Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[Table 5]

Nuts to meme stocks, oil has been best performer in my portfolio so far in 2021. Keep it coming!

Obviously more risky and will probably take time, but if oil can sustain itself, there is still crazy asymmetry in Tankers/Offshore to be had. ie. TDW, CGG.PA, MRM.AX, TNK, STNG, DHT.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Where can a guy buy a couple seadoos around here?

Well, you've got Sleighs for Waves, that's on 3rd. Shreds Sleds, also on 3rd. Water Wagons, again, on 3rd. As a matter fo fact, they are all in the Seadoo District over on 3rd.

/sorry, it's been awhile.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Looch City

I swear, this time I've learned from my past mistakes and won't take $100 oil for granted!

Remember when Gas was 50 cents a litre...in 2020?

That was wild.

[Kybosh]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Nuts to meme stocks, oil has been best performer in my portfolio so far in 2021. Keep it coming!

Obviously more risky and will probably take time, but if oil can sustain itself, there is still crazy asymmetry in Tankers/Offshore to be had. ie. TDW, CGG.PA, MRM.AX, TNK, STNG, DHT.

Ditto!

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Where can a guy buy a couple seadoos around here?

You're too late - this year's production run is already sold out. If you want a snowmobile you might be able to get it by next winter if you order now.

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by nik-

f that, lift kit for the Dodge Ram already ordered.

This made me chuckle, only because it's so true. I work in mines all over North America, and it's pretty hilarious watching this happen. At least the strip clubs in Ft Mac have blinds......Val D'or still uses blankets. Still plenty of parking spaces for the lifted 2021 1 ton GMC trucks though.

$100 oil is coming boys. Forget double meat, buy a platter! And an RV, a boat, and make sure it's all financed.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Locke

Remember when Gas was 50 cents a litre...in 2020?

That was wild.

I remember that. The industry was on life support and many companies fighting for survival and some did not make it. Cheap gas was nice but 2020 was the most stressful year in my > 30 years in the industry. Hoping we never see another year like it. 2021 will be a challenge to for other reasons, and some of the same reasons.

[Torture]

I don't necessarily think that oil prices rising is going to bring back the boom times. Investment capital has fled, and over the long term, prospects for growth in O&G aren't looking as good. If you're looking at a project that has a 30 year lifespan, how confident are you that O&G is going to continue to be worth $100 over the long run? If you are investing in O&G, would you invest that in an oil sands project with a 30 year lifespan or the more nimble fracking in the US that has a much smaller lead time and quicker return on investment?

A lot of companies have found efficiencies and won't be in a hurry to replace jobs that were cut. Existing projects will be way more profitable, balance sheets will look better, investors will be happy, and the provincial budget will look better in the short term, but personally I wouldn't bet on a bunch of new mega projects and the same number of jobs as in the boom times unless something drastically changes.

Oddly enough, $100 oil would actually encourage more green investment as it makes the cost differential between developing technologies and O&G a lot smaller. (Same as how high gas prices encourage the use of electric vehicles)

Is it good news for Alberta that oil prices are going up? Yes, but I don't think it means everyone will be going back to double meat and lift kits and Calgary's office towers will be full. The world has changed since the last oil boom.

[indes]

100$ oil will be good for the corporations but I'm not sure Canadians see the benefit. Oil had pretty much been booming everywhere in the world except Canada before 2020.

It will just be another boom for the US and the middle East.

[Roof-Daddy]

I'd rather oil stay at $50-70 for an extended period. $100 oil will just make the inevitable crash hurt that much more.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Torture

I don't necessarily think that oil prices rising is going to bring back the boom times. Investment capital has fled, and over the long term, prospects for growth in O&G aren't looking as good. If you're looking at a project that has a 30 year lifespan, how confident are you that O&G is going to continue to be worth $100 over the long run? If you are investing in O&G, would you invest that in an oil sands project with a 30 year lifespan or the more nimble fracking in the US that has a much smaller lead time and quicker return on investment?

A lot of companies have found efficiencies and won't be in a hurry to replace jobs that were cut. Existing projects will be way more profitable, balance sheets will look better, investors will be happy, and the provincial budget will look better in the short term, but personally I wouldn't bet on a bunch of new mega projects and the same number of jobs as in the boom times unless something drastically changes.

Oddly enough, $100 oil would actually encourage more green investment as it makes the cost differential between developing technologies and O&G a lot smaller. (Same as how high gas prices encourage the use of electric vehicles)

Is it good news for Alberta that oil prices are going up? Yes, but I don't think it means everyone will be going back to double meat and lift kits and Calgary's office towers will be full. The world has changed since the last oil boom.

Maybe not mega-projects, but if oil gets anywhere near $100 you'll start to see significant conventional oil drilling. Some of those projects are pretty short cycle, and the payback at $100 oil would be very fast. That would get a lot of folks working both in the field and the city again.

