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Old 07-31-2022, 01:22 PM   #161
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Unfortunately corperate debt is independent of labour shortages.
A lot of corporations are also putting up record profits. Inflation means many businesses' profit margins are way up.

It'll be small businesses that get squeezed out. The big guys aren't laying anyone off.


https://nupge.ca/content/canadian-co...-record-levels
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Old 08-04-2022, 07:20 AM   #162
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1555050141203148800
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Old 08-04-2022, 07:59 AM   #163
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Who the heck is Steve Saretsky?

I mean assuming he's saying we are going into a recession - yes he's probably right. But why are we embedding his tweets here?
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Old 08-04-2022, 08:19 AM   #164
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I'm seeing a lot of companies still hiring, and still finding it exceedingly difficult.
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Old 08-04-2022, 10:31 AM   #165
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But why are we embedding his tweets here?
If he didn't have the [tweet] embed feature to foist upon us random useless tweets, he'd never post.


... can we remove the [tweet] embed feature?
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Old 08-04-2022, 10:38 AM   #166
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My company announced a hiring freeze this week. Tech industry based out of San Francisco. A lot of tech companies are either freezing hiring, or laying off at the moment.
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Old 08-04-2022, 10:48 AM   #167
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22k workers have been laid off in the U.S. tech industry in recent weeks.
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Old 08-04-2022, 10:49 AM   #168
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Who the heck is Steve Saretsky?

I mean assuming he's saying we are going into a recession - yes he's probably right. But why are we embedding his tweets here?
He's a realtor from Vancouver, who's been preaching on YouTube about housing crashes for years.
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Old 08-04-2022, 10:52 AM   #169
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Shopify just had a pretty large layoff, and Jobber had a layoff round a few weeks ago.

It seems like we're on the cusp of a pushback to the great resignation.
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Old 08-04-2022, 10:57 AM   #170
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Shopify just had a pretty large layoff, and Jobber had a layoff round a few weeks ago.

It seems like we're on the cusp of a pushback to the great resignation.
I think the question is if it extends beyond tech. Tech companies have taken a giant hit from their inflated valuations.
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Old 08-04-2022, 10:58 AM   #171
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He's a realtor from Vancouver, who's been preaching on YouTube about housing crashes for years.
He'll be right eventually!
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Old 08-04-2022, 11:05 AM   #172
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Quote:
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Who the heck is Steve Saretsky?

I mean assuming he's saying we are going into a recession - yes he's probably right. But why are we embedding his tweets here?
The word recession has a real meaning - two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

So the USA is/was in a recession.
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Old 08-04-2022, 11:19 AM   #173
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The word recession has a real meaning - two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

So the USA is/was in a recession.
Not in the US. Almost half of the US's post WWII recessions haven't had 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And they've gone through 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth before without it being considered a recession.

What hasn't happened in US history is a recession without an uptick in unemployment. The unemployment rate in the first 6 months of each recession:

1949: 4% -> 6.2%
1953: 2.7% -> 5.9%
1957: 4.4% -> 7.4%
1960: 5.1% -> 6.6%
1970: 3.5% -> 5.0%
1974: 5.1% -> 7.4%
1980: 6.0% -> 7.8%
1982: 7.9% -> 9.8%
1990: 5.2% -> 6.8%
2001: 4.3% -> 5.5%
2008: 5% -> 6.8%
2020: 4.4% -> 7.9%

So far in the first 2 quarters of 2022 unemployment has dropped from 4% to 3.6%. So while chances are the US will enter a recession (or may have started to already), if unemployment somehow stays low and GDP recovers in Q3, this will have never been considered a recession.
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Old 08-04-2022, 11:43 AM   #174
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He'll be right eventually!
I'm not convinced he will. There's not enough housing stock and too many people who have cash not tied to the economy.

They'll always be adjustments, but housing in certain areas will never be truly affordable.
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Old 08-04-2022, 11:48 AM   #175
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I'm not convinced he will. There's not enough housing stock and too many people who have cash not tied to the economy.

They'll always be adjustments, but housing in certain areas will never be truly affordable.
Unless the big one(earthquake) hits, which I am conveniently forecasting to happen sometime in the future.
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Old 08-04-2022, 01:23 PM   #176
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Unless the big one(earthquake) hits, which I am conveniently forecasting to happen sometime in the future.
You'll be right eventually!
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Old 08-05-2022, 03:37 AM   #177
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
Not in the US. Almost half of the US's post WWII recessions haven't had 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And they've gone through 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth before without it being considered a recession.

What hasn't happened in US history is a recession without an uptick in unemployment. The unemployment rate in the first 6 months of each recession:

1949: 4% -> 6.2%
1953: 2.7% -> 5.9%
1957: 4.4% -> 7.4%
1960: 5.1% -> 6.6%
1970: 3.5% -> 5.0%
1974: 5.1% -> 7.4%
1980: 6.0% -> 7.8%
1982: 7.9% -> 9.8%
1990: 5.2% -> 6.8%
2001: 4.3% -> 5.5%
2008: 5% -> 6.8%
2020: 4.4% -> 7.9%

So far in the first 2 quarters of 2022 unemployment has dropped from 4% to 3.6%. So while chances are the US will enter a recession (or may have started to already), if unemployment somehow stays low and GDP recovers in Q3, this will have never been considered a recession.
The 10-2 yield curve is inverted by 38 bps in the US. That, combined with the Fed steeply raising rates and the Treasury running a much more balanced (==less stimulative) fiscal position makes avoiding a recession pretty unlikely.

Really the most likely way the US avoids an "official" recession is by political power leaning on the NBER to avoid declaring one. More realistically, they will just wait to declare until their declaration is irrelevant - a course of action which is quite common for the group. NBER recession definitions are interesting in retrospect for historical purposes, but not especially useful as a definition in the moment.
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Old 08-05-2022, 07:59 AM   #178
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Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
Not in the US. Almost half of the US's post WWII recessions haven't had 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And they've gone through 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth before without it being considered a recession.

What hasn't happened in US history is a recession without an uptick in unemployment. The unemployment rate in the first 6 months of each recession:

1949: 4% -> 6.2%
1953: 2.7% -> 5.9%
1957: 4.4% -> 7.4%
1960: 5.1% -> 6.6%
1970: 3.5% -> 5.0%
1974: 5.1% -> 7.4%
1980: 6.0% -> 7.8%
1982: 7.9% -> 9.8%
1990: 5.2% -> 6.8%
2001: 4.3% -> 5.5%
2008: 5% -> 6.8%
2020: 4.4% -> 7.9%

So far in the first 2 quarters of 2022 unemployment has dropped from 4% to 3.6%. So while chances are the US will enter a recession (or may have started to already), if unemployment somehow stays low and GDP recovers in Q3, this will have never been considered a recession.
Another good jobs report for the US this month. Unemployment down to 3.5% - matching its 50 year low.
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Old 08-05-2022, 10:04 AM   #179
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1555563708281241601


Jobs haven’t been effected significantly here yet.

Last edited by Yoho; 08-05-2022 at 10:17 AM.
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Old 08-05-2022, 10:32 AM   #180
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Not in the US. Almost half of the US's post WWII recessions haven't had 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And they've gone through 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth before without it being considered a recession.
I am telling you the literal definition of a recession. Do with it what you want.
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