The Penalty Kill Will Get Better

[GranteedEV]

Not gonna say our 5-on-5 play or power play deserve to improve, because there are issues there that need to be fixed.

The penalty kill however, has been a lot better than the results imply, and the issue has simply been a lack of big plays by individuals(Goalies, D, F).

With a 15 game sample size, we probably have enough to look at some shot attempt stats and compare them to the past, as while big plays are important, on a whole volume events are more predictive. To compare, we're going to look at the following stats from corsica.hockey:

Fenwick Against Per 60 (FA60). This refers to unblocked shot attempts directed at the goalie. Blocked shots are nice, but every shot attempt you don't clear can end up on the wrong person's stick and in the back of the net. You do not want a high FA60 no matter how good your goalie is, because tired skaters, and deflected point shots, are something shot blocking does nothing about. This was why Hartley, for all the good he did offensively, had to go.

Scoring Chances Against Per 60 (SCA60) This refers specificially to chances in the "box" in front of the blue paint. War-on-Ice used to call them High-Danger Scoring Chances. This is where most power play goals are scored, and while it doesn't account for the impact of cross-crease passes, those are things that tend to even out over larger sample sizes. Teams that give up these kind of scoring chances in front of the net, are bound to be scored on unless they have an absolutely elite goalie (Carey Price or Henrik Lundqvist).

Adjusted Save Percentage (Adj.FSV%). This refers to the type of unblocked shot attempt a goalie is facing. A goalie with a low expected save percentage, but a high save percentage, will have a positive adjusted save percentage, and a goalie with a high expected save percentage, and a low save percentage, will have a negative adjusted save percentage. As mentioned above, it doesn't account for cross-ice passes, but those are something you can reasonably expect to even out over a large sample size. The volume of quality shots should win out as players - goalies, defensemen, forwards - start playing. Over the last nine (minus 2013) seasons, the ten worst 4 VS 5 Adj.SV%s over an 82 game season belong to:

2012 Blue Jackets at -4.20%
2009 Thrashers at -2.48%
2011 Maple Leafs at -2.46%
2008 Thrashers at -2.37%
2011 Blue Jackets at -2.36%
2016 Coyotes at -2.30%
2009 Red Wings at -2.26% (!!! Lidstrom, Kronwall, Rafalski in their prime and Babcock at Coach)
2016 Senators at -2.21%
2010 Predators at -2.09% (!!! Weber, Suter, Hamhuis, Rinne in their prime and Trotz at Coach)
2009 Stars at -2.01%

What does Adj.FSV% tell us about a PK? Well it tells us that penalty killing is so dependant on bounces, on timely saves, on who you're facing on your good nights and who you're facing on your off-nights, that it's not a good predictor of whether a team is killing penalties well (including the goaltenders). The best you can do is control shots against and scoring chances as a team and tighten up details as you go along. Last year, the Flames did not to do very well:

2015-16 Flames
FA60 - 68.37 (23rd)
SCA60 - 27.98 (30th)
Adj.FSV% -1.18% (25th)

This was a tri-fecta of penalty killing issues. Hiller in particular killed our SV%, we bled scoring chances, and we bled unblocked shot attempts too. Last year we had the 30th ranked penalty kill, and deservedly so. Gulutzan came in promising improved penalty killing. He can't control Adj.FSV%, just like Babcock and Trotz could not in the past, even with such elite defensemen. He can control shot attempts and scoring chances though. So far we are:

FA60 - 69.23 (19th)
SCA60 - 18.12 (6th)
Adj.FSV% -6.07% (30th)

This year we have the 29th ranked penalty kill, but it is unsustainably so. While the absolute value of our FA60 is slightly up, it is down relative to the league. The scoring chances against however, are more than down. They have improved from the worst team in the league at keeping opponents out of the crease, to one of the absolute best. I would argue this is because we are no longer fronting pucks, and instead focusing on boxing out. But what really stands out?

That Adj.FSV% is on pace to not only be the worst over a 9 year span, but by double what nine of the ten worst teams had to deal with. It is on pace to be almost six times worse than the Jonas Hiller show. Bounces, saves, and desperate timely individual plays are missing on the penalty kill.

