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Old 09-09-2019, 12:23 PM   #21
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Dallas yes, but I'd take the Avs roster over the Preds every time especially with the Turris uncertainty.
I actually like what Nashville has done this summer, and I am still taking them ahead of Colorado.
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Old 09-09-2019, 12:33 PM   #22
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Any of you cowards brave enough to put a little action on Ottawa at 500-1?
That kind of long shot is boring to me. The real long shot game is teams like Carolina or Vegas their first year. A team that's a little unknown and could do something if things go right.

Longshotting a team like Ottawa on a year like this is like tossing $5 out the front door and hoping $500 comes flying back in.
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Old 09-09-2019, 12:39 PM   #23
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Longshotting a team like Ottawa on a year like this is like tossing $5 out the front door and hoping $500 comes flying back in.



or $2500 as the odds go.
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Old 09-09-2019, 01:34 PM   #24
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That kind of long shot is boring to me. The real long shot game is teams like Carolina or Vegas their first year. A team that's a little unknown and could do something if things go right.

Longshotting a team like Ottawa on a year like this is like tossing $5 out the front door and hoping $500 comes flying back in.
I was trying to be facetious. I think that Ottawa's odds are much worse than 500-1.


Maybe more like 10000-1
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Old 09-09-2019, 01:38 PM   #25
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Flames have the same odds at the Panthers.

I can't tell if that's an indictment on the Flames' playoff performance last year, or if they truly just believe that the Panthers are a diamond in the rough about to hit their stride. Seems very odd either way.
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Old 09-10-2019, 10:04 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Geeoff View Post
I was trying to be facetious. I think that Ottawa's odds are much worse than 500-1.


Maybe more like 10000-1
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Old 09-10-2019, 10:16 AM   #27
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http://www.vegasinsider.com/nhl/odds/futures/

· TB @6–1
· VGK @ 7–1
· TO @ 10–1
· Colorado, Boston @ 12–1
· StL, Dallas @ 16–1
· Calgary, Florida, Washington, Nashville @ 20–1
· SJ, Winnipeg @ 25–1
· Arizona @ 30–1
· Vancouver @ 40–1
· Edmonton @ 50–1
· Montreal @ 60–1
· LA and Anaheim @ 200–1
· Ottawa @ 500–1

Vegas, Colorado, and Dallas all look really overvalued to me (the payout for VGK to win the Pacific Division is 1-1!), and ranking Edmonton ahead of Montreal is hilarious.
Vegas at 7-1 really ??? lol
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Old 09-10-2019, 10:34 AM   #28
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Vegas at 7-1 really ??? lol
Even more ridiculous is that they are paying out 1-1 on bets to win the Pacific Division.

Make your bets now!


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Old 09-11-2019, 09:14 AM   #29
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Even more ridiculous is that they are paying out 1-1 on bets to win the Pacific Division.

Make your bets now!


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What are the odds for the Flames winning the Pacific?

The 20-1 odds on the Flames winning the SC might show that the "smart" money doesn't like the way the Flames are built for the playoffs.

The Jets at 25-1 ??? They lost Trouba 8, Myers 6, Chiarot 3.5 and Tanev 3.5 as well as Hayes 7M who all signed 4+ years at that cap hit.

28 M in 2019-20 Cap hit that was on the Jets playoff roster missing and replaced by Pionk 3M.

If the Flames are 20-1 the Jets should be 50-1

How did Toronto improve so much and the Flames regress?

Marleau Kadri Hyman Connor Brown Gardiner Hainsey Zaitsev Dermott out

Kerfoot, Barrie, Ceci, Spezza in

Last year Matthews and Marner were a combined cap hit of less than 2M

The betting world does not believe the Flames are a top 5 team like their 2nd place regular season and 289 goals +62 goal differential would indicate.
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Old 09-11-2019, 10:22 AM   #30
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...The betting world does not believe the Flames are a top 5 team like their 2nd place regular season and 289 goals +62 goal differential would indicate.
And this should not come as a surprise to anyone since the odds are not purely a product of performance expectations. Betting houses need to make money, so in addition to calculating on the basis of projections, that also need to factor in the popularity of one team over another among the betters—odds are affected by where the money is wagered, a lot of which is not necessarily all that “smart.”


