2020/2021 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

It doesn’t erase the fact they drafted top 10 a few times before they tanked and those assets allowed them to rebuild quickly like EE is stating.

Edmonton tried to pull themselves out of the tank before they drafted McDavid as well it just didn’t work.

If a new GM comes in here and trades Gaudreau and Gio goes to Seattle and this team has a couple of top 10 picks in the next 2 years and they get back to the playoffs is that a rebuild?

They were drafting top 10 out of incompetence, not a plan.

"Drafting top 10" also is not a focused rebuild. They were spending to the cap every year in an attempt to compete, and failing to do so. Kind of like what the Flames are doing now - and when you do that, all you do is continually mortgage the future (like we've done) and never get the opportunity to actually build a contending team.

To the scenario you laid out - No, that is not a rebuild. That's the baseline for competent management. Giordano is a 38 year old on an expiring contract, and Gaudreau is one year away from free agency so you better get something for him if you can't extend him.

"Top 10 picks" is not the base for a good rebuild. That's what we did last time, and look where that got us (absolutely nowhere). We mortgaged the future, we spent to the cap every season, and we built a team not worth maintaining.

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Thing is this is a lot of the teams on that list.

LAK didn't really try to tank. They had signed guys like Roenick, Conroy, etc coming out of the lockout. Traded for Dan Cloutier. Hired Mark Crawford as head coach. They tried to win, sucked, and then really just the Doughty draft year was the year they did "tank"

TBL is similar. They made the playoffs for two seasons coming out of the lockout. They were sucking in 07-08 even though they still had Lecavalier, St. Louis, Richards, and Boyle. They realized they couldn't afford Richards anymore so traded him. But they sucked and got Stamkos.

Same thing in 08-09. They had cap issues so moved out Boyle for a 1st, but flipped that 1st for Andrej Meszaros (not a sign of rebuilding). They still had Lecavalier, St.Louis, and signed Vrbata, Recchi, and Kolzig in the offseason too. But they still sucked again and got Hedman.

None of it was planned, and they didn't tear it all down, they just sucked and were rewarded with Stamkos and Hedman.

Teams that did go scorched earth and truly "Tanked" have had more mixed results. Edmonton(V1), Arizona, Buffalo, Florida didn't work out.

Chicago is probably the most successful case but even that took a stretch of 9 out of 10 years with no playoffs, and they were a bit lucky that Erik Johnson, and Jordan Staal were selected before Toews in his draft year.

Flip Toews and Johnson in that draft and do the Blackhawks even win one cup?

Lots of luck involved in re-building through the draft too. Edmonton got a "Re-do" on their tank by sucking into McDavid. But where are the Oilers right now if Arizona wins the lottery instead of them and they pick 3rd overall?

Yeah, there's a lot of luck in hockey generally - but there is some pretty consistent pieces that win Stanley Cups and they overwhelmingly come from home grown top-3 draft picks.

2020: Stamkos (1st), Hedman (2nd)
2019: Outlier - Pietrangelo (4th)
2018: Ovechkin (1st), Backstrom (4th)
2017: Crosby (1st), Malkin (2nd), Fleury (1st)
2016: Crosby (1st), Malkin (2nd), Fleury (1st)
2015: Kane (1st), Toews (3rd)
2014: Doughty (2nd)
2013: Kane (1st), Toews (3rd)
2012: Doughty (2nd)
2011: Seguin (2nd)
2010: Kane (1st), Toews (3rd)
2009: Crosby (1st), Malkin (2nd), Fleury (1st)
2008: Outlier - (Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Datsyuk)
2007: Outlier (Pronger, Niedermayer, Selanne)
2006: Staal (2nd)

*Introduction of Salary Cap*

2005: No Stanley Cup Champion
2004: Lecavalier (1st)
2003: Niedermayer (3rd)

After you acquire those top three draft picks, you still need to be one of the best managed teams in the league to actually win something. If you're one of the best managed teams in hockey, but don't have those picks, you unfortunately don't win the Stanley Cup. As a base, you need at least one top-3 pick, and you also need to be lucky enough or have planned well enough to actually be bottoming out in a strong draft year...which is why I've been so pro-tank as of late, because 2022 and 2023 are the right years to do it.

Tanking and rebuilding cannot overcome incompetent management though. Although the Oilers are even showing signs they may prove that tanking can overcome incompetence...

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Ottawa and the Rangers both sold off multiple core players in their prime. LA had the smarts to realize they weren’t going to get it done with that roster and traded away a bunch of good players (Muzzin, Martinez, Pearson, Toffoli, Carter) to aid their plunge in the standings.

One of the Flames’ top 2 players over the last 6 years is 37. Giordano’s decline over the last couple seasons is a major factor in the team’s decline. Gio’s age is also probably the biggest reason the team’s management regarded 2017-20 as the team’s window. Without him, the Flames don’t have an NHL top 50 defenceman.

