BCS Standings

[octothorp]

Every year I complain about the BCS, but this year I'm trying not to be too critical of it and just appreciate it for what it is. Of course, it helps that I usually cheer for the Ducks, and they're looking pretty good right now. With just a few weeks left, here's the top 10 in the BCS Standings:

Ohio State
LSU
Oregon
Kansas
Oklahoma
Missouri
West Virginia
Boston College
Arizona State
Georgia

Still a lot of big games remaining and a lot of room for movement. Here's how I see them finishing:

LSU: A tough schedule thus far, and they've got more quality wins than anybody else in the country. They've been just barely winning the last few weeks, but with an easy schedule the rest of the way, they should be able to coast. There's some talk that even if they win out, Oregon, or Kansas, or both could still pass them. Maybe on the computers, but I think that the voters will respect LSU's schedule. That talk will be enough to ensure that they come out focused on racking up points in the last few weeks.
Oregon: A last-second, goal-line fumble away from being undefeated and likely the top team in the country. The thing that hold them back is that, beyond the early season rout of Michigan, all of their big games have been at home. Currently the only top-10 team to have beaten another top 10 team. Big wins by Michigan and Arizona in the final weeks will be good for Oregon's schedule-strength. I'm worried about the Oregon State game as a possible trap.
Kansas: I think they'll run the table, finishing with a home win over highly-ranked missouri. With that being their only win over a quality team, it'll be too little too late to bump them up into the top two in the minds of the voters (unless that Missouri win is a major rout), but they'll be second with the computers.
Oklahoma: Strength of schedule holds them back. At this point the only way they're gonna move up is if one of the teams above them loses.
Ohio: Obviously if I'm picking them to finish fifth, I'm picking them to lose one of their remaining games: that final game against Michigan in Michigan. Still a quality season, but not the big win on par with the other one-loss teams. Computers will favour Ohio for fourth, voters will go with Oklahoma.
Arizona: One big game remaining, at home against USC. They need that win to avoid tumbling down in the rankings. I think they'll get it. Pac-10 has been wild this year, and I don't think anyone saw Oregon and Arizona finishing ahead of USC, Cal and UCLA.
Georgia: They're in a good position to get a big bump over the next couple weeks, with two very winnable games against ranked teams at home. I expect them to beat both Auburn and Kentucky.
Michigan: They're playing great football right now, and a home victory over previously undefeated Ohio will be a fitting conclusion to a season that began so disasterously.
Connecticut: A weak schedule so far, but a game on the road against West Virginia in the last week of the season will allow the Huskies to demonstrate their worth.
Missouri: loss to Kansas will drop them, and if things shake out as I've described, tenth will be pretty much a toss-up between them and West Virginia. I went with Missouri simply because their loss would be to a better opponent.

Dropping out of the top 10: West Virginia, Boston College. The former I explained above with a loss to UConn. And I think that BC loses once more, on the road to Clemson.

[wpgflamesfan]

Ducks are the best team in the country right now IMO. I think they should be in the National Championship game with LSU. That'd be one hell of a game.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by wpgflamesfan

Ducks are the best team in the country right now IMO. I think they should be in the National Championship game with LSU. That'd be one hell of a game.

I agree. I hope Michigan takes out Ohio State!

[corporatejay]

That LSU team is pretty darn impressive though. Don't get me wrong the PAC-10 is a quality conference, and easily the second best in the country but the SEC is really unbelievable. To come out of there with only 1 loss (if that's what LSU does) speaks to the quality of that team. I think Ohio State is overrated but I've only seen them play once. The Ducks have been great, Dixon is pretty awesome to watch.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

That LSU team is pretty darn impressive though. Don't get me wrong the PAC-10 is a quality conference, and easily the second best in the country but the SEC is really unbelievable. To come out of there with only 1 loss (if that's what LSU does) speaks to the quality of that team. I think Ohio State is overrated but I've only seen them play once. The Ducks have been great, Dixon is pretty awesome to watch.

