Tkachuk: Matthews deal 'definitely set the bar'

[LWcrowfoot]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

How do you figure?

Laine is established as probably the best pure goal scorer in the group, other than, arguably, Matthews. In his first two seasons he's scored at a 41 and 44 goal pace respectively. If not for his recent slump he's probably up there near the top tier at the 11+M price point, if slightly below it on account of being a winger. Even with that slump he's still on pace for 39, but will mostly be paid based on his body of work over 3 years rather than this season..

You can't discredit the slump though. Laine has four goals in his past 29 games. On pace for 39 goals and 54 points still but that pace slows as each games passes. He's looked TERRIBLE the past 2 1/2 months.

Yes you have to factor in the previous two seasons but if Tkachuk's production keeps increasing through those three seasons and Laine's dips in the last that's going to play into it.

When Laine isn't scoring he's invisible like he is now. Tkachuk still brings a physical element, a decent two-way game for his young age and leadership. Those things are factored in during negotiations. Honestly they're probably a lot closer than some people would like to believe.

Laine might've gotten off the plane first, pushing and shoving his way to the front. Meanwhile Tkachuk formed an orderly queue and both are meeting at baggage at the same time.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by LWcrowfoot

Laine might've gotten off the plane first, pushing and shoving his way to the front. Meanwhile Tkachuk formed an orderly queue and both are meeting at baggage at the same time.

Liked for the cross-thread reference.

[Darth Tkachuk]

Originally Posted by New Era

Yeah, he really is. Matt is a good player and all, but Matthews can take games over in ways Tkachuk just can't. Matthews has a superior game in every way with the exception of stirring the crap.

Tkachuk has 57 points in 53 games, and is +12. Matthews has 47 points in 39 games, and is +2. Tkachuk usually plays a shutdown roll, is an absolute pain in the ass, has a better +/-, and seems to stay healthier than Matthews. So tell me again why Tkachuk is worth 3 million less a year than Matthews. It's an argument that just doesn't hold water.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Darth Tkachuk

Tkachuk has 57 points in 53 games, and is +12. Matthews has 47 points in 39 games, and is +2. Tkachuk usually plays a shutdown roll, is an absolute pain in the ass, has a better +/-, and seems to stay healthier than Matthews. So tell me again why Tkachuk is worth 3 million less a year than Matthews. It's an argument that just doesn't hold water.

Tkachuk has one more even-strength point in fourteen additional games.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Darth Tkachuk

Tkachuk has 57 points in 53 games, and is +12. Matthews has 47 points in 39 games, and is +2. Tkachuk usually plays a shutdown roll, is an absolute pain in the ass, has a better +/-, and seems to stay healthier than Matthews. So tell me again why Tkachuk is worth 3 million less a year than Matthews. It's an argument that just doesn't hold water.

Well, your stats make Matthews 1.2 ppg and Tkachuk 1.07 ppg. And over their career the difference is even bigger. Tkachuk is .78 and Matthews is .99. And then there's the difference in position and, I suspect, the GMs view their ceilings differently. Matthews also scores way more goals and goals are better than assists generally.

[Yoho]

If I'm Flames I let Winnipeg sign Laine first before we signing Tkachuk.

[Darth Tkachuk]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, your stats make Matthews 1.2 ppg and Tkachuk 1.07 ppg. And over their career the difference is even bigger. Tkachuk is .78 and Matthews is .99. And then there's the difference in position and, I suspect, the GMs view their ceilings differently. Matthews also scores way more goals and goals are better than assists generally.

Not to mention Tkachuk has better position stats than Mathews. Again, you're still not making a very sound argument.

[Matty81]

Defensive skills don't usually earn very much in contract negotiations relative to offence. Tkachuk has been great this year all around but over the last 3 doesn't have the offensive track record of Laine or Matthews. I think he'll make way more money than we all expected last summer but not in the Matthews stratosphere but maybe I am just wishful thinking. For me if the ask is over 10 and they play hardball I'd trade him for the right offer, and I love the way he plays. I don't know if his value will ever be higher.



My opinion is that he's a great player but almost 40% of his points came on the powerplay with Gaudreau and Monahan and those guys face way tougher even strength matchups on the road. He's also a little slow footspeed wise and everybody on the flames is having career years, for me this may be a Phaneuf situation where his peak production is occurring in the wrong season for the team.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, your stats make Matthews 1.2 ppg and Tkachuk 1.07 ppg. And over their career the difference is even bigger. Tkachuk is .78 and Matthews is .99. And then there's the difference in position and, I suspect, the GMs view their ceilings differently. Matthews also scores way more goals and goals are better than assists generally.

And Matthews is much better at creating 5v5 which is a far more important and predictable metric.


I love Tkachuk, but Matthews is a fair bit more important player in general

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by LWcrowfoot

Tine might've gotten off the plane first, pushing and shoving his way to the front. Meanwhile Tkachuk formed an orderly queue and both are meeting at baggage at the same time.

Come on, of the two of them, Tkachuk is clearly the guy pushing past everyone.

As far as the comparative assessments of player ability and value to their respective teams, there are some good arguments to be made there. But we're talking about contracts, and points - especially goals - are what get people paid coming off their ELCs, in conjunction with star power and draft pedigree. I really doubt that Tkachuk's deal ends up being as high as Laine's.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Fire

Which teams are able to and are legitimate threats of making an offer sheet?

Ken Holland has mused about it. The problem with the Wings is they're just getting started with a rebuild, and giving up multiple firsts would cut if off at the ankles.

I could see the Knights taking a shot. They have loads of picks and prospects and can afford to give up some picks.

The Flyers seem to be getting impatient. Ditto for the Panthers.

