

Oh, my sweet summer child...

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1851095314536550484

[ResAlien]

Gambling odds and football players. And here I thought the politics thread couldn’t get any dumber

[Senator Clay Davis]

Where can I get my Trump win + Bosa doing a cross burning celebration parlay?

[EldrickOnIce]

Is it the 5th yet?

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Gambling odds and football players. And here I thought the politics thread couldn’t get any dumber

Well, a known racist is spreading a message of hate on a national broadcast, and nothing is being said.

I wonder if an NBA player did this what the outrage would be? Hannity? They told LeBron to shut up and dribble. Bosa should be told to shut up and get blocked.

[Muta]

If Trump wins, can we just merge California/Oregon/Washington/Colorado/New York/Massachusetts/Connecticut with Canada? Win-win - we get the best of the US, and the deplorables in those red states can have their own country to self-destroy and smell their farts in.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Muta

If Trump wins, can we just merge California/Oregon/Washington/Colorado/New York/Massachusetts/Connecticut with Canada? Win-win - we get the best of the US, and the deplorables in those red states can have their own country to self-destroy and smell their farts in.

You are giving Marliana? the green light to send Alberta to the US.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

You are giving Marliana? the green light to send Alberta to the US.

Nah, they merge with Canada first. Marlaina becomes so outnumbered in her political positions that she flees Alberta / Canada and joins her MAGA peeps in Florida, never to be seen again. Win-win.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Well, a known racist is spreading a message of hate on a national broadcast, and nothing is being said.

I wonder if an NBA player did this what the outrage would be? Hannity? They told LeBron to shut up and dribble. Bosa should be told to shut up and get blocked.

Never mind that, look how Kaepernick was treated for making a political statement.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

You are giving Marliana? the green light to send Alberta to the US.

I think the Wexiters would see a Trump presidency as their best chance for joining the US. Would not be surprised to hear more noise about that, with tacit otherwise encouragement from down south.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Ped

Never mind that, look how Kaepernick was treated for making a political statement.

Yeah and to my knowledge Kaepernick was not going out of his way to spread his message. He took a knee and eventually people inquired and it grew from that. Bossa is crashing interviews he's not invited to and looking for attention. But he's still a useful pass rusher and he's the right color. So no repercussions for him.