Yeah, I agree completely. As much as I love the Ducks, I think LSU's schedule is a bit above everyone else in the top 10. I'd rate the Ducks as having the second toughest, Arizona 3rd, and Georgia 4th (not currently, but by the end of the season). One of the things that sets LSU and the Ducks apart is that both had an out-of-conference game against a tough opponent (Virginia Tech and Michigan, respectively, and both absolutely dominated) to go along with a tough conference. Pac-10 vs SEC in the BCS Bowl would just be right on so many levels.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

That LSU team is pretty darn impressive though. Don't get me wrong the PAC-10 is a quality conference, and easily the second best in the country but the SEC is really unbelievable. To come out of there with only 1 loss (if that's what LSU does) speaks to the quality of that team. I think Ohio State is overrated but I've only seen them play once. The Ducks have been great, Dixon is pretty awesome to watch.

The SEC is so over-rated it's ridiculous. It's no better than any other conference - the only difference is that the SEC conferences have more fans and schools with more tradition.

And LSU is terribly over-rated as well. Yes, they're a great football team, but they've done very little to seperate themselves from the pack of one-loss teams. Everyone can claim they have more quality wins, but let's take a look and see how the final BCS top 25 looks. Those wins over South Carolina, Alabama, and Kentucky aren't going to be very impressive when they all finish unranked. Florida is terribly over-rated at 16th as well, but they'll stay in the top 25 simply because they won the NC last year.

I don't see how people complain that all of Oregon's wins came at home when all of LSU's did as well. And unlike LSU Oregon actually took care of business in their games and didn't need miraculous comebacks week after week to do it. I read a column on SI.com today and the writer nailed it: Les Miles is like a blackjack player who keeps yelling "hit me" on 19 and still manages to win.

Oh and octothorp, you need to consider the Conference Championship games in your analysis I think. Kansas will be in the National Championship Game if they win out - it'd be a joke if they didn't. Not only would they have to go through #6 Missouri, but unless something miraculous happens (you never know this year however) they'd play Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. If they win that game as well that gives them an undefeated record and 2 top 6 wins in the final three weeks of the season. There's no way you can keep that team (especially one from a BCS Conference no loss) out of the NC Game if that happens.

I see Ohio State beating Michigan, LSU losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship game, Missouri beating Kansas and getting some revenge over Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship game.

1. Ohio State
2. Oregon
3. Missouri
4. West Virginia
5. Arizona State
6. Georgia
7. LSU
8. Kansas
9. Oklahoma
10. Boston College

Oregon is the best team in the country and they'd prove it in January. I really hope that they don't get screwed out of the National Championship game.

This year is going to be the year that finally sparks action into the playoff debate - If Ohio State and Kansas lose which is very possible there could be 8 one-loss teams from BCS conferences (plus undefeated or one loss Hawaii and potentially one-loss Boise State). There's going to be some very upset schools if that happens.

And while I'm on that subject, what are everyone's thoughts on a playoff? I think that it's necessary, but they need to make it a lot lower key than most people suggest. A 32 or 16 team playoff simply would ruin college football. The reason college football is great is because every regular season game is just like a playoff game. Lose once and you might get a second chance - lose twice and you're done. I think an 8 team playoff with the 6 BCS Conference winners + 2 at-large bids would be ideal. It gives every conference a chance to compete and biases to traditional powerhouse conferences are exempt. The 2 at-large bids would work similar to how BCS bowls do now. I say if a non-BCS school goes undefeated they get an instant at-large spot regardless of BCS ranking (although it would almost certainly be high). If you run the table you deserve a shot at the championship. If there's no non-BCSers running the table take the highest two that didn't win their conference. There would still be some upset schools, but at least there's no potential for undefeated teams to not get a shot at the title. The regular season would still be very important as you couldn't afford more than one-loss and have a realistic hope of making the playoffs.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Yeah, I agree completely. As much as I love the Ducks, I think LSU's schedule is a bit above everyone else in the top 10. I'd rate the Ducks as having the second toughest, Arizona 3rd, and Georgia 4th (not currently, but by the end of the season). One of the things that sets LSU and the Ducks apart is that both had an out-of-conference game against a tough opponent (Virginia Tech and Michigan, respectively, and both absolutely dominated) to go along with a tough conference. Pac-10 vs SEC in the BCS Bowl would just be right on so many levels.

