2025 NHL Centers Reference and which picks were used to draft them
I enjoyed all the discussion about how to get an elite C, and the picks required, so I attempted to do a more indepth look at the top centers in the NHL, how they performed, and where they were drafted.
I was looking into all the top 9 Cs that played last year and averaged more than 30 points per season over the last 3 seasons. I attempted to divide them into tiers, and gauge which draft pick on average would be required to draft a player of that calibre.
Tier 1 - Centers that average over 90 points over the last 3 seasons
McDavid, MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Hughes, Matthews, Crosby, Point, Barkov, Eichel, and Miller
Spoiler!
Average pick value,: 73.44 (2nd overall)
Average draft position: 10.6
1st overall: 5/10
top 5: 8/10
top 10: 8/10
top 16: 9/10
1st rounders: 9/10
One could argue that McDavid, MacKinnon, and Draisaitl deserve a bit of a super tier, but I decided that a top 10 center in the NHL would be a good starting point. I also based it on the regular season, so unfortunately playoff Sam Bennett didn't make the top tiers.
Tier 2 - Centers around a PPG
Thomas, Pettersson, Aho, Thompson, Scheifele, Hischier, Suzuki, Larkin
Spoiler!
Average pick value: 35.90 (9th-10th overall)
Average draft position: 15.3
1st overall: 1/8
top 5: 2/8
top 10: 3/8
top 16: 5/8
1st rounders: 7/8
This tier would probably be more contraversial. Pettersson had a bad year, Thompson plays a lot of RW, Celebrini probably should be in it, and Bedard might make it as well, but they don't quite get the support to make it.
Average pick value: 67.46 (2nd - 3rd overall)
Average draft position: 7.4
1st overall: 4/11
top 5: 8/11
top 10: 9/11
top 16: 10/11
1st rounders: 10/11
I omitted, both RNH, and Barzal from the list because they played mostly on the wing this year. I also think that Nudge got most of his points thanks to McDavid, but I could be biased. I'm not sure about Duchene, but I think he played enough C this year. Guys like Cooley, and Johnston are going to jump into this tier soon, but the body of work just isn't large enough yet.
Average pick value: 28.96 (12th - 13th overall)
Average draft position: 23.6
1st overall: 0/16
top 5: 3/16
top 10: 6/16
top 16: 6/16
1st rounders: 12/16
I left Shcmaltz, McCann, and Benn out because I felt as though they played too much wing. I'm on the fence regarding Giroux, and Seguin for the same reason, but I included them.
Average pick value: 38.51 (8th - 9th overall)
Average draft position: 14.9
1st overall: 0/23
top 5: 9/23
top 10: 14/23
top 16: 15/23
1st rounders: 20/23
I wasn't sure where to cut this tier, so I figured to use Backlund as a refernce. I excluded W. Smith, and Dach from the calculation because they didn't play much C this year. That said I fully expect W. Smith to transition to C sooner rather than later, and rise up the tiers.
Final Thoughts
As I was looking into the Cs in the NHL, I was surprised at just how many of them were drafted in the 1st round, or even in the first half of the 1st round. The elite centers, as expected, were almost exclusively drafted with a top 3 pick.
As I was compiling the list I was actually surprised at how many draws Duchene, and Giroux took. They could actually be low key great center/wing adds to whichever playoff team signs them.
Finally, I'm not calling for a scorched earth rebuild here, just creating a bit of a reference for myself to look at the various teams' center depth before free agency, so you all have a great day.
I appreciate the effort and it kind of drives home the point that you are really unlikely to get a star center outside of the top 3 or 5 and even then, you often have to do it a few times to find one because the quality of drafts varies year-to-year.
The 2013 draft is a perfect illustration to me about the tier difference from top 3 and beyond for centers.
Mackinnon and Barkov went #1 and #2, the Lindholm and Monahan at #5 and #6. Do Colorado and Florida have recent Cups if they have Lindholm and Monahan instead? Probably not. And nothing against the latter two. They were good picks and arguably the best picks to be made at that point. Horvat and Domi were the centers drafted next. The talent level just drops off that much with centers in typical drafts.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 06-10-2025 at 02:44 PM.
