The Democratic Presidential Nomination 2020

[Cali Panthers Fan]

^LOL at the last example. Well played.

[CliffFletcher]

A new poll casts doubts on the conventional head-to-head Sanders vs Trump numbers by factoring in which demographics actually vote.

Bernie Sanders Can't Count on New Voters

...New political science research by David Broockman of the University of California, Berkeley, and Joshua Kalla of Yale erodes some of that comfort. Broockman and Kalla surveyed over 40,000 people — far more than a typical poll — about head-to-head presidential matchups. They found that when they weight their numbers to reflect the demographic makeup of the population rather than the likely electorate, as many polls do, Sanders beats Trump, often by more than other candidates.

But the demographics of people who actually vote are almost always different from the demographics of people who can vote. That’s where their analysis raises concerns about Sanders’s chances...

About 37 percent of Democrats and independents under 35 voted in 2016. According to Broockman and Kalla’s figures, Sanders would need to get that figure up to 48 percent. By comparison, Broockman told me, in 2008, Barack Obama raised black turnout by about five percentage points...

...College-educated white women, for example, helped flip the House in 2018. They favor Biden over Trump by double digits, but Sanders by only two points. Sanders, however, seems to see little need to reach out to them. Speaking to The Los Angeles Times editorial board in December, Sanders said he didn’t believe the way to win against Trump “is to just speak to Republican women in the suburbs.”

Instead, he said, “The key to this election is, can we get millions of young people who have never voted before into the political process, many working people who understand that Trump is a fraud, can we get them voting?” Even if the answer is yes, it probably won’t be enough. If he’s going to be the nominee, the rest of us can only hope his campaign has a Plan B.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/o...gtype=Homepage

Democrat primary results so far show Sanders has not inspired any uptick in turnout of younger voters.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

A new poll casts doubts on the conventional head-to-head Sanders vs Trump numbers by factoring in which demographics actually vote.



Democrat primary results so far show Sanders has not inspired any uptick in turnout of younger voters.

It seems a reasonable argument to me. I think the Bernie youth movement has a bit of a ceiling too. Sure, there is a group of loud, young Bernie supporters, but a lot of young people are pretty apathetic/apolitical, or just anti-Trumpers. I don't know that Bernie gets young people outside his core supporters to vote that wouldn't already vote. The only real factor is his supporters staying home or voting for Trump in protest if he isn't the nominee.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

The thing is, they don't necessarily represent turnout, but they certainly represent a strong ground game. They make an insane amount of calls and knock on an insane number of doors. That's the primary reason he's been winning. That effect on turnout isn't generally talked about when the general happens - I'm not sure if people are just assuming that that sort of activity will happen no matter who is the nominee. I don't think that's the case.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

The thing is, they don't necessarily represent turnout, but they certainly represent a strong ground game. They make an insane amount of calls and knock on an insane number of doors. That's the primary reason he's been winning. That effect on turnout isn't generally talked about when the general happens - I'm not sure if people are just assuming that that sort of activity will happen no matter who is the nominee. I don't think that's the case.

That might be what Bloomberg is good for.

Also, there is so far little evidence that Sanders has influenced a good turn out this time around.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

The thing is, they don't necessarily represent turnout, but they certainly represent a strong ground game. They make an insane amount of calls and knock on an insane number of doors. That's the primary reason he's been winning. That effect on turnout isn't generally talked about when the general happens - I'm not sure if people are just assuming that that sort of activity will happen no matter who is the nominee. I don't think that's the case.

But there's a realistic limit to how much a candidate can increase turnout, no matter how many people they have out there knocking on doors. Obama was the first black presidential candidate. He represented a watershed in American history. He increased black turnout by 5 per cent.

Maybe Bernie will prove more inspiring and transformative to American political participation than Obama proved to black Americans. But that looks to me more like wishful thinking than a reasonable likelihood.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

How are Republicans any different in that regard? Trump had to pick Pence and not Ivanka or Vince McMahon because he needed a solid Christian right/base guy. Romney had to pick Ryan because he was a tea party Republican. McCain had to pick Palin to lock up the bat#### wing. Cheney had to pick Bush because someone had to be the front guy with name value.