I really think that Ohio State is getting undersold by a lot of people.

It's easy to see that they haven't had a strong schedule - even Buckeye fans would tell you that. However, they've beaten down everyone put in their path. They haven't just won games, they've won them convincingly every time out. If you look at it, Ohio State and LSU have played some very similar teams.

Ohio St: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois
LSU: Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida, and Alabama

All in-conference games and all teams that will probably be around #20-35 by the end of the year. The main difference is that SEC schools get over-rated because of their tradition. Is Alabama really much better than Illionis? Or South Carolina over Purdue? Not by much (if anything) in my opinion.

The other difference is that Ohio State beat the crap out of their ranked wins. LSU needed a lot of luck (and home games) to beat theirs...and by less than a score almost every time.

[Flames in 07]

I don't get why OSU isn't a no brainer to folks right now. What have they done wrong?

Anyway good to see a few posts from people who don't spend too much time wetting the bed about the BCS. It's a decent system, with 117 teams and 12 games it's an ok system. They only problem with it is that it considers polls, which are garbage.

Overall I think people put too much importance on the NC, just enjoy all the bowls ... best time of the year.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

I don't get why OSU isn't a no brainer to folks right now. What have they done wrong?

Anyway good to see a few posts from people who don't spend too much time wetting the bed about the BCS. It's a decent system, with 117 teams and 12 games it's an ok system. They only problem with it is that it considers polls, which are garbage.

Overall I think people put too much importance on the NC, just enjoy all the bowls ... best time of the year.

I like this system, makes for a fun season. It's basically like being in a suicide pool. There are too many playoffs already.. this is unique

[ricoFlame]

Man, i wish it was practical to hold a legitimate tourney bracket to get the national champ. Long live the Pac-10!

[Antithesis]

Originally Posted by ricoFlame

Man, i wish it was practical to hold a legitimate tourney bracket to get the national champ. Long live the Pac-10!

The entire season is the playoff! Good grief, a tournament would kill the sport of college football. Regular season NCAA basketball games used to be worth watching to even a casual fan, now, it takes a real die-hard. Granted, the tournament is incredible, but football's bowl system suits it the best. The BCS is nowhere near as terrible as people make it out to be, in fact, I think it is great. A lot of people would be doing a lot of complaining if it went away.

[Displaced Flames fan]

You're forgetting that Kansas will have a Big XII championship game to play if they win out, presumably against Oklahoma. Also, while the Missouri game is technically a home game, it's being played in Arrowhead in KC and is most certainly not a home crowd. Should be split evenly.

If they beat Missouri and Oklahoma they'll be in the argument....but I'm with you. If LSU and Oregon win out they should be the 2.

OSU goes down to Michigan.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally Posted by ricoFlame

Man, i wish it was practical to hold a legitimate tourney bracket to get the national champ. Long live the Pac-10!

That's what's so great about Division I-AA...or whatever it is called now....I think it's actually the Championship Division which is a nice shot at Divison I's 'playoff' system.

Great to be a fan of a team like Montana and watch them have to play 3 or excellent teams to win a title.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by ricoFlame

Man, i wish it was practical to hold a legitimate tourney bracket to get the national champ. Long live the Pac-10!

But then the regular season would be as irrelevant as NCAA basketball is before the touney. Everyone loves the tourney, and that's fine, but the regular season is simply useless.

