Cannabis is legal

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Because they are like $2 for a bag.

I’m mostly in agreement with your argument. But your analogies aren’t close to being comparable.

Okay, use avocados, then.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Okay, use avocados, then.

You can grow avocados in Canada???

I’m just messing around, my whole point is I was hoping for a stronger plan to wipe the black market out and I feel like they didn’t do a good enough job. It’ll happen though, eventually.

[Matata]

How about "if people were already accustomed to consuming carrots at $1 to $1.5/bag and there was a ton of infrastructure set up to supply carrots at those prices. If Safeway starts to sell carrots at $2 a bag, what would happen to the black market carrots?"

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

I am not a user so might be way off base here, but I would assume if an airline can deny boarding due to alcohol intoxication they could also deny boarding to someone who is 'rip roaring stoned' if it was obvious?

Based on what exactly though? They ban drunks because they start fights and act belligerent. None of that applies for marijuana.

Worst case scenario I get the munchies and fall asleep.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz

Just like it is today with booze.
All those 17 year olds filling up the speak-easys and keeping their local moon-shiners in business.

The two are nothing alike. Pot is far easier to produce, transport, and distribute than alcohol, and there is already a robust clandestine market in place meeting the needs of heavy users.

But don't believe me. Take a minute or two out of your life to read the analysis by the experts on the subject who say there will be a black market for pot in Canada alongside the legal market for a long time. This isn't speculation. Pot has been legal in Colorado for 6 years and a third of its cannabis sales are still black market.

[RyZ]

There are different degrees of "Terry" out there in this business.

The small Terry who meets random people/youth in a parking lot for a $30 sale is going to be in trouble and will likely be phased out quickly.

The older, long time, established Terry who sells to only a close group of friends/customers in larger amounts aren't going to be all that concerned with this until they see what kind of price points they are up against for ounces and larger quantities etc.

I have a friend in the second group who gets asked questions about this frequently lately and he is under the impression that he may be able to raise his prices on "bulk" product and still blow the legal market out of the water.

None of these questions are going to be answered until we start to see the quality level and price points the legal shops are selling at. Price is still king and the 2nd Terry is going to stick around and maybe even grow if the legal shops are selling at the kind of price points the legal US markets are selling at.

I think we could see 2 different markets emerge, one for the "weekend warriors" buying small amounts to use on weekends will stick to the legal shops. Long time habitual users buying in larger amounts will stick with their "Terry" that they have been doing business with for years.

Im very interested to see how it all plays out in the coming weeks/months.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The two are nothing alike. Pot is far easier to produce, transport, and distribute than alcohol, and there is already a robust clandestine market in place meeting the needs of heavy users.

But don't believe me. Take a minute or two out of your life to read the analysis by the experts on the subject who say there will be a black market for pot in Canada alongside the legal market for a long time. This isn't speculation. Pot has been legal in Colorado for 6 years and a third of its cannabis sales are still black market.

So 66% of pot sales are through legal means after six years? Sixty-six out of 100 Terrys are out of business (I know it's not a direct correlation, but Terrys are going out of business)?

That is completely inline with what I'm saying. I don't think Terry is going away October 18, but over the years he'll fade away into nothing. How long after prohibition ended until moonshiners were not much more than a punchline? Was it 10 years? 15 years?

[Coach]

After only 6 years of legalization, 2/3 of the black market for cannabis has been wiped out.

Funny how phrasing changes things.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The two are nothing alike. Pot is far easier to produce, transport, and distribute than alcohol, and there is already a robust clandestine market in place meeting the needs of heavy users.

But don't believe me. Take a minute or two out of your life to read the analysis by the experts on the subject who say there will be a black market for pot in Canada alongside the legal market for a long time. This isn't speculation. Pot has been legal in Colorado for 6 years and a third of its cannabis sales are still black market.

As other people have pointed out, the fact that only 1/3 of sales are black market can be construed both ways.

Not to mention you are the guy who made the 80/20 rule argument about Pot.
So if 20% of users are making 80% of the purchases, and now only 30% of sales are black market, that means <10% of people are buying their pot from "Terry" now.

And that's not even getting into the fact that Colorado and Canada aren't exactly perfect analogs, considering you won't have contradicting legal status between federal and state/provincial law.

Now add on the fact that a ton of people are already using grey market sources, and those people are almost certainly going to switch to legal sources, and you've got quite a different situation than Colorado, which as you so clearly pointed out, is doing a pretty solid job of eliminating black market sales.

[Matata]

If weed in colorado is like weed in washington state, it's super cheap. I paid $5/gram for awesome weed in washington state and that wasn't even the cheapest weed. The premium prices the canadian government wants to charge will be a huge hurdle, even getting 2/3 the market legitimized seems to be a pretty lofty goal.

[FireFly]

When I purchased in Washington, I really enjoyed how the sales staff in the store helped me out. There were charts that had THC % and indica vs sativa, etc. It was a very different experience from buying from Terry. Stores will also be the way to go for the novice user.
So many people tell me they just 'get munchies and fall asleep' when they smoke weed so they don't get the big deal. When I tell them they need to smoke a different strain, I can't tell you how many people end up with a confused look on their face. Most of the non-smokers I know had no idea that there even are different strains of pot that will give them different highs. Almost all of them have told me that they will go to a store once they open to learn more about it and then try.


Terry doesn't educate you, he just sells it.

[socalwingfan]

Our local dispensary, the price of an 1/8 is anywhere between 21.58 and 53.60. Also as mentioned above, you get the added bonus of dealing with people that can point you out to what you are looking for exactly

[FireFly]

Oh man, that $53.60 weed had better be good!

[Kiran403]

AGLC just released the first list of licensed shops available to open on October 17th. There are 17 locations throughout the province with 2 of them being in Calgary. Both are in the south (9700 block of Macleod) and Willow Park Shopping Centre.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Lol. Forgot the AGLC is involved. Frankly I’m shocked they even got around to issue 17 licenses. Better line up now or you won’t be getting weed until about March.

[Coach]

Lol. They better get staffed up. October 17 is going to be a s***show.

[getbak]

2 approved in Calgary, 3 in Medicine Hat. All the rest are in the Edmonton area.

https://aglc.ca/cannabis/retail-cann...tail-locations


They expect 250 to be open province-wide by the end of the year.

[GGG]

The biggest reason Terry is going to be crushed is his costs are going up. Unlike the US where weed is still illegal and there is still a grow op market outside of legal areas Canada will be legal everywhere.

This means that the number of wholesalers supplying Terry is going to drop significantly. The risk to the grow up will also be much higher as the government cracks down on illegal weed. This means Terry costs are going up. Now the number of people willing to be Terry’s will drop as enforcement increases. Marijuana laws have been unenforced even on the trafficking end since the liberals came to power. This has lowered the consequence of being Terry therefore increases competition and decreased cost.

So when weeds legal Terry’s wholesale cost is going up, his risk is going up, and his number of customers is going down. For him to stay in the business he has to raise his prices. As he raises prices his competitive edge disappears.

So if I’m a betting person I’m going with less illegal marijuana than illegal ciggerettes within 5 years. Once the US legalized marijuana the amount of untaxed weed sold in Canada will creep back up to ciggerette levels.

[nik-]

Two??????

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by nik-

Two??????

Ya, but there is only an estimated 17% of the population who smokes weed, which is like 200 000 in Calgary. Each store should have no problem serving 100 000 people. It's the government, I'm sure they have thought this through.