Value of Draft Picks

[Incogneto]

I found this on another forum, and thought I should share it with this board. It goes to show how valuable a 1st round pick really is:

Late last month, Jason Gregor looked back at the NHL draft from 1996 to 2005, in an attempt to put a value on NHL draft picks. Gregor’s far from the first to do so; after the jump I’ll look at his work and that of others to see what we can say about the NHL Draft.

Summary:
- A first round selection is far more valuable than any other selection – a player taken in that range has a slightly better than 60% chance of turning out to be a “decent” or better player; nearly three times the rate of the second round.
- Second and third round picks are a cut above the rest of the draft, although the chances of landing a “decent” or better player are quite low: a little better than 1 in 5 for the second round, and slightly better than 1 in 7 for the third round.
- There’s little difference between picks made from the fourth to ninth rounds of the draft; over those rounds players are roughly half as likely to develop into a “decent” or better player as a third round pick.

Full article:
http://canucksarmy.com/2011/3/10/the...nhl-draft-pick

[Incogneto]

I also want to add something that I wrote last night in the JayBo trade thread:

I am a big football fan, and in football, they have what they call a 'Draft Value Chart'. Basically when teams are trading picks, they can assign a value to each pick to make sure its a fair deal.

I understand that it does not totally apply to the NHL, but use it as a little bit of a measuring tape:
http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

For instance, Regher being traded for 2x2nds, both LA picks I believe. those would be about 20th in the round, therefore those picks are worth about 750 pts combined.
Douglas Murray was 2x 2nd rounders, Pits picks, therefore about 600 pts.
In comparison, the pick from the Pens was last 3 picks...lets say 650 pts.
Bouwmeester was a mid-round 1st, worth 1050. HUGE!!!

Keep in mind that those two picks together are worth about as much as the 5th overall pick, if we do decide to trade up.

[Rhettzky]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

I also want to add something that I wrote last night in the JayBo trade thread:

This chart is actually pretty neat.

In 2012 we traded the 14th overall pick for the 21st and the 42nd. The 14th on that chart has a value of 1,100 and a 21st has 800 and the 42nd has 480 (1,100 to 1,280).

In 2009 we traded the 20th overall pick for the 23rd and the 84th. The 20th on that chart has a value of 850, and the 23rd has 760 and the 84th has 137 (850 to 897).

So let's say we have the 30th from pittsburgh (620), the 15th from St. Louis(1,050). That would represent 1,670 in value or the equivalent of a 6th or 7th pick overall.

Fun to play with the possibilities.

[Incogneto]

Yeah. It's generally used for Football, but it holds merit in this sport too.

[Ring of Fire]

" A first round selection is far more valuable than any other selection – a player taken in that range has a slightly better than 60% chance of turning out to be a “decent” or better player; nearly three times the rate of the second round."

With three picks in the first round, with average drafting we can likely bank on 2 out of 3 picks being a "decent" or better player. I wonder what the percentages are for top 10, Top 5, Or top 3 picks. I imagine the percentage is either higher or the percentage is the same with a higher benchmark than "decent".

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

Yeah. It's generally used for Football, but it holds merit in this sport too.

It's interesting but needs some major tweaks.

In the NFL, 4th, 5th, 6th round picks more than usually make the team after they are drafted. On some teams with good scouting (Seahawks baby!!!!) they become instant starters.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

I found this on another forum, and thought I should share it with this board. It goes to show how valuable a 1st round pick really is:



Summary:
- A first round selection is far more valuable than any other selection – a player taken in that range has a slightly better than 60% chance of turning out to be a “decent” or better player; nearly three times the rate of the second round.
- Second and third round picks are a cut above the rest of the draft, although the chances of landing a “decent” or better player are quite low: a little better than 1 in 5 for the second round, and slightly better than 1 in 7 for the third round.
- There’s little difference between picks made from the fourth to ninth rounds of the draft; over those rounds players are roughly half as likely to develop into a “decent” or better player as a third round pick.

Full article:
http://canucksarmy.com/2011/3/10/the...nhl-draft-pick

An interesting article. I perfer Cullens take further down where he divides up the first round into the top 3, 4-6 and then the rest of the first round. As saying 60% of 1st rounders turn into decent players is a little misleading when 80% of the top 5 turn into decent players and less of the the rest of the round.

The interesting opinion in the article was the idea that trading down in the first round outside of the top 10 picks is a good idea because at that point there is a marginal difference between the quality of players so an extra pick is worth is worth more than the marginal difference between a 16 and a 20th pick.

Also interesting that seconds and thirds share similar value.

[GirlySports]

1st round picks are huge now, especially 1st overall picks.

Not like in 1971.

Canadiens Traded Ernie Hicke, 1970 first round pick (#10-Chris Oddleifson) to Golden Seals for Francois Lacombe, 1971 first round pick (#1-Guy Lafleur), cash on 1970-05-22

The Habs even got cash!
Can you imagine if the Flames has the first overall pick in 2013 and made a trade like that!? CP would explode.