As for the targets, there's no point making an offer that the team will have no trouble matching. So the Flames, Avs, Canucks, and Hurricanes are safe. The Leafs, Jets, and Lightning, however, are vulnerable.

So I could see the Wings taking a run at Connor. Or the Flyers at Marner.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by joejoe3

UFA Gaudreau to Philly
UFA Tkachuk to St.Louis

Goodbye Core.

Even if it was a guarantee that both would walk in UFA, I’d almost always take 5x$7M type deals for stars like this over 8x$10M. 5 years is a long time and I’d way rather have that extra $6M available to really go for it than play it safer (i.e. be relatively more mediocre) worrying about 6 years into the future.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Come on, of the two of them, Tkachuk is clearly the guy pushing past everyone.

Accidentally. He was totally pushed by a guy behind him and fell into everyone else super awkwardly, and is having trouble getting back up for some reason.

[ST20]

Originally Posted by Darth Tkachuk

Not to mention Tkachuk has better position stats than Mathews. Again, you're still not making a very sound argument.

He gave you numbers and stats... What more do you want?

As Matty mentioned defensive numbers rarely move the needle when it comes to contract negotiations. A lot of defensive numbers are based on your team line mates while offence is more easily measured (and yes also based on your line mates but easier to separate).

Are you really wanting Tkachuk to get paid as much as Matthews? That is not a good thing for the flames...

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Ken Holland has mused about it. The problem with the Wings is they're just getting started with a rebuild, and giving up multiple firsts would cut if off at the ankles.

I could see the Knights taking a shot. They have loads of picks and prospects and can afford to give up some picks.

The Flyers seem to be getting impatient. Ditto for the Panthers.

As for the targets, there's no point making an offer that the team will have no trouble matching. So the Flames, Avs, Canucks, and Hurricanes are safe. The Leafs, Jets, and Lightning, however, are vulnerable.

So I could see the Wings taking a run at Connor. Or the Flyers at Marner.

The rangers and wings are the two biggest offersheet threats.

Both have accumulated assets. both will have accumulated assets prior to submitting an offersheet.

If there is acrimony between the rangers and flames in regards to the hamilton/adam fox negotiations, I would not bet against Gorton using an offersheet on a prominent, american born player.

[442scotty]

Chucky is really gonna have to crank up his game if he wants more than 7.0

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Come on, of the two of them, Tkachuk is clearly the guy pushing past everyone...

I don't think you correctly understand the analogy. Either that, or you are attempting a bad joke.

[Darth Tkachuk]

Originally Posted by ST20

He gave you numbers and stats... What more do you want?

As Matty mentioned defensive numbers rarely move the needle when it comes to contract negotiations. A lot of defensive numbers are based on your team line mates while offence is more easily measured (and yes also based on your line mates but easier to separate).

Are you really wanting Tkachuk to get paid as much as Matthews? That is not a good thing for the flames...

What I want, and what happens will ultimately be totally different. I gave stats too. The point I'm making is that Mathews is clearly not 3 million dollars a year better than Tkachuk. A fact Tkachuk and his agent are likely to press. I'm not saying Tkachuk is getting 11 a year, I'm saying he's getting at least 9 (hence the 3 million discrepancy I reference). You seem to feel Matthews is worth 3 million more a year, based on the few metrics Matthews has on his side in the comparison. I feel the stats show that simply isn't the case. Indeed, I think anyone that thinks Tkachuk is worth 3 million less a year than Matthews are dilusuonal. And, as I said, if BT can get Tkachuk under 9, he's a wizard. But I'm not holding my breath.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

....
I have no idea what he's like. if he's a "just want a chance to win" type of guy or a "I know this is a business and I have to look out for myself" kind of guy.

I expect he's both.
Not mutually exclusive

[Imported_Aussie]

Tkachuk is in an interesting place within the RFAs. As has been mentioned by others, his best recent comparable is Pastrnak, who signed a team friendly deal by going 6 years vs Draisatl's 8 years.
But the market has shifted, and it will be interesting to see more datapoints.

Even before the 5 year deal to Matthews, i don't think an 8 year deal was realistic. Treliving signed ONE deal that was 7 years - Monahan - and nothing longer. As good as Tkachuk is, centres always attract a premium IMO, in cost and term(good to note in the cap hit speculation vs Matthews as well)

I think the thought of the Gio cap may need to go, but a possibility would be using the same cap % (9.25% of cap, or 7.6775). Even then, a 6 year, $46M ($7.6M AAV) which I think is a reasonable deal, may seem like "wizardry" if more deals line up like Matthews'. Nylander may have made that price point a challenge.

The other factor on term is how contracts line up:
Kylington, Andersson, Brodie and Hamonic in +1 year
Gaudreau and Gio in +3 years
Monahan and Neal in +4 years
Lindholm, Hanifin and Backlund in +5 years
No one in +6 years

Veterans coming off the books as younger core needs new deals

With that framework in mind, while a 3 year bridge for a guy producing like Tkachuk with his pedigree is unprecedented, it fits that structure.
4 makes no sense, as it is straight to UFA.
5 would mean setting a potential retool moment in 4-5 years
6 or more means buying UFA years now to keep Tkachuk as the locked in piece of the next core (with more to come)

While I had thought a 3 year bridge made no sense, that could be the fallback compromise if negotiations get stalled. It could also be a way to avoid a silly cap hit, and then Tkachuk is set up to be paid in his prime and still have time for another long UFA contract while still in prime years (injury permitting). E.g. 3 year ELC, 3 year bridge, 6-7 year contract, 6 year contract

I think 5 or 6 years makes a lot of sense for both parties, but now everything is back on the table