Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
Well that wasn't me and you are explaining the old Nate...he is heavily invested in Trump being perceived as the "favourite" The guy stands to gain MILLIONS of dollars from Trump being the betting favourite and losing. I would not be looking to him and his method right now.
We can see how it plays out but I think his numbers are inaccurate
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I've listened to Nate and read his books and blog posts for 10+ years, he seems the same as ever.
He has also clearly described how his model is the one from 538 and why there has been a widening difference in predictions.
Nates model is largely polls based.
538 has a new model that they created, and it assigns a large weighting to fundamentals. This means it's discounting actual polls to favour of things that are more opinions.
Personally, i don't think fundamentals are going to play as big of a factor this year due to the rhetoric and misinformation campaigns, so I would favour the polls based approach that Nate is following.
Finally, Nate just said on the Rest is POlitics podcast that he wouldn't be on a 50:50 race as it's a coin flip. 50:50 is what his model says the race is now, as well as betting sites like polymarket are saying.
Where he said it makes sense to bet is where the markets are quite different from his model (for example 2016, when convention had Clinton at 95%+, and Nate had her around 70%).
In addition he said he could bet based on early results, as his model will identify trends that will not be apparent.
Anyways, maybe I'm wrong and this is all a very elaborate con game that will cost Nate his future as a political pundit. If this is a con game, then the worst case is that more people get out to vote for Harris.