EV's and Transportation as a Service to kill Alberta economy by 2030?

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Azure

Public transit is good for getting you from a predetermined point A to a predetermined point B, but not very good at getting you to a specific place.

If you combine both public transit with a better last mile service you might have a real winner.

and transit is often not good at getting you there in a reasonable time, or on schedule.

I use transit a lot and the realities of public transit makes me wish I never had to use it.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

and transit is often not good at getting you there in a reasonable time, or on schedule.

I use transit a lot and the realities of public transit makes me wish I never had to use it.

Yeah and I get that. I used to use transit exclusively, then a lot and now a few times a year. It's just plain not as convenient for a lot of reasons. I don't necessarily think that ride-sharing is suddenly going to be on time just because its an autonomous vehicle either. It could be more punctual, but delays will still happen. I think that ride-sharing suffers from some of the same convenience issues.

It's not uncommon that you have things you keep in your car to drop-off or pick-up. Maybe you have hockey or whatever sport after work and don't have time to head home in between or whatever. Now you would lug everything with you to work or wherever? I think that ride-sharing for some things is going to be great and for other things it will not be. For example I know I would want to drive and have my vehicle to do things like groceries.

[WhiteTiger]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

and transit is often not good at getting you there in a reasonable time, or on schedule.

I use transit a lot and the realities of public transit makes me wish I never had to use it.

Oh yes this, big time. I had my car in the shop the other day. To get from my house to my car ended up taking me 2 1/2 hours. I got my car and headed home...and that trip took me 20 minutes.

I don't miss taking transit one little bit.

[Lubicon]

So much of transit convenience depends on where you live and where your destination is. When I worked downtown it was faster (door to door) to take transit than to drive, when I went to university you couldn't beat transit for convenience or speed. Now I'm out in industrial park wasteland and transit sucks despite the fact I am not too far from LRT, and like others have said many times I am not headed home after work and transit fails in that regard too. But generally if you live near a major route and work in employment cluster then transit can be a pretty good option. Just not for everyone.

[CliffFletcher]

Much of Western Europe has high density development, excellent public transportation, and high fuel prices. Cities set up the way people dream parts of Canada will be in 10 or 20 years. But most people still own private vehicles.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Much of Western Europe has high density development, excellent public transportation, and high fuel prices. Cities set up the way people dream parts of Canada will be in 10 or 20 years. But most people still own private vehicles.

Yep, and passenger travel remains dominated by private cars:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statist...r-km)_YB17.png

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Half of new vehicles in 13 years will be electric...because it'll be cheaper

https://www-technologyreview-com.cdn...-electric/amp/

The clock is ticking for Alberta

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

Half of new vehicles in 13 years will be electric...because it'll be cheaper

https://www-technologyreview-com.cdn...-electric/amp/

The clock is ticking for Alberta

Use the force---I mean math

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

Half of new vehicles in 13 years will be electric...because it'll be cheaper

https://www-technologyreview-com.cdn...-electric/amp/

The clock is ticking for Alberta

I like how you don't realize this completely contradicts the original post that started this thread.

[Fire]

"Kevin Libin: The awesome, unstoppable revolutionary electric-car revolution that doesn't actually exist"

http://business.financialpost.com/op...4-8b619c0129f0

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

Half of new vehicles in 13 years will be electric...because it'll be cheaper

https://www-technologyreview-com.cdn...-electric/amp/

The clock is ticking for Alberta

So which is it, the global oil industry will be killed as 60% of all cars are autonomous and electric by 2030, or "more than half of new cars could be electric by 2040?

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Originally Posted by Regorium

So which is it, the global oil industry will be killed as 60% of all cars are autonomous and electric by 2030, or "more than half of new cars could be electric by 2040?

[face palm]

Take your pick...you can't predict the future with certainty you can only observe trends and how they can affect a complex technological and economic system. These are all just educated guesses (at best) and there are a crapton of issues before Alberta will be impacted.

But it WILL be impacted

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

[face palm]

Take your pick...you can't predict the future with certainty you can only observe trends and how they can affect a complex technological and economic system. These are all just educated guesses (at best) and there are a crapton of issues before Alberta will be impacted.

But it WILL be impacted

The two articles that you posted are diametrically opposed to each other.

One is saying that oil will still be a major player in 2040 (btw, 2040 - 2017 = 23 years). The other is saying that oil is "killed off" by 2030.

The first 300 posts in this thread are people saying that a total phase-out of oil by 2030 is completely ridiculous, and you arguing that 2030 timeframe for a complete shutdown of the oil industry is correct. Now you go and post an article that says that oil will still be a major source of energy into 2040.

What the heck is your position? The two articles suggest vastly different reactions from government and individuals.

[zamler]

The electrification of transport is inevitable. The only thing hold it back currently is cost and energy density both of which are steadily dropping. The tipping point will be here in ~10 years. How long it takes to completely replace fuel burners, that's hard to say.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Originally Posted by Regorium

The two articles that you posted are diametrically opposed to each other.

One is saying that oil will still be a major player in 2040 (btw, 2040 - 2017 = 23 years). The other is saying that oil is "killed off" by 2030.

The first 300 posts in this thread are people saying that a total phase-out of oil by 2030 is completely ridiculous, and you arguing that 2030 timeframe for a complete shutdown of the oil industry is correct. Now you go and post an article that says that oil will still be a major source of energy into 2040.

What the heck is your position? The two articles suggest vastly different reactions from government and individuals.

My position? Alberta's economic model is in greater peril than ever before due to shifts in demand for liquid fuels arising from innovation in the transportation sector.

Will it look like the scenario in article 1? Or article 2? How the **** should I know? All I know is that ICE engines are possibly going to be displaced in a significant way soon. And the Canadian market for vehicles doesn't matter much...look at where India and China are going.

Personally I wager article 1 is too hand wavy...but these shifts can happen faster than we can expect. And taking Alberta's economic development dollars and remaining focused upon oil and gas is risky.

That's my position.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

The City of Calgary's take

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Some other interesting research on Calgarian attitudes towards driverless vehicles.

[Flashpoint]

Thats awesome!

[The Yen Man]

Everytime I hear about autonomous, driverless cars, I think of the creepy robot taxi in Total Recall. When do we get the three breasted martian hooker?

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Everytime I hear about autonomous, driverless cars, I think of the creepy robot taxi in Total Recall. When do we get the three breasted martian hooker?

we already have them. only for 1%ers, though.