In fact in 1971, out of the 14 first round picks, 6 of them were traded away.

[jaydaybay]

Originally Posted by fotze

There is also probably is a premium to this years draft being so good. Looking at 2003, we could end up with Eric Staal, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2003e.html

You can see the teams who loaded up on picks that year and what they got.

Anaheim - 19 - Ryan Getzlaf
Anaheim - 28 - Corey Perry
Florida - 3 - Nathan Horton
Florida - 25 - Anthony Stewart
Los Angeles - 13 - Dustin Brown
Los Angeles - 26 - Brian Boyle
Los Angeles - 27 - Jeff Tambellini
Philadelphia - 11 - Jeff Carter
Philadelphia - 24 - Mike Richards
San Jose - 6 - Milan Michalek
San Jose - 16 - Steve Bernier

Frick can u imagine? If the hype around this draft is accurate and our scouting doesnt tank hard we could almost accomplish in one summer what the oilers did in 3 years while inloading the bigger contracts at the same time.

Its that or young guns part deux.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

I also want to add something that I wrote last night in the JayBo trade thread:

The problem with the NFL chart is that there's no actual statistical backing behind it. Jimmy Johnson just came up with it in the early 90s basically out of thin air. No one broke down previous drafts to see when and where good players are drafted.

The numbers are certainly logical, but without some data behind the reasoning for each value I don't see the chart as being too useful. I wouldn't be surprised if some more progressive individual teams (in any sport) had their own draft pick value chart created in house though.

[You Need a Thneed]

Increasingly, it seems like top players in their prime very rarely come available by any means, trade, UFA, whatever.

Also, players with potential to become a top player are very rarely available. No team wants to trade their recent first round picks.

All of the players/prospects available for trade or signing have some kind of "flaw" - undersized, behind on talent, etc.

The only way you can acquire those types of players is through the draft, and the only place you are likely to draft such a player is in the first round.

[gargamel]

That chart is really interesting. There's about a 140 point difference between the 21st pick in the draft and the 28th pick, which is roughly where I'd expect the Leafs and Pens picks to end up. A late third rounder is worth 140 points as well, so Kipper for their third or Kipper and the Pens first for the Leafs' first would be equivalent deals if the NFL numbers could convert to the NHL. That seems fairly accurate.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Increasingly, it seems like top players in their prime very rarely come available by any means, trade, UFA, whatever.

Also, players with potential to become a top player are very rarely available. No team wants to trade their recent first round picks.

All of the players/prospects available for trade or signing have some kind of "flaw" - undersized, behind on talent, etc.

The only way you can acquire those types of players is through the draft, and the only place you are likely to draft such a player is in the first round.

I am not so sure. Unless you are talking about a very very small list of players.

Off the top of my head - Chara, Parise, Suter, Spezza, Nash, Hossa, Neal, Thornton, Kessel, Richards, Carter, Staal ... there are probably some more.

I would wager there are close to as many top players traded or signed each year as drafted.

[SportsJunky]

Originally Posted by jaydaybay

Its that or young guns part deux.

Young Guns Pt II:Electric Boogaloo

I don't want to see that movie.

[Finner]

Hi guys,

I was curious if anyone had done a statistical analysis on NHL draft pick values and I found one that was part of this paper found here:

http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports..._NHL_Draft.pdf



Especially in a deep draft like this you can probably add value to almost all the picks in the 1st round. It also shows why a team like the Blues would want the conditional 1st for if they miss the playoffs.

[Rapidfire999]

I swear someone posted something very similar to this a couple hours ago

[topfiverecords]

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=126495

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Threads merged.

[Rapidfire999]

Originally Posted by fotze

There is also probably is a premium to this years draft being so good. Looking at 2003, we could end up with Eric Staal, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2003e.html

You can see the teams who loaded up on picks that year and what they got.

Anaheim - 19 - Ryan Getzlaf
Anaheim - 28 - Corey Perry
Florida - 3 - Nathan Horton
Florida - 25 - Anthony Stewart
Los Angeles - 13 - Dustin Brown
Los Angeles - 26 - Brian Boyle
Los Angeles - 27 - Jeff Tambellini
Philadelphia - 11 - Jeff Carter
Philadelphia - 24 - Mike Richards
San Jose - 6 - Milan Michalek
San Jose - 16 - Steve Bernier

Staal, Getzlaf, and Perry; What a dream

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

- A first round selection is far more valuable than any other selection – a player taken in that range has a slightly better than 60% chance of turning out to be a “decent” or better player; nearly three times the rate of the second round.

Good post. That's the way I view it as well. The graph plotting chances of NHL Player versus Draft Position should look like a very steep ski jumping slope.

This is partly why I noted in the JBo thread that I'd be ok moving the late first round pick from the Pens. Draft top 10-15ish, or do your best to defer to another point when you can.