I don’t agree with your assessment of Gio being a reason for the teams decline I think that fits your narrative but simply incorrect. Why have the Flames struggled the last 2 years? They can’t score goals and their top 4 forwards who all scored near ppg in 19 have all had a bit of a step back. Gio has been fantastic since Sutter arrived and the team has a bad record regardless. I think with Hanifin, Andersson and Valimaki this team has solid blue liners moving forward for the next few seasons and hopefully they can add prospects to strengthen that group. Hanifin’s progression is one of the bright takeaways of this season.

LA is in a scenario where their best players are all 30+ and they traded away picks and prospects in the 11-16 seasons to chase cups which they got. The team is old they are rebuilding makes sense.

Who did the Rangers sell off? Can we even use them as an example? They have been gifted 2 lotto wins from outside the bottom 5 and in year 1 of their rebuild they signed a max free agent and traded a 1st+ for Trouba and had Fox force his way there. Anyone that wants to compare their team to the Rangers will not be happy because they get to do things the way they want as the most desirable location in the league.

I am far from convinced Ottawa is going to do anything with their current group. They had their hand forced as well when Karlsson, Stone, Hoffman, Duchene all forcing their way out.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Ottawa and the Rangers both sold off multiple core players in their prime. LA had the smarts to realize they weren’t going to get it done with that roster and traded away a bunch of good players (Muzzin, Martinez, Pearson, Toffoli, Carter) to aid their plunge in the standings.

One of the Flames’ top 2 players over the last 6 years is 37. Giordano’s decline over the last couple seasons is a major factor in the team’s decline. Gio’s age is also probably the biggest reason the team’s management regarded 2017-20 as the team’s window. Without him, the Flames don’t have an NHL top 50 defenceman.

Philadelphia and the Islanders did it at least part way. Sometimes you need to cut your losses before your assets are worthless. If it’s not going to work, there is no point in waiting. It’s not too often drafts like the next 2 come around back to back.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

They were drafting top 10 out of incompetence, not a plan.

"Drafting top 10" also is not a focused rebuild. They were spending to the cap every year in an attempt to compete, and failing to do so. Kind of like what the Flames are doing now - and when you do that, all you do is continually mortgage the future (like we've done) and never get the opportunity to actually build a contending team.

To the scenario you laid out - No, that is not a rebuild. That's the baseline for competent management. Giordano is a 38 year old on an expiring contract, and Gaudreau is one year away from free agency so you better get something for him if you can't extend him.

"Top 10 picks" is not the base for a good rebuild. That's what we did last time, and look where that got us (absolutely nowhere). We mortgaged the future, we spent to the cap every season, and we built a team not worth maintaining.
.

I am confused sorry. The 5th pick the Leafs got for tanking to draft for Marner is different than the 5th overall pick they earned for trying to win in 2012 and drafting Rielly?

Is it just telling fans you plan to suck instead of telling them you want to win?

The Leafs gave Burke the ability to rebuild the team and he drafted Schenn 5th, Kadri 7th and traded his next 2 1st for a guy picked 5th 3 years before the deal and that is where it went off the rails but what other moves were made to mortgage their future?

All they did when Shanahan came in was trade Kessel for futures which didn’t get them much, and then dump Phaneuf. In 2015 they pick Marner and got lucky in 16 and picked Matthews.

I don’t see how that is different than the Flames letting Gio go to Seattle, trade Gaudreau, tank for 2 years and hopefully draft High next year and luck into Bedard the following year. But that is not a rebuild? But what the Leafs did in 14-16 is considered a quick rebuild?

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Yeah, there's a lot of luck in hockey generally - but there is some pretty consistent pieces that win Stanley Cups and they overwhelmingly come from home grown top-3 draft picks.

2020: Stamkos (1st), Hedman (2nd)
2019: Outlier - Pietrangelo (4th)
2018: Ovechkin (1st), Backstrom (4th)
2017: Crosby (1st), Malkin (2nd), Fleury (1st)
2016: Crosby (1st), Malkin (2nd), Fleury (1st)
2015: Kane (1st), Toews (3rd)
2014: Doughty (2nd)
2013: Kane (1st), Toews (3rd)
2012: Doughty (2nd)
2011: Seguin (2nd)
2010: Kane (1st), Toews (3rd)
2009: Crosby (1st), Malkin (2nd), Fleury (1st)
2008: Outlier - (Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Datsyuk)
2007: Outlier (Pronger, Niedermayer, Selanne)
2006: Staal (2nd)

*Introduction of Salary Cap*

2005: No Stanley Cup Champion
2004: Lecavalier (1st)
2003: Niedermayer (3rd)

After you acquire those top three draft picks, you still need to be one of the best managed teams in the league to actually win something. If you're one of the best managed teams in hockey, but don't have those picks, you unfortunately don't win the Stanley Cup. As a basis, you need at least one top-3 pick, and you also need to be lucky enough or have planned well enough to actually be bottoming out in a strong draft year...which is why I've been so pro-tank as of late, because 2022 and 2023 are the right years to do it.