Romney and McCain were clearly mistakes. Being painted into a corner. I think Trump could have picked any politician. He could have picked Kasich.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Romney and McCain were clearly mistakes. Being painted into a corner. I think Trump could have picked any politician. He could have picked Kasich.

Point being balancing the ticket has always been what both parties try to do to maximize the potential base so you don't over rely on swing voters.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

That might be what Bloomberg is good for.

Also, there is so far little evidence that Sanders has influenced a good turn out this time around.

Bloomberg has become quite a wildcard now. In theory he should exit now so there can be further coalescing behind Biden, but for like five minutes there he was looking like the centrist white knight who could actually win the nomination, so you wonder now about whether his ego can handle bailing. Ironically Bernie would now greatly benefit from Bloomberg staying in.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Bloomberg has become quite a wildcard now. In theory he should exit now so there can be further coalescing behind Biden, but for like five minutes there he was looking like the centrist white knight who could actually win the nomination, so you wonder now about whether his ego can handle bailing. Ironically Bernie would now greatly benefit from Bloomberg staying in.

Unless he pulls off some major upsets today, I think Bloomberg drops out and backs Biden tonight. It would be too weird to spend 500 million, hire all those people and drop out before anyone even has a chance to vote for you.

He may not even be hurting Biden that much unless he is getting 14% of the vote everywhere, as I think there are mechanisms that he can give his delegates to Biden.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Bloomberg has become quite a wildcard now. In theory he should exit now so there can be further coalescing behind Biden, but for like five minutes there he was looking like the centrist white knight who could actually win the nomination, so you wonder now about whether his ego can handle bailing. Ironically Bernie would now greatly benefit from Bloomberg staying in.

What if he decides to run as an independent up the middle if it comes down to Moron v Moron as the main event?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

What if he decides to run as an independent up the middle if it comes down to Moron v Moron as the main event?

The HBO mini-series in 5 years is gonna be even more lit.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

What if he decides to run as an independent up the middle if it comes down to Moron v Moron as the main event?

Well since no third party candidate has a chance in any universe to win a presidential election in the US he’d hand Trump another term. In the presidential election he’d siphon democratic votes and splinter it. He’s too anti gun to take Republican votes.

[Johnny Makarov]

I'm a huge Bernie fan but I wish he wouldn't go all NDP all at once. Just start with the free health care. Forget about the drugs and dental until next time. Also not sure about the free post secondary for everyone. Just put tuition limits on the schools. Like $80kus/year for ivy league schools is just stupid.

I voted Biden. I'm sure his VP won't be an old white senior male. I'm thinking a middle age black former president....

[Fuzz]

Biden should make Michelle Obama his VP.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

I'm a huge Bernie fan but I wish he wouldn't go all NDP all at once. Just start with the free health care. Forget about the drugs and dental until next time. Also not sure about the free post secondary for everyone. Just put tuition limits on the schools. Like $80kus/year for ivy league schools is just stupid.

I voted Biden. I'm sure his VP won't be an old white senior male. I'm thinking a middle age black former president....

I'm thinking a brokered convention that chooses as presidential candidate the wife of a middle age black former president is maybe the right answer.

[robbie111]

My guess if Biden gets the nomination is that Warren will be his VP. An attempt to unite the party.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

I'm a huge Bernie fan but I wish he wouldn't go all NDP all at once. Just start with the free health care. Forget about the drugs and dental until next time. Also not sure about the free post secondary for everyone. Just put tuition limits on the schools. Like $80kus/year for ivy league schools is just stupid.

I voted Biden. I'm sure his VP won't be an old white senior male. I'm thinking a middle age black former president....

Can the government put a tuition cap on a private school? Ca n they even ban private schools? And why are we restricting parents from sending their kids to better schools?

I think these policies sink Bernie, either now or in November. The debates with less people are going to get better and Bernie is going to be attacked.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by robbie111

My guess if Biden gets the nomination is that Warren will be his VP. An attempt to unite the party.

Warren is not a uniter, shes a snake.

[Senator Clay Davis]

If this cycle has taught me anything it's that maybe South Carolina should be first for the Dems. Biden gets one admittedly terrific result and he's gone from five and a half feet under right back to frontrunner. Nevada might be good too if it weren't a caucus, but clearly Iowa and New Hampshire are not really indicators of anything meaningful, plus they have very few delegates.