American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by edslunch

You’re on top of the emigration facts. What’s your theory about why it’s happening!

socialists, antifa and BLM, over run the state is I tell ya

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by edslunch

You’re on top of the emigration facts. What’s your theory about why it’s happening!

It says right there in my post. Young voters dont like housing prices and older ones dont like the taxes and political environment

I'm sure the fires and lack of electricity don't help.

[GirlySports]

It's like why the heck would anyone live in BC?

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

It says right there in my post. Young voters dont like housing prices and older ones dont like the taxes and political environment

I'm sure the fires and lack of electricity don't help.

I mean, I hate to add anecdotal evidence to his claim, but this is the exact reason we left a few years ago. Great place to live, but the housing is exorbitant. It wasn't really about anything else other than that and the desire to be closer to family.

I suspect that the extreme point advantage for Biden is because a California Republican is ideological and still believes in the constitution. I'm not sure if people from Kentucky or Oklahoma would say the same thing. They're being swayed to vote for Biden because Trump is a monster, not because they aren't still Republican.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

to put it in perspective Michigan loses 100,000 to 100,500 a year from a population of 9 million

And that's just from the shootings.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Magnum PEI

If I'm reading these right it shows California had massive net losses of population due to state to state migration. -190,000 in 2018 and -138,000 in 2017.

For comparison, Arizona had a net gain of 94,000 in 2018. Texas +102,000.

I think you're reading it wrong. In 2018, California does lose 691,145 (.017% of population) they have a gain of 772,335 from other states and out of country, giving them a net of +81,190. You have to look at the cross tab numbers to see the gains from state-to-state and out of country. Also, that 691,145 loss is based off a population of 39,114,889. Compare that to Texas where they lost 462,140 of 28,333,482 (.016%) and that is a similar loss. You could also look at Alaska where they lost 39,246 of 727,164 (.053%) or or Arizona where they lost 179,586 of 7,090,137 (.025) and see how the numbers compare. It's not a massive population loss any way you look at it, even on just loss stats and not looking at gains.

[SportsJunky]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1309494377744445441

https://twitter.com/user/status/1309620608561414144

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I was just looking at whether this whole "let's shove abortion to the forefront" thing was likely to result in a surge of women going to the polls to protect their right to choose. Weird outcome: the polling I'm seeing is that 61% of Americans think abortion should be legal in most, or all cases (27 all, 34 most). But there's no gender divide. 61% of men think that, and 60% of women.

Obviously most Democrats (82%) are pro choice. But even 36% of Republicans are. I just find it unlikely that for most of that group, it would be a driving issue that would swing their vote to Biden.

There's also not as much of an age split as you'd think. 70% of 18-29 are pro-choice, but every age group is too, with 55% of 65+ saying it should be legal in most or all cases. Intuition tells me the opposite on this one though; I would think that this could be a motivating factor for a few 18-29 voters who might otherwise have stayed home and pouted about Bernie not being in the race to get to the polls.

https://www.pewforum.org/fact-sheet/...n-on-abortion/

[GirlySports]

It might be another one of those silent issues. In today's climate, I'm not sure someone who is pro-life is going to shout it from the rooftops. Many conservatives views have been, and moreso now, keep their views quiet and personal.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

https://twitter.com/user/status/1309494377744445441

https://twitter.com/user/status/1309620608561414144

New polls released today indicate a large and legitimate poll where Graham is ahead by 1 point, but another smaller and less legitimate one where Harrison is ahead by 2 points. This, in a state, where Trump is ahead by double digits. That just shows how much Lindsay Graham is disliked.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...outh-carolina/

I said this last week, but I donated $100 to Harrison's campaign. I encourage any other American reading this thread to donate something to Harrison as well. Graham has fewer convictions than Trump...and that's saying something.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

It might be another one of those silent issues. In today's climate, I'm not sure someone who is pro-life is going to shout it from the rooftops. Many conservatives views have been, and moreso now, keep their views quiet and personal.

Not my experience at all. The most vocal people lately seem to be the conservative, if you can call it that, viewpoints.

[Magnum PEI]

Originally Posted by New Era

I think you're reading it wrong. In 2018, California does lose 691,145 (.017% of population) they have a gain of 772,335 from other states and out of country, giving them a net of +81,190. You have to look at the cross tab numbers to see the gains from state-to-state and out of country. Also, that 691,145 loss is based off a population of 39,114,889. Compare that to Texas where they lost 462,140 of 28,333,482 (.016%) and that is a similar loss. You could also look at Alaska where they lost 39,246 of 727,164 (.053%) or or Arizona where they lost 179,586 of 7,090,137 (.025) and see how the numbers compare. It's not a massive population loss any way you look at it, even on just loss stats and not looking at gains.