A quick thought- at first glance the first tier, showing an average of ~pick 10, is a bit misleading. It is generally top picks or a significant outlier, really skewed by Point. So if you’re picking 10th, you are unlikely to land one
Also I wouldn’t slot Malkin tier 4, he has 1346 points in 1213 GP
You were pretty clear that you pretty much need first rounders and high ones to be impact players.
In tiers 1-3, each list has one guy drafted outside the first round. Tier 4 has 4 more. And 3 more in Tier 5 if I’m reading correctly.
So when Brad Treliving trades away first rounders like they are candy, he is putting himself in a very poor position to restock the Lead cupboards. Haha. He sucks
Last edited by DeluxeMoustache; 06-10-2025 at 02:39 PM.
A quick thought- at first glance the first tier, showing an average of ~pick 10, is a bit misleading. It is generally top picks or a significant outlier, really skewed by Point. So if you’re picking 10th, you are unlikely to land one
Also I wouldn’t slot Malkin tier 4, he has 1346 points in 1213 GP
Yes, I completely agree. That's why I also attempted to use average pick value, which ends up as a 2nd overall based on the picks value. It uses the value the likes of puckpedia and Tulsky assign values to picks.
The Following User Says Thank You to gvitaly For This Useful Post:
Yes, I completely agree. That's why I also attempted to use average pick value, which ends up as a 2nd overall based on the picks value. It uses the value the likes of puckpedia and Tulsky assign values to picks.
Nice. Thanks, I was looking closer and that was just landing with me. Much appreciated
The Following User Says Thank You to DeluxeMoustache For This Useful Post:
In tiers 1-3, each list has one guy drafted outside the first round. Tier 4 has 4 more. And 3 more in Tier 5 if I’m reading correctly.
So when Brad Treliving trades away first rounders like they are candy, he is putting himself in a very poor position to restock the Lead cupboards. Haha. He sucks
You are correct. That said, I also think that 1st rounders get a bigger opportunity because a GM's neck is on the line with those picks. For example, the story about Backlund, and all the opportunity he got with the Flames because Sutter really needed a 1st round pick to pan out, and the organization couldn't develop a C to save its life.
It also kind of drives home the point that hyper focusing on centers outside of a certain range is at your peril. At #18 and beyond, I think you need to go for overall upside with maybe center being the tie breaker. In the top 5 though, you probably can't go wrong with a center in most years.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to FlamesAddiction For This Useful Post:
It also kind of drives home the point that hyper focusing on centers outside of a certain range is at your peril. At #18 and beyond, I think you need to go for overall upside with maybe center being the tie breaker. In the top 5 though, you probably can't go wrong with a center in most years.
Yeah, once you’re into the back half of the 1st round you’re in Charlie Coyle, Robby Fabbri, Jack Roslovic territory. Useful NHL centres. But not core guys.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by fotze
If this day gets you riled up, you obviously aren't numb to the disappointment yet to be a real fan.
tier 3 is an interesting tier- likely reflecting why it actually has a higher (lower? better?) average pick value than tier 2 as tier 3 has a lot of used to be or will be tier 1s in it
tier 3 is an interesting tier- likely reflecting why it actually has a higher (lower? better?) average pick value than tier 2 as tier 3 has a lot of used to be or will be tier 1s in it
I think it has a lot to do with using the average production over the last 3 years.
Tier 3 has several guys that were Tier 1 in their prime: Malkin(39), Stamkos(35), and are a bit older now.
Arguably Kopitar was very close to Tier 1, and definitely a Tier 2, but he's 38. Tavares, Zabinejad, were Tier 2 at their peak.
At the same time Celebrini, and Bedard are just starting their careers, and will likely advance in the tier list.
So yeah it's skewed by players past their prime, and ones that have yet to enter it.
The Following User Says Thank You to gvitaly For This Useful Post:
I think it has a lot to do with using the average production over the last 3 years.
Tier 3 has several guys that were Tier 1 in their prime: Malkin(39), Stamkos(35), and are a bit older now.
Arguably Kopitar was very close to Tier 1, and definitely a Tier 2, but he's 38. Tavares, Zabinejad, were Tier 2 at their peak.
At the same time Celebrini, and Bedard are just starting their careers, and will likely advance in the tier list.
So yeah it's skewed by players past their prime, and ones that have yet to enter it.
