[saXon]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

We're really starting to converge on either
a) Picking 5th, 6th or 7th (61% chance). This is driven by a 68% chance that we finish 5th or 6th last combined with the decent chance of being bumped a spot in the lottery from there.
b) Picking top 3. The chance of this happening is going to stay pretty constant in that 30% range (~9-10% per pick).

Notable change over the weekend is that we are now officially eliminated from finishing 30th.

(Draft pick odds using Enoch Root's standings-pick percentages combined with sportsclubstats.com's final standings probabilities for each potential Flames remaining record as of today)

Maybe I'm wrong here, but each pick being 9-10% chance doesn't add up to 30% picking top 3 does it? Isn't it still a 9-10% chance with the combination of the 3 chances? As far as I can remember back in math/stats class, chances aren't added to each other for a grand total percentage-wise.