The charts are labeled State to State Migration. Yes California's population is growing due to international immigration and natural growth, but domestically it's losing population, quite a lot, while similar states (Arizona, Texas) are gaining. I thought this was obvious.

Look at the chart BoLevi posted, it shows a net loss of ~3 million people over 18 years.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

https://twitter.com/user/status/1309494377744445441

https://twitter.com/user/status/1309620608561414144

That Lincoln Project ad is hilarious and on point after Graham's hilarious pleas on Fox for donations!

[activeStick]

Republican Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, in a rare stance seen from Republicans, went against Trump last week in response to questions about mail in ballots being at risk for fraud, as well as Trump essentially saying he'd refuse to agree to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses.

Nice to see that some Republicans are still willing to stand up to Trump.

When asked about Trump’s comments on a transition Thursday, Baker gave a fired-up response.

“Mail in ballots have been with us forever,” the governor said.

“It is appalling and outrageous that anyone suggest for a minute, that if they lose an election they’re not going to leave,” Baker said, raising his voice. “That peaceful transfer of power is what the people in this country rely on when they go to vote.”

Baker said following the will of the people is “fundamentally why there is a United States of America in the first place.”

https://boston-cbslocal-com.cdn.ampp...arlie-baker%2F

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I was just looking at whether this whole "let's shove abortion to the forefront" thing was likely to result in a surge of women going to the polls to protect their right to choose. Weird outcome: the polling I'm seeing is that 61% of Americans think abortion should be legal in most, or all cases (27 all, 34 most). But there's no gender divide. 61% of men think that, and 60% of women.

It's always struck me as odd that abortion is treated as a gendered political issue. Women are as likely to be pro-life as men (an underreported fact that I suspect would surprise most liberals). The issue doesn't divide along gender lines, but along religious lines.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Not my experience at all. The most vocal people lately seem to be the conservative, if you can call it that, viewpoints.

In the real world or online? I work in a white-collar job in corporate Calgary. If I mentioned to colleagues that I was pro-choice, nobody would think anything of it. If I said I was pro-life, I'm certain it would surprise my colleagues, and seriously damage my social and maybe even professional status in their eyes.

In the companies I've worked at in the last 20 years, people are reluctant to even mention they go to church.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Originally Posted by Magnum PEI

The charts are labeled State to State Migration. Yes California's population is growing due to international immigration and natural growth, but domestically it's losing population, quite a lot, while similar states (Arizona, Texas) are gaining. I thought this was obvious.

Look at the chart BoLevi posted, it shows a net loss of ~3 million people over 18 years.

I don't know, but could this be explained by California being a major point of entry? LAX and SFO are likely the point of entry for many of the international immigrants by air, and San Diego by land. Once immigrants arrive it would be logical that they start to live the American dream where they landed, and then move as they search for opportunities.

Would that show up as international migration into California, but state to state when the same person moves to another state?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It's always struck me as odd that abortion is treated as a gendered political issue. Women are as likely to be pro-life as men (an underreported fact that I suspect would surprise most liberals). The issue doesn't divide along gender lines, but along religious lines.

Has this always been true, though? Is it true in Canada? Regardless, it's been marketed as a "woman's issue" for an entire generation and I'm a bit surprised that that appears not to have actually made any difference at all.

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It's always struck me as odd that abortion is treated as a gendered political issue. Women are as likely to be pro-life as men (an underreported fact that I suspect would surprise most liberals). The issue doesn't divide along gender lines, but along religious lines.

Polling indicates that abortion is not a binary issue within the population as a whole, so it shouldn't really be treated as such. People have a spectrum of views on abortion.

[DownInFlames]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

I don't know, but could this be explained by California being a major point of entry? LAX and SFO are likely the point of entry for many of the international immigrants by air, and San Diego by land. Once immigrants arrive it would be logical that they start to live the American dream where they landed, and then move as they search for opportunities.

Would that show up as international migration into California, but state to state when the same person moves to another state?

Florida and Texas are also top states for international immigrants but they're on the other end of the spectrum for state-to-state migration.


https://www.wikiwand.com/en/List_of_..._net_migration