American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[GGG]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Man, I really really hope you are right. I've been following the prediction markets since the 2002 mid-terms and 2016 aside, they are extremely accurate, much more so than the polls the media seem to run with every time.

In 2020 the prediction markets heavily favoured Trump relative to any polling or fundamentals based models. The models like Silver’s had Trump at 10% whereas the prediction markets gave Trump a 33% chance.

This year the gap between the prediction market and polling models is much smaller. I think part of that is people really struggle with likelihoods as things get smaller.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Again, I haven't mentioned polymarket once. Go back and find the Pinnacle odds on the mid-terms.

"In the 2022 midterm elections, all the prediction markets failed spectacularly. Right up to the night of the election, they projected outcomes for key races that turned out to be completely wrong."

Who said polymarket?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Again, I haven't mentioned polymarket once. Go back and find the Pinnacle odds on the mid-terms.

Here you go

https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgec...midterm-exams/

My recollection is there was no meaningful difference between prediction markets and the implied oversees betting odds. They track eachother as betting lines usually do.

Found some odds from bet fair and mgm bet around Pennsylvania. In general they had the odds flipped relative to the modeling sites

https://www.oddstrader.com/betting/a...election-odds/

https://oddsjam.com/politics/2022-pe...g-fetterman-oz

This year the margins are far tighter though demonstrating smart money coming in or perhaps that dumb money comes in late.

[dino7c]

exactly they had the Penn race 60-40 for the republican a week out...he lost big time

yeah the odds changed in the end when results started pouring in lol

[MegaErtz]

The link you posted doesn't mention anything about Pinnacle. I recommend doing some research on what Pinnacle is.

[ResAlien]

Nah that’s alright. Good news is we’re all going to know pretty soon one way or the other

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

The link you posted doesn't mention anything about Pinnacle. I recommend doing some research on what Pinnacle is.

Well you are wrong though...they were off on a bunch of the senate races. Like the Penn Senate race...

[MegaErtz]

Pinnacle didn't hang a line on any of the Senate races in 2020 or 2022.

[KelVarnsen]

Do we need a 2024 Degenerate election thread?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Pinnacle didn't hang a line on any of the Senate races in 2020 or 2022.

Other very similar sports books did.

Can you show us pinnacle lines to back up your statement that the accurately predicted 2022?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Pinnacle didn't hang a line on any of the Senate races in 2020 or 2022.

you are the one who said you followed them in "every election" since the mid terms in 2002
fact remains the polls and prediction markets where WAAAAY off in the most recent election and over valued the Trumper support. Nearly everyone he endorsed in close races lost.
You were literally using the words "prediction markets"

Your posts really sound like when posters come here and say "I hate to say it but the Oilers are looking really good"

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

you are the one who said you followed them in "every election" since the mid terms in 2002

fact remains the polls and prediction markets where WAAAAY off in the most recent election and over valued the right.

Your posts really sound like when posters come here and say "I hate to say it but the Oilers are looking really good"

The polls in 2022 were the most accurate in recent history

Here is the link again if you didn’t read it last time.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ling-accuracy/

[MegaErtz]

Originally Posted by GGG

Other very similar sports books did.

Can you show us pinnacle lines to back up your statement that the accurately predicted 2022?

No, I can't, as the odds aren't publicly available after the line closes.

I'm not a Trumper at all, and am ashamed as an American that this guy is anywhere close to winning. However, based on the current state of play, there's only one path to victory for Harris - winning all three of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Right now Michigan is the only state she is favored to win. It is very tough to envision her coming back from this far down with only six days to go.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

No, I can't, as the odds aren't publicly available after the line closes.

I'm not a Trumper at all, and am ashamed as an American that this guy is anywhere close to winning. However, based on the current state of play, there's only one path to victory for Harris - winning all three of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Right now Michigan is the only state she is favored to win. It is very tough to envision her coming back from this far down with only six days to go.

I mean you are the one who said "prediction markets" are more accurate than polls...they were not in 2022. In fact they were ridiculously bad in swing states we are talking about.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GGG

The polls in 2022 were the most accurate in recent history

Here is the link again if you didn’t read it last time.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ling-accuracy/

Fair enough...the general consensus was that a "Red Wave" was incoming though. As I've said before my main issue with polling in general is they give themselves such a margin of error its almost irrelevant. I mean I have a passing interest in US politics and I have been wrong about one presidential election in my entire life.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Nah that’s alright. Good news is we’re all going to know pretty soon one way or the other

Hopefully...GOP is blocking counting early votes early (hmm wonder why) so we will likely see a strong start from the GOP, Trump declaring the win by 6pm, tons of dem votes coming in later, and then Trump trying to stop the steal.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

No, I can't, as the odds aren't publicly available after the line closes.

I'm not a Trumper at all, and am ashamed as an American that this guy is anywhere close to winning. However, based on the current state of play, there's only one path to victory for Harris - winning all three of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Right now Michigan is the only state she is favored to win. It is very tough to envision her coming back from this far down with only six days to go.

I thought you added nicely to the discussion.

I've been watching a few of the odds outside the headline figures, such as the odds of a blow out, and the state races. It looks like its within the error bars.

My friend is from Pennsylvania and reasonably political. I asked him the other day if he put in his overseas ballot. He laughed and said he wasn't voting. That made me laugh. A lot of folks likely just want it over with.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

Do we need a 2024 Degenerate election thread?

I feel like the 1-800-GAMBLER hotline isn't enough, we need a special hotline for people who have such a hardcore gambling addiction that they are betting on elections. Although it's gonna be something when these sites really take off and you can get down on school board trustee elections.

[Bonded]

I am preparing myself for the Trump win though. The fact that is a coin flip in general is concerning and I don’t think Harris will get the blue wave out. She was a weaker candidate to begin with as well. Hopefully I am wrong

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

The link you posted doesn't mention anything about Pinnacle. I recommend doing some research on what Pinnacle is.

Sigh. OK.

How does Pinnacle make money?
In simple terms, bookmakers make a profit by accepting bets on a given market, and adjusting odds to attract bets in the right proportion to secure a profit regardless of the outcome. This is achieved by offering odds that do not fairly represent the actual statistical probability of the event concerned – true odds.

https://www.pinnacle.com/betting-res...h22jal3xrpkq42

Plz stop.