I agree megaprojects with a 3-4 year lead time and a 30 year flat production profile won't come back until the industry is confident higher prices will be sustained for a long time. And once that confidence is back that's probably a bad sign for oil prices...

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Maybe not mega-projects, but if oil gets anywhere near $100 you'll start to see significant conventional oil drilling. Some of those projects are pretty short cycle, and the payback at $100 oil would be very fast. That would get a lot of folks working both in the field and the city again.

I agree megaprojects with a 3-4 year lead time and a 30 year flat production profile won't come back until the industry is confident higher prices will be sustained for a long time. And once that confidence is back that's probably a bad sign for oil prices...

For sure this is where we will see the quickest change, it's already happening to an extent. One of our customers just upped their budget by ~$25 million meaning another 40 or so wells added to their 2021 program. The challenge will be when Operators try to execute their increased programs and find the service industry has been hollowed out so much there is no capacity to do so - at least not quickly.

The Clearwater play is hot right now because drilling is cheap and completion costs are practically nil. Move the drilling rig off, move a service rig on and run pumps and you are producing literally within a couple of weeks after TD, on a well that only takes 7 or 8 days to drill. That's almost instant cashflow.

[Suave]

I agree, $100 oil is not good for anyone long term. It fast tracks a bubble, causes cost inflation and makes alternatives cheaper. I would be very happy with sustained, stable pricing in the $60 range.

As far as outlook for Alberta this year. Looks like it should be slow and steady growth if oil stays at $60, and gas above $2. Most of the majors are under guidance from shareholders to not increase production; Debt, share buyback and dividends are the priority. So most increases in activity should be drill to fill. This will hopefully give time for the service industry to catchup to increased activity level, instead of everyone trying to ramp up at the same time.

[Mayo]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Where can a guy buy a couple seadoos around here?

Originally Posted by bizaro86

You're too late - this year's production run is already sold out. If you want a snowmobile you might be able to get it by next winter if you order now.

I had a pair of seadoo sparks and sold them in July for almost what I paid for them in 2015

Flipped the money into CNQ @ $24

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

I think high skilled jobs will come back, but forget the days of floors of people in tactical functions like basic accounting. Those are all well on way to full automation. For example, 15 years ago paying persons to 3 way match invoices all day is over.

Our old-school accounting ladies have all been slowly weeded out by the new nerdy kid who has introduced business intelligence and automation. Other groups like facilities don't really exist anymore either with records rooms disappearing and everybody learning to move their own furniture.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I'd rather oil stay at $50-70 for an extended period. $100 oil will just make the inevitable crash hurt that much more.

Yup, I'm happy with $60-$65 Oil and just hold there.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Suave

I agree, $100 oil is not good for anyone long term. It fast tracks a bubble, causes cost inflation and makes alternatives cheaper. I would be very happy with sustained, stable pricing in the $60 range.

As far as outlook for Alberta this year. Looks like it should be slow and steady growth if oil stays at $60, and gas above $2. Most of the majors are under guidance from shareholders to not increase production; Debt, share buyback and dividends are the priority. So most increases in activity should be drill to fill. This will hopefully give time for the service industry to catchup to increased activity level, instead of everyone trying to ramp up at the same time.

So basically a healthy, mature and profitable O&G industry with decent royalties but not a huge employment growth engine.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

Our old-school accounting ladies have all been slowly weeded out by the new nerdy kid who has introduced business intelligence and automation. Other groups like facilities don't really exist anymore either with records rooms disappearing and everybody learning to move their own furniture.

Sadly, that change has been going on for decades. When I started as a summer student at a major in the late 80s, departments like shipping and receiving, the mailroom, stationary, reprographics, and records accounted for a hefty proportion of the head-count, and were staffed with working-class and middle-class Calgarians who enjoyed full benefits. In the 90s most of those positions were outsourced to temp companies. Now it’s the turn of payroll, data processing, and IT to be dropped, automated, or outsourced.

As it becomes the domain of small numbers of highly paid workers, we’ll likely see the popular support and identification with the energy industry decline further in this city.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Sadly, that change has been going on for decades. When I started as a summer student at a major in the late 80s, departments like shipping and receiving, the mailroom, stationary, reprographics, and records accounted for a hefty proportion of the head-count, and were staffed with working-class and middle-class Calgarians who enjoyed full benefits. In the 90s most of those positions were outsourced to temp companies. Now it’s the turn of payroll, data processing, and IT to be dropped, automated, or outsourced.

As it becomes the domain of small numbers of highly skilled workers, we’ll likely see the popular support and identification with the energy industry decline further in this city.

All very true, but I have a hard time believing that it is any different in non-energy industries. All job growth in the future will need to be focused differently than what was done in the past.

[CaptainCrunch]

Make sure that you fill up with gas before the end of the month.


With the shipping issues and the tanker issues gas should increase.


The Carbon tax increase hits on the 1st so gas could go up by 3.5 cents a liter. The conversion to Summer gas in 18 days which could add another 4 cents