But I don't believe it is sustainable.

So what about Adj.FSV% on an individual basis? 4 vs 5,

Brodie has an on-ice Adj.FSV% of -11.36%
Giordano has an on-ice Adj.FSV% of -4.96%
Engelland has an on-ice Adj.FSV% of -4.79%
Dougie has an on-ice Adj.FSV% of -0.35%
Elliott has an adj.FSV% of -4.91% (62.14 minutes)
Johnson has an adj.FSV% of -8.26% (30.60 minutes)

Now compared to last year (2015-16) with Jonas Hiller on our PK:

Brodie had an on-ice Adj.FSV% of -1.66%
Giordano had an on-ice Adj.FSV% of +0.39%
Engelland had an on-ice Adj.FSV% of -3.62%
Dougie had an on-ice Adj.FSV% of -3.64%
Russell had an on-ice Adj.FSV% of +1.06%
Elliott had an adj.FSV% of +3.02% (240.33 minutes)
Johnson had an adj.FSV% of +1.54% (214.57 minutes)

And the year before (2014-15):

Brodie had an on-ice Adj.FSV% of +1.36%
Giordano had an on-ice Adj.FSV% of +2.70%
Engelland had an on-ice Adj.FSV% of -4.17%
Wideman had an on-ice Adj.FSV% of +1.74%
Russell has an on-ice Adj.FSV% of +0.40%
Elliott had an adj.FSV% of +0.12% (227.89 minutes)
Johnson had an adj.FSV% of -6.78% (only 83.67 minutes)

And the year before (2013-14)
Elliott had an adj.FSV% of +3.65% (143.95 minutes)
Johnson had an adj.FSV% of +1.61% (154.78 minutes)

They maybe do need to make some adjustments to certain details, but this isn't a case of what it was last year (our goaltenders getting shelled with chances in the slot). Let me reiterate: Last year's team was deservingly 30th in PK%. This year's team is better at Penalty Killing.

Now, are they maximizing their personnel? IMO no, I am not a fan of Engelland on the first penalty kill pair. But they've also been a victim of bad whatever-you-want-to-call-it (Sharpness, Mojo, Luck, Goaltending?). Their expected goals against on the PK is 7th best in the league, right there with St. Louis.

[devo22]

[Jason14h]

While I appreciate the Math, and massive post , we have given up the most PP goals in the league.

So I agree , I like your prediction that we get better since we can't really get worst ! 29th here we come

[Gaskal]

[calgaryblood]

Weren't we 30th place last season on the PK? Don't see it getting better with pretty much the same group killing penalties.

You can crunch all the advanced math you want but it's no coincidence or "luck" that we suck again on the PK.

[Classic_Sniper]

I'm actually very much pessimistic about the PK right now. It looks like a disaster when the opposition is able to set up. I don't know how many more times I can watch the opposition score en easy tap in, in front of the net because the team isn't collapsing quick enough down low. Teams are scoring easy goals because of the structure.

Statistically, the team is performing worse than last year and we don't even have Jonas Hiller in net to blame anymore. I don't even know how this can be possible with the improved goaltending. The PK just looks incredibly amateurish to me right now and it's costing us points in the standings.

[GranteedEV]

Been a month since I posted this. The PK has gotten better. We've posted the 6th-best PK since then.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Been a month since I posted this. The PK has gotten better.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Been a month since I posted this. The PK has gotten better. We've posted the 6th-best PK since then.

Well... since you opened yourself up to this, you also said this 3 weeks ago (10 days after you made this thread) in regards to our special teams:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...22&postcount=6

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Ask yourself:

WWGND?

What Would Gulutzan Never Do?

Do that.

Looks like you had the back-pat bases covered, whether the special teams improved or continued to stall.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Is Bennett still a 3rd line winger? For every prediction you've gotten right there are 10 statements that look equally silly. And its not like our Pk could get any worse.

[FlamesFan68]

PP and PK needed to get better, or it would be a long season. There is little or no reason why we shouldn't have one of the league's better PPs.