Tanking and rebuilding cannot overcome incompetent management though. Although the Oilers are even showing signs they may prove that tanking can overcome incompetence...

Do you think this fanbase would be patient enough to wait 14 years after drafting 1st to win the cup with that player? Tampa waited 12-13 years after their high picks to win the cup and Stamkos played 1 game. Their best forwards are 2nd and 3rd round picks from 11 and 14.

Based on the patience of this fanbase (look at the Tkachuk hate right now) I don’t see how anyone will have the patience they claim to have now. Edmonton is not proving tanking overcomes incompetence they got lucky to get a player that comes around once in a decade.

Let’s not give Edmonton or Toronto too much credit here neither team has done anything yet

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Do you think this fanbase would be patient enough to wait 14 years after drafting 1st to win the cup with that player? Tampa waited 12-13 years after their high picks to win the cup and Stamkos played 1 game. Their best forwards are 2nd and 3rd round picks from 11 and 14.

Based on the patience of this fanbase (look at the Tkachuk hate right now) I don’t see how anyone will have the patience they claim to have now. Edmonton is not proving tanking overcomes incompetence they got lucky to get a player that comes around once in a decade.

Let’s not give Edmonton or Toronto too much credit here neither team has done anything yet

…what’s the alternative? Continue down the same path that we’ve been on for 30 years?

The 2022 and 2023 drafts have Crosby/McDavid/Ovechkin level prospects, so it’s the best opportunity to change course and try something new, I’d say.

Clearly what this organization has done doesn’t work.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Do you think this fanbase would be patient enough... Tampa waited 12-13 years after their high picks to win the cup and Stamkos played 1 game. Their best forwards are 2nd and 3rd round picks from 11 and 14.

Tampa has 4 conference finals, 2 cups and one finals loss since 2004. I think we'd be ecstatic.

(Everything but the first cup win since Stamkos was drafted)

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

…what’s the alternative? Continue down the same path that we’ve been on for 30 years?

The 2022 and 2023 drafts have Crosby/McDavid/Ovechkin level prospects, so it’s the best opportunity to change course and try something new, I’d say.

Clearly what this organization has done doesn’t work.

If those players are truly that caliber then I guess it would be worth the shot but a lot of luck is still required to get even one. I didn’t realize one or both of these guys are the level of McDavid or Crosby.

That is just not going to be what will happen. With Darryl Sutter here I think they intend to contend for the next 2 years. I do think there is a legit chance they go all out after Eichel in an attempt to make a tangible change to add a player of desperate need. In that scenario I think there would be a desire to ensure Gaudreau is extended and I could even see them justifying paying a small price to keep Gio if they land Eichel.

If Eichel is not an option I think they will pursue the path of making changes like potentially allowing Seattle to select Gio and trading Johnny in a hockey deal while retooling around a team of veterans that will play Sutter’s style to a tee and grind their way into a playoff battle.

If you look at the current Pacific division the Flames would be able to finish top 3 by going 3-1

I think a rebuild is around the corner I just do not think the organization will jump into one. I do not disagree with you that it is likely a mistake.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Do you think this fanbase would be patient enough to wait 14 years after drafting 1st to win the cup with that player? Tampa waited 12-13 years after their high picks to win the cup and Stamkos played 1 game. Their best forwards are 2nd and 3rd round picks from 11 and 14.

Based on the patience of this fanbase (look at the Tkachuk hate right now) I don’t see how anyone will have the patience they claim to have now. Edmonton is not proving tanking overcomes incompetence they got lucky to get a player that comes around once in a decade.

Let’s not give Edmonton or Toronto too much credit here neither team has done anything yet

Is Edmonton’s fan base that much better that they can handle it? Sad if true.

If fans can handle the last 30 years of little excitement and a plethora of 1st round busts, I would hope they could support a rebuild that would at least bring hope

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Who did the Rangers sell off?

McDonagh (28)
J.T. Miller (25)
Spooner (26)
Zuccarello (30)
Hayes (26)

A bunch of very good players in their prime. When Lundquist declined, the Rangers recognized their window to win the Cup had closed. They still had a pretty good team. A playoff team, even (the Rangers made the playoffs as a wildcard team in 2016-17, the season before McDonagh and Miller were traded). But they knew the window was closed so the rebuild was on.

