Bush jumps in Poll

[sjwalter]

Bush surges in poll

USA Today
Sunday, Oct. 17

Too short to excerpt.

President Bush surged to a solid lead in the latest USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup national poll, opening up an eight-point spread over Democratic challenger John Kerry.

In a poll taken Thursday-Saturday, Bush received 52% support from likely voters, Kerry received 44% and independent Ralph Nader received 1%. Three percent of likely voters had no opinion.

The 52% figure is a tie for Bush's largest support number since March, when it first became apparent Kerry would be the Democratic presidential nominee. Posted at 1:04 p.m. ET. It is a significant change from a poll of only a week ago, when Kerry received 49%, Bush received 48% and Nader received 1%. Posted at 1:13 p.m. ET.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselect...lectionline.htm

[FlamesAddiction]

According to a Reuters/Zogby poll, Kerry is actually moving in on Bush:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor..._poll_sunday_dc

It just goes to show what I was saying before. The only poll that matters is the one on election day. It's like an NBA basketball game. Most of the time, the last basket wins the game.

[sjwalter]

I was waiting for that one, and yes you are correct.

Just like the polls here in Canada, who showed Harper in the lead at one time and Harper lost, or should i say the conservatives lost.

These polls mean practically nothing besides the fact that they are interesting to see how people respond to comments made by the candidates.

I think Kerry's comment against Cheney's daughter hurt him.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally posted by sjwalter@Oct 17 2004, 01:29 PM
I was waiting for that one, and yes you are correct.

Just like the polls here in Canada, who showed Harper in the lead at one time and Harper lost, or should i say the conservatives lost.

These polls mean practically nothing besides the fact that they are interesting to see how people respond to comments made by the candidates.

I think Kerry's comment against Cheney's daughter hurt him.

Unfortunately, I gotta agree. Bringing up Cheney's daughter was bad. He didn't out her or cause any harm, but he looked a little petty. Bush calls him a liberal, he says "but the VPs daughter is a lesbian". There are millions of gay people in America, why bring up just one?

That was by far his worst gaffe of the three debates.

[CaramonLS]

Originally posted by RougeUnderoos+Oct 17 2004, 08:13 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (RougeUnderoos @ Oct 17 2004, 08:13 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-sjwalter@Oct 17 2004, 01:29 PM
I was waiting for that one, and yes you are correct.

Just like the polls here in Canada, who showed Harper in the lead at one time and Harper lost, or should i say the conservatives lost.

These polls mean practically nothing besides the fact that they are interesting to see how people respond to comments made by the candidates.

I think Kerry's comment against Cheney's daughter hurt him.

Unfortunately, I gotta agree. Bringing up Cheney's daughter was bad. He didn't out her or cause any harm, but he looked a little petty. Bush calls him a liberal, he says "but the VPs daughter is a lesbian". There are millions of gay people in America, why bring up just one?

That was by far his worst gaffe of the three debates. [/b][/quote]
Its forcing the Republicans to put names to faces of the gay community. I agree with what Kerry did, he made a point.

When GW said "I don't know if people have the choice to be gay or not" all its doing is delaying the inevitable... because I have friends who are openly gay, ones who have liked the same sex since as long as they've known.

If GW admits "No its not a choice to be gay" then he would be faced with a ton of other questions - not to mention it flies directly in the face of what he believes. Heck if the bible thinks being gay is a sin, then why are people born to be gay? Why does policy have to dictate these peoples lives if they have zero say in the matter of being gay? Their biggest sin is being born?

[sjwalter]

Another reason he said he doesn't know if its a choice or not is because everyone knows he has spoken against it and if he would have said its a choice which i believe it is then since the First Admendment says.....Freedom of Choice....the gay people should then have the freedom of being gay and being able to get married and all that.

As much effect as the comment had on the Republicans, who's to say Kerry now wouldn't mention any other Gay person he knows in Public again?

[troutman]

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/17/...nday/index.html

Bush goes 0 for 3 in the debates and makes gains in the polls? Strange times.

The latest poll, taken after the third and final debate last Wednesday in Tempe, Arizona, indicated an edge of 49 percent to 46 percent for Bush among the same group.

That is still practically even -- given the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The October 9-10 poll had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

But among likely voters Bush had a larger spread -- 52 percent to 44 percent. That compared with a 49 percent to 46 percent edge for Bush in the previous poll.

Yet as Democrat Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into electoral votes.

LA Times Electoral Vote Tracker;

Kerry now in big trouble. FLA and OH have gone to Bush. PA, NJ and IA up for grabs.

[sjwalter]

Originally posted by troutman@Oct 17 2004, 06:45 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/17/...nday/index.html

Bush goes 0 for 3 in the debates and makes gains in the polls? Strange times.

The latest poll, taken after the third and final debate last Wednesday in Tempe, Arizona, indicated an edge of 49 percent to 46 percent for Bush among the same group.

That is still practically even -- given the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The October 9-10 poll had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

But among likely voters Bush had a larger spread -- 52 percent to 44 percent. That compared with a 49 percent to 46 percent edge for Bush in the previous poll.

Yet as Democrat Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into electoral votes.

LA Times Electoral Vote Tracker;

Kerry now in big trouble. FLA and OH have gone to Bush. PA, NJ and IA up for grabs.