[ricoFlame]

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

But then the regular season would be as irrelevant as NCAA basketball is before the touney. Everyone loves the tourney, and that's fine, but the regular season is simply useless.

nah, i disagree. i just can't stand the fact that there are undefeated teams that don't even get a sniff at a natonal title based solely upon their stregnth of schedule or lack there of. For mid-majors, the regular season already is meaningless.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

But then the regular season would be as irrelevant as NCAA basketball is before the touney. Everyone loves the tourney, and that's fine, but the regular season is simply useless.

Completely disagree.

In basketball, the regular season determines conference tournament seeding. If a team gets the top seed in its conference tournament it is much more likely to make the tournament. I guess you have a point with the major conference powers, but then the regular season is already meaningless to them.

In football, one loss could mean the difference between getting a playoff berth and not. The regular season in I-AA certainly is NOT meaningless.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Displaced Flames fan

Completely disagree.

In basketball, the regular season determines conference tournament seeding. If a team gets the top seed in its conference tournament it is much more likely to make the tournament. I guess you have a point with the major conference powers, but then the regular season is already meaningless to them.

In football, one loss could mean the difference between getting a playoff berth and not. The regular season in I-AA certainly is NOT meaningless.

I think both systems are exciting in their own way. My question is how practical is a playoff in Div 1?

Let's say it's a 16 team playoff.

These are college kids, can they play an extra 3-4 games without burning out? When would these games be played? Are we dragging the season into February? How will fans travel? A school will send maybe 20000 fans to 1 bowl game per year. How can they send this many kids to 4 games since the games will be once a week and all over the country.

And if you were a fan of a team that got in. Which game would you buy tickets for? Remember, you're a poor student living on loans

My fear is a playoff becomes corporate with mostly suits attending the games.

[ricoFlame]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

And if you were a fan of a team that got in. Which game would you buy tickets for? Remember, you're a poor student living on loans

My fear is a playoff becomes corporate with mostly suits attending the games.

It's not the students who fill the stands for these teams in the bowl games.

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I think both systems are exciting in their own way. My question is how practical is a playoff in Div 1?

Let's say it's a 16 team playoff.

These are college kids, can they play an extra 3-4 games without burning out? When would these games be played? Are we dragging the season into February? How will fans travel? A school will send maybe 20000 fans to 1 bowl game per year. How can they send this many kids to 4 games since the games will be once a week and all over the country.

Start earlier, eliminate conference championships and maybe have the first round be at the higher seed's stadium rather than a neutral 3rd site. Also, there's about 6 months off between the end of the season and the bowl championship games. Shorten that up. I think Ohio State had to wait like 5 weeks between games before it got stomped by Florida.

I dont like the idea of a playoff game either. It really wont help a great deal and will just create more problems. 16 teams is a bit much (I would say 8 or 12 (with the top 4 teams getting a bye in the first round)) but then schools will be whining because they barely missed the cut line for the playoffs.

People do a lot of whining about the championship and about the BCS, but how was it back in the day when there was no championship series.

[OilersBaby]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

That LSU team is pretty darn impressive though. Don't get me wrong the PAC-10 is a quality conference, and easily the second best in the country but the SEC is really unbelievable. To come out of there with only 1 loss (if that's what LSU does) speaks to the quality of that team. I think Ohio State is overrated but I've only seen them play once. The Ducks have been great, Dixon is pretty awesome to watch.

I couldn't agree with you more. I was going to type out something similar after reading one of the responses above yours....LSU plays in a TRUE football conference. I'm a lil partial to the SEC since my husband went to UK (we're still upset about their loss to Mississippi State) but I think they have a tougher schedule than some of the other conferences....Ducks may beat LSU or whomever they end up facing in the National Championship game but I honestly think that LSU is a better team.

I hope UK plays somewhere good (in terms of the location) for their bowl game cuz we're going wherever they are....(so hoping it's somewhere fun cuz that would make a great New Year's!)