And you’re right that the Rangers situation is pretty unique. But the basic facts remain: they had a good - but not great - team and they traded away a bunch of prime age players to restock and put themselves in a position to nab the #2 OA and #1 OA picks in successive drafts. Yeah, they won the lottery. But I’ll take a 25 per or 30 cent of drafting a superstar in the next few drafts over the purgatory of the last 15 years.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Spooner wasn't a sell off - moreof a change of scenery type of trade which netted them Strome (ha ha stupid oilers).

Mainly making that point so I could point out how bad a deal that was for the Oilers, not to disagree with your overall point.

The Rangers were also very up front with their fan base that they were re-building.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

If those players are truly that caliber then I guess it would be worth the shot but a lot of luck is still required to get even one. I didn’t realize one or both of these guys are the level of McDavid or Crosby.

That is just not going to be what will happen. With Darryl Sutter here I think they intend to contend for the next 2 years. I do think there is a legit chance they go all out after Eichel in an attempt to make a tangible change to add a player of desperate need. In that scenario I think there would be a desire to ensure Gaudreau is extended and I could even see them justifying paying a small price to keep Gio if they land Eichel.

If Eichel is not an option I think they will pursue the path of making changes like potentially allowing Seattle to select Gio and trading Johnny in a hockey deal while retooling around a team of veterans that will play Sutter’s style to a tee and grind their way into a playoff battle.

If you look at the current Pacific division the Flames would be able to finish top 3 by going 3-1

I think a rebuild is around the corner I just do not think the organization will jump into one. I do not disagree with you that it is likely a mistake.

Yeah, I don’t think the rebuild/tank will happen either, as this organization just isn’t that well run.

I imagine they’ll continue down this path of trying to win with a roster incapable of doing so with any meaningful consistency. Perhaps a “hockey trade” with Gaudreau with diminishing returns, and a silly deal with Seattle to protect Giordano because of course we would.

[Sandman]

If Murray Edwards wants a winner that bad, he should shell out some bribe money to win a Draft Lottery or two-you know, the way Katz did it for the Oil. Lol

[bigrangy]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

McDonagh (28)
J.T. Miller (25)
Spooner (26)
Zuccarello (30)
Hayes (26)

A bunch of very good players in their prime. When Lundquist declined, the Rangers recognized their window to win the Cup had closed. They still had a pretty good team. A playoff team, even (the Rangers made the playoffs as a wildcard team in 2016-17, the season before McDonagh and Miller were traded). But they knew the window was closed so the rebuild was on.

And you’re right that the Rangers situation is pretty unique. But the basic facts remain: they had a good - but not great - team and they traded away a bunch of prime age players to restock and put themselves in a position to nab the #2 OA and #1 OA picks in successive drafts. Yeah, they won the lottery. But I’ll take a 25 per or 30 cent of drafting a superstar in the next few drafts over the purgatory of the last 15 years.

The Rangers aren’t good because they won lotteries. They’re trending up because they signed two major trophy contenders for nothing as free agents and traded a guy who I don’t even know if he’s still in the league 3 years later for a #1C.

The lottery luck was just a bonus there.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

The Rangers aren’t good because they won lotteries. They’re trending up because they signed two major trophy contenders for nothing as free agents and traded a guy who I don’t even know if he’s still in the league 3 years later for a #1C.

The lottery luck was just a bonus there.

Yep, Rangers are probably the easiest team in the NHL to be a GM of...with Vegas and a couple others

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by chedder

Tampa has 4 conference finals, 2 cups and one finals loss since 2004. I think we'd be ecstatic.

(Everything but the first cup win since Stamkos was drafted)

And the first doesn’t count.

#itwasin

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

The Rangers aren’t good because they won lotteries. They’re trending up because they signed two major trophy contenders for nothing as free agents and traded a guy who I don’t even know if he’s still in the league 3 years later for a #1C.

The lottery luck was just a bonus there.

The also aren't good

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by sandman

if murray edwards wants a winner that bad, he should shell out some bribe money to win a draft lottery or four-you know, the way katz did it for the oil. Lol

fyp

[SmoggyFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Sandman

If Murray Edwards wants a winner that bad, he should shell out some bribe money to win a Draft Lottery or two-you know, the way Katz did it for the Oil. Lol

Murray Edwards only cares about profitability, not competitiveness. He's a mogul, not a hockey guy.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

The Rangers aren’t good because they won lotteries. They’re trending up because they signed two major trophy contenders for nothing as free agents and traded a guy who I don’t even know if he’s still in the league 3 years later for a #1C.

The lottery luck was just a bonus there.

They also had an A-level prospect manipulate the system into playing for their team. That A-level prospect is now a Norris candidate level player at 23 years old. There were a number of things that happened to the Rangers to expedite their rebuild. A rebuild in Calgary would be very different, I would suggest.