Damn that sounds good.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally posted by troutman@Oct 18 2004, 01:45 AM
FLA and OH have gone to Bush.

Florida has gone to Bush? I seriously doubt that. I still talk with all sorts of people in Florida and still have family there and I know no one that is voting Bush. Plus, pretty all of the endorsements that have come out of Florida in the past week have been for Kerry. I think Florida is going to go Kerry.

I think Ohio will be Bush. Pennsylvania looks to be headed Kerry and I think New Jersey will be Kerry as well (I have family there too and they feel its headed that way anyways). I think you'll see Indiana go Bush. That's the feeling I get anyways.

[sjwalter]

Florida will be almighty close, but i disagree with you, Florida will go Bush as will Ohio.

The rest i don't think anyone can predict, so we'll see come election day.

[troutman]

Originally posted by Lanny_MacDonald+Oct 18 2004, 03:52 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Lanny_MacDonald @ Oct 18 2004, 03:52 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-troutman@Oct 18 2004, 01:45 AM
FLA and OH have gone to Bush.

Florida has gone to Bush? I seriously doubt that. I still talk with all sorts of people in Florida and still have family there and I know no one that is voting Bush. Plus, pretty all of the endorsements that have come out of Florida in the past week have been for Kerry. I think Florida is going to go Kerry.

I think Ohio will be Bush. Pennsylvania looks to be headed Kerry and I think New Jersey will be Kerry as well (I have family there too and they feel its headed that way anyways). I think you'll see Indiana go Bush. That's the feeling I get anyways. [/b][/quote]
I hope you are right personally, but the most recent Florida poll has Bush with 49% and Kerry with 46%. (LA Times). Ohio has gone from Kerry to Bush, 51% to 45%. I don't think there has ever been a President that did not win Ohio (I remember hearing that somewhere recently).

The big "X" factor will be all the new registered voters. Did the Springsteen/REM show motivate young people to vote DEM? Or, will the religious right youth save the day for Bush?

[FlamesAddiction]

According to another poll, they are exactly tied:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor..._poll_monday_dc

[troutman]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Kerry 257 Bush 247

That is the first time I've seen Kerry leading at that site.

[nik-]

I can't see Ohio going to Bush. That state has experienced serious job loss under the Bush administration.

[Cowperson]

Three post debate polls have Bush ahead, one has them in a statistical tie.

Bush leads 52-44 percent among likely voters in a Gallup Poll taken for CNN and USA Today from Thursday through Saturday, up from 49-46 after the second debate.

Bush leads 50-44 among likely voters in a Newsweek Poll conducted Thursday and Friday.

Bush leads 50-46 in a tracking poll of likely voters taken Wednesday through Saturday for ABC News, up from 48-48 in the Tuesday-Friday period.

Another poll, released Monday, found the candidates deadlocked at 45 percent each among likely voters. The Reuters/Zogby three-day tracking poll gave the president a 46-44 percent lead over the Massachusetts senator the previous day, and a four-point lead the day before that.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6273430/

Cowperson

[troutman]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselect...arly-vote_x.htm

Problems reported with some Florida early ballots

[troutman]

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/15/....map/index.html

After strong performances in three televised debates, Sen. John Kerry has overtaken President Bush in the jackpot swing states of Ohio and New Hampshire, according to a new CNN survey that nonetheless shows Bush clinging to a small lead in the Electoral College.

[nfotiu]

Originally posted by troutman@Oct 19 2004, 02:57 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/15/....map/index.html

After strong performances in three televised debates, Sen. John Kerry has overtaken President Bush in the jackpot swing states of Ohio and New Hampshire, according to a new CNN survey that nonetheless shows Bush clinging to a small lead in the Electoral College.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

This site has things looking pretty good for Kerry. Looks like it could be all about Florida again.

[nfotiu]

Originally posted by nfotiu+Oct 19 2004, 03:02 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (nfotiu @ Oct 19 2004, 03:02 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-troutman@Oct 19 2004, 02:57 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/15/....map/index.html

After strong performances in three televised debates, Sen. John Kerry has overtaken President Bush in the jackpot swing states of Ohio and New Hampshire, according to a new CNN survey that nonetheless shows Bush clinging to a small lead in the Electoral College.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

This site has things looking pretty good for Kerry. Looks like it could be all about Florida again. [/b][/quote]
This is a pretty intringuing situation too:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6106804/

imagine if Florida had the same thing going on.

[troutman]

Originally posted by nfotiu+Oct 19 2004, 03:06 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (nfotiu @ Oct 19 2004, 03:06 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>

http://www.electoral-vote.com

This site has things looking pretty good for Kerry. Looks like it could be all about Florida again.

This is a pretty intringuing situation too:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6106804/

imagine if Florida had the same thing going on. [/b][/quote]
Interesting.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/p...lege/index.html

District system
The state's electoral votes may be split between candidates. Maine and Nebraska apportion their votes between congressional district and two at-large votes, but neither state has ever split its electoral votes

Pending
Colorado voters will decide on Election Day whether to change from a winner-takes-all approach to one tied to the state's overall popular vote. If approved, Colorado's nine electoral votes would immediately fall under the new system.

Winner-takes-all
All of the state's electoral votes go to the candidate with the most popular votes. Washington D.C. and all of the states, except Maine and Nebraska, currently use this system.