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Old 09-11-2019, 10:38 AM   #31
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And this should not come as a surprise to anyone since the odds are not purely a product of performance expectations. Betting houses need to make money, so in addition to calculating on the basis of projections, that also need to factor in the popularity of one team over another among the betters—odds are affected by where the money is wagered, a lot of which is not necessarily all that “smart.”


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What are the odds for the Flames winning the Pacific?

I found it myself:


ODDS TO WIN THE 2019-20 PACIFIC DIVISION (4/15/20)
Team Odds
Vegas Golden Knights 1/1
San Jose Sharks 9/2
Calgary Flames 4/1


hard to trust a site that 4.5 is less than 4.

Last edited by ricardodw; 09-11-2019 at 11:12 AM.
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Old 09-11-2019, 11:08 AM   #32
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And this should not come as a surprise to anyone since the odds are not purely a product of performance expectations. Betting houses need to make money, so in addition to calculating on the basis of projections, that also need to factor in the popularity of one team over another among the betters—odds are affected by where the money is wagered, a lot of which is not necessarily all that “smart.”


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Holds true in most cases but hard to believe that the Winnipeg Jets are a popular team.

It would be a shock if the Flames did not lock up a playoff spot with a good margin of error. Winnipeg is supposed to be in for a battle to get a wild card spot. 4 teams in their division have lower odds to win the SC.

The teams with the largest fan bases NYR 30-1 and Chicago 40-1 would be teams who I would think have the odds shortened because of their popularity.

I think the Hawks at 40-1 might be the best bet on the board. 6 pts out of the playoffs last year and they did this mainly without an NHL level goalie... Lehner changes that! The Hawks will be the best team that Lehner has played behind.

Have the Jets become the Green Bay Packers of the NHL (without the winning tradition)
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Old 09-11-2019, 11:16 AM   #33
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http://www.vegasinsider.com/nhl/odds/futures/

· TB @6–1
· VGK @ 7–1
· TO @ 10–1
· Colorado, Boston @ 12–1
· StL, Dallas @ 16–1
· Calgary, Florida, Washington, Nashville @ 20–1
· SJ, Winnipeg @ 25–1
· Arizona @ 30–1
· Vancouver @ 40–1
· Edmonton @ 50–1
· Montreal @ 60–1
· LA and Anaheim @ 200–1
· Ottawa @ 500–1

Vegas, Colorado, and Dallas all look really overvalued to me (the payout for VGK to win the Pacific Division is 1-1!), and ranking Edmonton ahead of Montreal is hilarious.
Why would you post something dated June 15... before Free agency!!

Thanks for wasting my time!
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Old 09-11-2019, 11:19 AM   #34
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Why would you post something dated June 15... before Free agency!!

Thanks for wasting my time!
Payback's a you-know-what, isn't it?
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Old 09-11-2019, 11:38 AM   #35
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What was the St. Louis Blues' odds to win the 2019 Stanley Cup last year, on Sept 11, 2018?
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Old 09-11-2019, 11:40 AM   #36
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What was the St. Louis Blues' odds to win the 2019 Stanley Cup last year, on Sept 11, 2018?
Without looking, I would guess they were actually pretty high. The Blues made a tonne of off-season changes last summer, and were widely being touted as a pre-season favourite to go far in the playoffs. The big surprise was not that they won the Stanley Cup, it was how awful they were in 2019.
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Old 09-11-2019, 12:16 PM   #37
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Not sure about September 11, but on October 2 they were 20-1:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...vorites-to-win

Just within the top ten.
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Old 09-11-2019, 12:21 PM   #38
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Not sure about September 11, but on October 2 they were 20-1:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...vorites-to-win

Just within the top ten.
The fact that the Edmonton Oilers were paying out inside of the top-fifteen (and ahead of the Flames) last Fall should speak volumes as to the correlation between Vegas odds and actual results.
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Old 09-11-2019, 01:58 PM   #39
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Some teams are always going to have odds that are too high, simply becasue there are too many homers that will put money down on them, no matter what the odds are.

These teams include:
Toronto
Edmonton
Las Vegas.
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