Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Monahammer]

Hard to believe some people don't remember the gaudreauvertime incident lol.

[Poe969]

What was the incident?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

That would be sweet if Gaudreau leaves.

Forsberg is a notch below Gaudreau though. It would not be an upgrade. That's pumping his tires a bit too much.

I agree that Gaudreau is overall the better player, but I think Forsberg would be a really good fit. He is a shooter and would capitalize off Tkachuk's playmaking. He is also a year younger than Gaudreau, which is a bonus, albeit a small one.

As much love as Gaudreau gets for being one of the best playmakers in the league (and he absolutely deserves it), Tkachuk is also right up there.

I am starting to get pessimistic about Gaudreau re-signing, but I am optimistic that there is a chance that, if the right moves are made, the Flames can maintain competitiveness without Gaudreau. It will take more than just adding another premiere forward, but I think the team can keep on truckin.

This does raise the question as to whether Tkachuk signs an extension though, because if not, he might get traded anyway, at which point everything changes.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Except you have to work a full 8 years to get that money instead of 7. There are a bunch of possible scenarios you'd consider to find each person's tipping point:

1. Career ending injury
2. Buy out
3. League min. salary to chase a cup (~$850k at that point)
4. $2M AAV
5. $3M AAV
...
10. $8M AAV
11. $9M AAV
12. Decide to retire on your own terms

And then on each of those AAV's you might factor how likely you are to get any term at age 36 vs. 37. Also how the cap/salaries inflate over that time.

You could look at a lot of data, or just go with your gut to make some rough odds on each option...I'd say something like:
10% #1 or 2
20% #3/4/5
50% of an AAV $4-6M
20% AAV>$6M

For me, I'd be happy to get the total contract value within $4-6M to consider them 'equal' financially (before considering lifestyle/hockey fit). Who knows how Johnny looks at it? He's already "gambled" by not signing last summer or mid-season - was that about $$ or location? Probably a bit of both...

For the hypothetical I was a commenting on, money on a retirement contract was the parameter. We all agree if non monetary issues get involved it’s a different decision. Retirement contract implies no more contracts afterwards to chase a cup or otherwise. And buyouts are a nil impact because they can happen in either scenario. So is retirement. Career ending injury favours the 8 year contract.

My only comment was that, apples to apples, an 8 year contract at anywhere around 10.5 is nigh unbeatable financially. It’s certainly not the $1m difference Cobra suggested.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

For the hypothetical I was a commenting on, money on a retirement contract was the parameter. We all agree if non monetary issues get involved it’s a different decision. Retirement contract implies no more contracts afterwards to chase a cup or otherwise. And buyouts are a nil impact because they can happen in either scenario. So is retirement. Career ending injury favours the 8 year contract.

My only comment was that, apples to apples, an 8 year contract at anywhere around 10.5 is nigh unbeatable financially. It’s certainly not the $1m difference Cobra suggested.

I never suggested that it was a $1M difference.

I suggested that 8 years at $80M was about the same as 7 years at $76M.

It was you who seemed to say total dollars meant everything, and I used the example of you suggesting that $80M for 8 years was better than $79M for 7 years.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Hard to believe some people don't remember the gaudreauvertime incident lol.

Originally Posted by Poe969

What was the incident?

If only there was some kind of way to directly link people to posts instead of making vague references.

[Hockey_Ninja]

I don’t even remember the Gaudreauvertime incident

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by Hockey_Ninja

I don’t even remember the Gaudreauvertime incident

Probably a meltdown. It’s always a meltdown

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I never suggested that it was a $1M difference.

I suggested that 8 years at $80M was about the same as 7 years at $76M.

It was you who seemed to say total dollars meant everything, and I used the example of you suggesting that $80M for 8 years was better than $79M for 7 years.

Except I never used those numbers. And there’s almost no way to get to them.

[Macman]

It will be interesting watching Johnny if he does go to another team just because of the different linemates and dynamics of his new team plus division/conference.

He’s put up good numbers with the Flames but who’s to say that will automatically continue. He is a good player but playing in Philly or out east could be a lot harder and more physical.

He is leaving a good team situation here along with good linemates if he so chooses.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

In this case the Gio Cap cost us 2 years of prime Johnny. Yes, I think its foolish, and I mentioned that I thought that was what was going to happen.

Earlier, I posted the question 'which would you prefer 6x6.7 or 8x7.5'. I know I would have preferred the latter. Don't get me wrong, 6 years at that cap is fine, I just don't like leaving that many UFA years on the table.

Someone who was quite prescient, as it turns out.

[Mass_nerder]

Man, that 8 x 7.5 would be amazing right now.

[Roof-Daddy]

The good news is that if Johnny leaves and we get spurned by Forsberg and Kadri as well, there will be lots of cap space for Treliving to outbid other teams for guys like Ben Chiarot, Andrew Copp and Rickard Rackell

Haha

[Roof-Daddy]

For the people that are better at looking stuff up, when is the last time a player had 100+ points in their UFA year?

[Mass_nerder]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

The good news is that if Johnny leaves and we get spurned by Forsberg and Kadri as well, there will be lots of cap space for Treliving to outbid other teams for guys like Ben Chiarot, Andrew Copp and Rickard Rackell

Haha

This is one of those 'if I don't laugh, I'll cry' type things, right?

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

The good news is that if Johnny leaves and we get spurned by Forsberg and Kadri as well, there will be lots of cap space for Treliving to outbid other teams for guys like Ben Chiarot, Andrew Copp and Rickard Rackell

Haha

You ass! Lol

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

Man, that 8 x 7.5 would be amazing right now.

Who knows if JG was even willing to go 8 years back then. And even $1m extra causes a lot of dominoes to fall.

[Duffalufagus]

Flames are going to get ####ed by Gaudreau. Just not from behind like Tavares did to the Islanders.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

The good news is that if Johnny leaves and we get spurned by Forsberg and Kadri as well, there will be lots of cap space for Treliving to outbid other teams for guys like Ben Chiarot, Andrew Copp and Rickard Rackell

Haha

As Pike points out the Flames are limited with cap space even if Johnny walks

https://flamesnation.ca/2022/06/28/c...hout-gaudreau/

[Ryan Coke]

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

Man, that 8 x 7.5 would be amazing right now.

Consider that those additional 2 years would have worked out to 9.9 million each. Not exactly a screaming deal, even with hindsight.