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Old 11-23-2010, 03:17 PM   #1
alltherage
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This kind of stems from the N. Korea crisis today. I'm no political guru... by any means, but I was having a conversation with some people around the office about this.

With the US being tied up in Iraq, and the economy sputtering, it seems entirely possible that China is the next big power. In fact, lets be honest... they are already a massive, massive force.

How long until the US just doesnt have the power to be the "World Police", and another country, starved for resources, comes knocking on Canada's door?

InB4 "I for one welcome our Chinese overlords"
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Old 11-23-2010, 03:23 PM   #2
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Screw the Chinese overlords... We Canadians will be the next superpower.
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/SciTech/20...arming-100925/

All hail the new Canadian empire!!
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Old 11-23-2010, 03:25 PM   #3
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The US might lose the power to police the world, but I think they will have enough power to spare a few troops to fight any commie invasion for their biggest trading parter and non swamp gas exploding neighbor.
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Old 11-23-2010, 03:31 PM   #4
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Quote:
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The US might lose the power to police the world, but I think they will have enough power to spare a few troops to fight any commie invasion for their biggest trading parter and non swamp gas exploding neighbor.
I'd have to agree. It would take some pretty severe economic devastationt to stop the US from being some kind of super power. Look at Russia. Depsite long periods of economic misfurtune they still are pretty powerful militarily.

In addition, the US has a pretty big stock pile of nukes.

I'm more worried about the US invading than China.
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Old 11-23-2010, 03:32 PM   #5
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China has huge amounts of military manpower, but they don't have the logistics and naval capabilities to even invade Taiwan (assuming US support), never mind the ability to launch a massive trans-oceanic invasion of a country the size of Canada (which would automatically bring them into a war with every other NATO country).
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Old 11-23-2010, 03:37 PM   #6
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Quote:
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I'd have to agree. It would take some pretty severe economic devastationt to stop the US from being some kind of super power. Look at Russia. Depsite long periods of economic misfurtune they still are pretty powerful militarily.

In addition, the US has a pretty big stock pile of nukes.

I'm more worried about the US invading than China.
Unless the US is incredibly devastated and have no army to left to speak of, it's in their own strategic best interest to come and defend us.

Plus, a cross pacific invasion would be a huge logistical nightmare without an intermediate base... With satellite imaging and radar tech, either a huge fleet of ships or an intermediate base would be picked up well ahead of any potential force trying to land here.
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Old 11-23-2010, 03:41 PM   #7
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I wouldn't worry about a military invasion (yet), but I can see an "economic invasion" - buying up O&G (and other resource) companies in Canada (and then exporting resources to China). China has flexed it's economic muscle before and I could see them using it to get what they want
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Old 11-23-2010, 03:42 PM   #8
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A "Pax Sinica" is unlikely to take hold anytime soon. The U.S. and the E.U. are still viable players on the world stage, even during a horrendous recession. There is far too many interdependent variables at play in politics, economy and culture now for a hegemon to rise as easily as previous ones have. Just my two cents.
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Old 11-23-2010, 03:42 PM   #9
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Doesn't China already have a lot of investment and ownership in much of our oilsands resources?
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Old 11-23-2010, 03:53 PM   #10
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If China is going to invade us its economically.

Stalin once said that capatalists will sell communists the ropes that they will be hung by.

The American's place a huge emphasis on their military and as much as people cry for budget cuts, their cuts are usually cosmetic in nature and their savings are usually based around retiring older classes of weapons.

The American's while losing their economic balance will always pay for the upkeep of their defense. While they might not be able to fight two major conflicts plus several peace keeping actions like they were designed to do in the later half of the 20th century. They still managed to fight two land wars while maintaining a strong global military presence.

The focus for the American's has now gone to high speed war based on having better field intelligence then your side, while putting an emphasis on kill multipliers. While the average tank kill multiplier used to be 3 to 1, its now closer to 10-1 due to advances in their tank technology.

While the Chinese and Russians could be consisdered to be the other major players in terms of defense research, the American's have a fairly big technology edge in terms of their fighting equipment.

Usually the capabilities that we see with American equipment is not its true military capability because American's like to handicap themselves in excercises

On the chinese side they have a vast number of men in uniform, but while they have a decent airforce, they don't have the same capability as the American's have in terms of airforce and its not even close in terms of naval aviation even though the Chinese are looking at building a full sized carrier to add to their fleet. The Chinese don't have the troop carrying capability to carry out an invasion of Taiwan let alone anywhere else.

Where its nice to have a lot of men in uniform carry guns, the American strategy is around peeling back that capability before you even see them, examples of that are force projection with carriers and extremely long ranged missiles on air craft and other vehicles.

While we talk about American capabilities, I look back at the start of the first gulf war where Saddam spent lavish amounts of money on anti aircraft defenses creating one of the most advanced air defenses in the world, and the Americans destroyed that in a matter of days.

If I'm a military planner the last thing I want to plan against is fighting the American's even with a weakened army. They're just too well practiced, and too technology savvy to be easily beaten.
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Old 11-23-2010, 03:57 PM   #11
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If China is going to invade us its economically.
This.

And I will add that it will be a true 'cyber war' and over before pretty much everyone knows it even happened.
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Old 11-23-2010, 04:13 PM   #12
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The US really has succeed in vilifying China.
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Old 11-23-2010, 04:14 PM   #13
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China does a pretty good job of that themselves.
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Old 11-23-2010, 04:16 PM   #14
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Quote:
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The US really has succeed in vilifying China.
If not for the US vilification, we'd see China for what it really is - a cuddly, warm nation, much like the Ewoks...
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Old 11-23-2010, 04:27 PM   #15
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The US really has succeed in vilifying China.
China deserves whatever reputation it has.
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Old 11-23-2010, 04:30 PM   #16
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How can we fear a nation that prefers chopsticks to forks?
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Old 11-23-2010, 04:30 PM   #17
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Why would China waste so many resources in trying to invade Canada by force? Logistically, I don't even think it can be done. And why would they even want to? It's not going to benefit them in any way. I think there is a bigger chance that the U.S. would invade Canada before China ever considers it.

As the Captain said, if it's any invasion, it will be economically. They're already doing that to Canada and the U.S. by buying U.S. treasury bills and investing heavily in the Oilsands.

Last edited by The Yen Man; 11-23-2010 at 04:33 PM.
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Old 11-23-2010, 04:31 PM   #18
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lol
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Old 11-23-2010, 04:40 PM   #19
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I never said they're warm and cozy, not even close. They're a country I've given up on understanding culturally and from a humanitarian perspective.

That said, are they going to invade Canada? No. Not economically or militarily. Economic partnerships? Definitely. But money will change hands if they decide they want our resources. The cost (using the term cost in every context) for them to occupy a country of this size both after breaking through an international force of power is unimaginable. This notion of 'the Chinese are taking over the world!' may be true in some economic terms, but not to the degree that people here are suggesting. It's actually ridiculous.
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Old 11-23-2010, 04:53 PM   #20
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The I, Cringley podcast proposed that it's India who'll be the next Superpower.

India has more Population, more integration into Western Business, and they already speak English. He made some convincing arguments.

But, really, who knows?
Maybe it'll be Brazil.
I for one, would definitely welcome our new Samba-clad overlords.
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