2016 NHL Draft

[SebC]

Damn it, day, go faster.

[cral12]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Very much disagree with taking Kyrou with a high 2nd

Oddly enough, Blues took him with Flames pick at 35th

(re: him going to Flames in my final mock draft)

[Ashasx]

From the Assistant Director of Scouting for the London Knights:

Jake Goldberg ‏@Jake__Goldberg
#NHLDraftThoughts (1/10): Building models to predict "successful" NHLers can be very dangerous without a proper definition of "success"

(2/10) GP is not an indicator of "success". Showing up to work is not enough. It's what you produce in those GP that matters. #WeCanDoBetter

(3/10) The draft is about value creation. Picking a player with bottom 6 F, 5-6 D and 2 G potential = value destruction. #GettingCloser

(4/10) Smart teams will sign them as FAs at near league minimum AAV. No draft pick spent and no uncertainty if they will reach their ceiling

(5/10) Success can only be defined as a prospect who achieves above replacement value status. This is what we call an asset.

(6/10) Take a player with a 5% chance of becoming a top 6 F and a 95% chance of being a bust over one with 100% certainty of being a 4th liner

(7/10) top 6F, top 4D and starting G can't be signed on cheap AAV deals, that is, unless you draft them.

(8/10) But how do you find top 6F, top 4D and starting Gs outside of the first 2 rounds? There are tools to increase your odds of "success".

(9/10) 1st, make sure you have the right definition of "success" in your model. 2nd, find trends in late picks who become successful NHLers

(10/10) From 1990-2010, 50% of successful forwards picked after Rd 2 were re-entry players. No coincidence the Leafs took 5 of them in 2016.

[druetetective]

Flames have also picked up on the trend mentioned in the last point. Taking 6 OA in over the last 6 picks.

We'll have to follow their success rate versus the rest in the coming years.

Mangiapane and Falkovsky seem like shrewd picks IMO. Not sure about guys like Harrison though.

[cral12]

Usually do this before the draft, but decided to wait til the offseason this time around. This is admittedly having some fun with the rankings, but intriguing to look at it with this gameful mindset.

Tkachuk did drop slightly compared to draft position but could have just as easily been placed at 4th as the guys were pretty tight.

4 of 2016 Flames picks did land in top 51, for what it's worth!

Hand-crafted specially for fantasy hockey junkies, although certainly not exclusive to.

The following rankings are based on a prospect’s pure offensive potential. Goalies get no love here. Apologies to the vital guardians of the goal, but your potential is just too monumentally difficult to predict from a fantasy armchair GM’s point of view.

You will quickly notice some of the undersized forwards and blueliners creep up the rankings in comparison with my Final Rankings. I have attempted to implement a healthy dose of realism as, as by strict use of my own definition, some of these diminutive players would have ranked even higher. Also, I have taken into account that because of some prospects‘ solid all-around ability, they may get more ice time, which may in turn translate in offensive output. Those who are hooked on hockey simulator-based leagues where defensive traits and goalie prospects are more valuable, you want to pay more attention to my regular draft rankings.

Here's the Top 5:
(apologies - formatting doesn't play nice)

Rank Name Team Pick CR Ht Pos Prospect Profiler Notes
1 Matthews, Auston TOR 1 1 6’2 C
Auston “Powers” is a franchise centre; American version of Toews
2 Laine, Patrik WPG 2 2 6’4 RW
Gifted Finnish Finisher; high end sniper
3 Puljujarvi, Jesse EDM 4 3 6’4 RW
The Finnish Ultimate Weapon; Finnish version of Mats Sundin
4 Jost, Tyson COL 10 5 5’11 C/RW
Possesses tremendous speed, vision and hockey IQ; WJAC MVP, U18s Top Forward
5 Nylander, Alexander BUF 8 7 6’1 RW Alexander Maximiliam Michael Junior Nylander Altelius: offensive catalyst

2016 NHL Draft Rankings: Top 60 Prospects for Fantasy Hockey - LINK

Flame away...

[Monahan For Mayor]

In my sim league we did our draft on Saturday. I had 6th overall. Ended up trading 6th overall for 14th and 16th. Tkachuk-Dubois- Fins were off the board. I was able to draft Kieffer Bellows and Jakub Chychrun with those picks.

Do you do this trade or do you take one of the guys still on the board ? I personally feel I robbed him.

Edit- Matthews obviously off aswell

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by Monahan For Mayor

In my sim league we did our draft on Saturday. I had 6th overall. Ended up trading 6th overall for 14th and 16th. Tkachuk-Dubois- Fins were off the board. I was able to draft Kieffer Bellows and Jakub Chychrun with those picks.

Do you do this trade or do you take one of the guys still on the board ? I personally feel I robbed him.

Edit- Matthews obviously off aswell

Who did he draft with the 6th? I think you got robbed.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Monahan For Mayor

In my sim league we did our draft on Saturday. I had 6th overall. Ended up trading 6th overall for 14th and 16th. Tkachuk-Dubois- Fins were off the board. I was able to draft Kieffer Bellows and Jakub Chychrun with those picks.

Do you do this trade or do you take one of the guys still on the board ? I personally feel I robbed him.

Edit- Matthews obviously off aswell

Depends how the league works. But Alex Nylander is probably gonna put up a bunch of points long term in Buffalo with their young core of Eichel, Reinhart, O'Reilly, etc. Unless Okposo keeps him down the lineup. Bellows is much less of a sure thing and I'm not sure Chychrun is going to be a massive offensive force.

Is this pure fantasy based mostly on points? Or more like real NHL teams? Not sure I like trading down that far in either scenario.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by Monahan For Mayor

In my sim league we did our draft on Saturday. I had 6th overall. Ended up trading 6th overall for 14th and 16th. Tkachuk-Dubois- Fins were off the board. I was able to draft Kieffer Bellows and Jakub Chychrun with those picks.

Do you do this trade or do you take one of the guys still on the board ? I personally feel I robbed him.

Edit- Matthews obviously off aswell

I think you traded a "pretty sure thing" for a couple "maybe's". I was in favour of trading down for the Flames, but not this far down. You needed to get a pick in the 9-12 range...

[Ashasx]

If you were told before the season began that Pierre-Luc Dubois, through the first dozen games of the OHL season, would either have 24 points or 12 points, I don't think many people would have picked the latter.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

If you were told before the season began that Pierre-Luc Dubois, through the first dozen games of the OHL season, would either have 24 points or 12 points, I don't think many people would have picked the latter.

I'm more surprised he's playing in the OHL, did he get traded?

[Mass_nerder]

I still think dubois at 3 was crazy.
I definitely would have had him 5th.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

I'm more surprised he's playing in the OHL, did he get traded?

bad typo by me, please ignore

[calgaryblood]

Well Burke just said Johnson is the number one starter and has earned it.


Edit: clicked on the wrong thread apparently, meant to post in the "starter" thread.