I mean that's kind of an ever rotating list. once celebrini and bedard are in their prime, some guys currently in their prime will slip out, guys like Malkin won't be in the league anymore and their will be a fresh batch on unproven but high ceiling guys.
Its a snapshot of the current state.
If you draw this into recent playoff success, the recent cup finalists are:.
Oilers
Panthers
Golden knights
Avalanche
Lughtning
Each have a Tier 1 guy in their prime.
The Habs didn't (but had a young T2 guy and didn't feel like a serious threat)
Stars (Had prime Seguin. Would of been a t2 giy at that time I think)
It feels like finding a t1/t2 guy should be our #1 priority.
Should Jack Hughes be on the first tier list? Great player but shouldn't he play more than 60 games per year to actually average scoring 90 points per year?
Should Jack Hughes be on the first tier list? Great player but shouldn't he play more than 60 games per year to actually average scoring 90 points per year?
Fair point, he hasn't been scoring 90/year, but whenever he played he played at a 99pt/82gp pace. For example this year he only had 70 points, but was scoring at a 93 point pace.
The tiers I used are definitely not set in stone and you can use the reference table(s) to form your own tiers, and gauge which draft picks were used to select them.
The Following User Says Thank You to gvitaly For This Useful Post:
It feels like finding a t1/t2 guy should be our #1 priority.
Agreed.
Out of the 10 tier 1 centers:
9/10 were drafted within the top 15 in the 1st round.
8/10 were drafted within the top 3 in the 1st round.
1/10 was drafted outside of the 1st round.
8/10 currently play with the team that drafted them.
2/10 were acquired through trade after falling out with the team.
Not to state the obvious, but there is only a small chance to get a player in the top tier outside of a top 3 pick, and there is an equally small chance that you will ever get one via trade. Point is also a big outlier. You would have to go down to tier 4 before finding more players drafted in the same range that he was.
If you combine tier 1 and 2:
10/18 were drafted in the top 5 of the 1st round.
14/18 were drafted within the top 15 of the 1st round.
14/18 currently play for the teams that drafted them.
You really need a top 5 or top 3 pick to get those kinds of players barring extremely good luck.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 06-11-2025 at 11:43 AM.
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to FlamesAddiction For This Useful Post:
Nice analysis but it seems subjective for the player rankings.
One thing I would say, for instance, is that Kopitar is not a Tier 3 center. He is NOW, but at his peak he was a Tier 1 C and I think if the purpose of the analysis is to determine how and where you are acquiring players and what you can expect from different draft levels, you should consider players at their peak.
On a side note, I wouldn't have Miller in Tier 1, while Thompson and Thomas are in Tier 2. There are other examples as well, which is why I am curious as to what the criteria is.
Would be interesting to do this with other position groups obviously (W, D, G) but also to do the inverse - if you pick a guy in round 1 at position X, how likely are you to get a top 1-2 tier guy, by position? Are wingers or centers a safer bet in the top 15? When does it make sense to pick a strong goalie prospect, given the opportunity cost of picking at other positions that are more stable in terms of providing contributors?
It's actually probably a good time to figure all this out as teams have been much better at drafting in the past decade and a half or so, at least in terms of their process. So the data can actually tell us useful stuff.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
Nice analysis but it seems subjective for the player rankings.
One thing I would say, for instance, is that Kopitar is not a Tier 3 center. He is NOW, but at his peak he was a Tier 1 C and I think if the purpose of the analysis is to determine how and where you are acquiring players and what you can expect from different draft levels, you should consider players at their peak.
On a side note, I wouldn't have Miller in Tier 1, while Thompson and Thomas are in Tier 2. There are other examples as well, which is why I am curious as to what the criteria is.
I just used the average point production pace over the last 3 seasons averaged out for simplicity's sake. It definitely is only a snapshot of the season, and I mentioned the likes of Malkin, Stamkos, Kopitar and even Tavares being rated too low now compared to where they in their prime. I could look at other seaons as well, but I was more interested in the various types of top 6 centers this year, and which picks were used to draft them.
If you'd like you could use the reference list I attached all the way at the bottom and re-order it, or I can send you a link to the spreadsheet instead via PM.
The Following User Says Thank You to gvitaly For This Useful Post:
2025 NHL Centers Reference and which picks were used to draft them
