Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by polak

Whats with all the hype about the US being a net exporter of Oil then? If Trump is as protectionist as everyone is saying, shouldn't we expect tariffs on Oil so that the US uses its own product?

They are still a net importer, even if they fracked to the max they wouldn't cover their consumption. I expect a push to make North America energy independent more than the US alone.

[polak]

Ah so I just heard wrong? Well that's a bit of a relief....

(yeah should've just googled it, I think what I heard was they now produce as much as they import)

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by polak

Ah so I just heard wrong? Well that's a bit of a relief....

(yeah should've just googled it, I think what I heard was they now produce as much as they import)

Check out BP's report on energy. Gives a good breakdown on major countries and their consumption / production.

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pd...ull-report.pdf

U.S. produced 12.7 mmbbl/d of oil in 2015, and consumed 19.4 mmbbl/d.

Canada produced 4.4 mmbbl/d, and consumed 2.3 mmbbl/d. It isn't perfect to assume that the excess was entirely sent to the U.S., but it is close enough for rough figures.

[Azure]

How much more would be consume if we could send Alberta oil east?

[burn_this_city]

Without refinery retrofits for heavy oil only a few hundred thousand barrels a day. Irving already stated they would continue to import light oil from the middle east.

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by Azure

How much more would be consume if we could send Alberta oil east?

Rough proxy would be the displacement of imported oil to east coast refineries (Irving, etc.).

http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrc...ap-Large-E.gif

Looks like approximately 800 mmbbl/d if you consider all refineries in Quebec and parts East.

edit: and that isn't considering retrofits needed per above post.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Without refinery retrofits for heavy oil only a few hundred thousand barrels a day. Irving already stated they would continue to import light oil from the middle east.

The Gulf Coast refineries have made those changes already in anticipation of Canadian heavy being made available to them. Texas is a very strong supporter of this getting approved.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Without refinery retrofits for heavy oil only a few hundred thousand barrels a day. Irving already stated they would continue to import light oil from the middle east.

If Irving can get a better price and lower cost from tankering from the Middle East than piping from Alberta you really can't blame them. No incentive to buy Albertan oil except Alberta selling it low which really doesn't help the industry at all.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

The Gulf Coast refineries have made those changes already in anticipation of Canadian heavy being made available to them. Texas is a very strong supporter of this getting approved.

This is precisely why I don't think Trump will slap tariffs on our crude if KXL gets built. They put in the pots and pans back when peak oil was a thing and the expectation was Canadian heavy oil would fill the gap.

[MacDaddy77]

With Trump being a major shareholder of Transcanada you have to think that bodes well for keystone XL. Republicans already want it and put it before Obama who vetoed it.

Doubt Trump will go against his own party and his accountant!

[Locke]

Originally Posted by MacDaddy77

With Trump being a major shareholder of Transcanada you have to think that bodes well for keystone XL. Republicans already want it and put it before Obama who vetoed it.

Doubt Trump will go against his own party and his accountant!

Actually, this is interesting.

My understanding, and I admit it may be flawed, is that once elected to Public office the POTUS has to eliminate all of his private holdings.

Now this just means that his son buys Trumpco or whatever the hell the conglomerate holding company is called for $1, but still.

[Locke]

On top of which, hes allegedly in the middle of several lawsuits, I wonder what happens with those. Those companies may no longer technically be The Donald's, but who is going to continue suing the President or the President's holdings?

[MacDaddy77]

Doesn't look like there's a law mandating that. Someone else may have better info but heres an article

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/pol...oKL/story.html

Donald Trump could become president of the United States and still keep his day job as chairman of the Trump Organization and impresario of all things Trump-branded. He could even promote policies that advance his business interests.

[stampsx2]

Originally Posted by belsarius

If Irving can get a better price and lower cost from tankering from the Middle East than piping from Alberta you really can't blame them. No incentive to buy Albertan oil except Alberta selling it low which really doesn't help the industry at all.

Because middle eastern oil is "dirty oil". No environmental standards on production like Canada or human rights. Some of the money from oil sales could slip through and fund terrorism.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by MacDaddy77

Doesn't look like there's a law mandating that. Someone else may have better info but heres an article

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/pol...oKL/story.html

Donald Trump could become president of the United States and still keep his day job as chairman of the Trump Organization and impresario of all things Trump-branded. He could even promote policies that advance his business interests.

On CBC last night David Frum predicted Trump would open resorts all over Russia, China, Malaysia, etc. during his presidency, exposing him to influence from autocratic regimes.

[Weitz]

Yah I thought I heard on ABC that if you are President conflict of interest doesn't apply.

[stampsx2]

Originally Posted by MacDaddy77

With Trump being a major shareholder of Transcanada you have to think that bodes well for keystone XL. Republicans already want it and put it before Obama who vetoed it.

Doubt Trump will go against his own party and his accountant!

If he's invested in it you have to think he would try to expand it.

[Flash Walken]

When the president does it, it's not a crime.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Locke

Actually, this is interesting.

My understanding, and I admit it may be flawed, is that once elected to Public office the POTUS has to eliminate all of his private holdings.

Now this just means that his son buys Trumpco or whatever the hell the conglomerate holding company is called for $1, but still.

That seems weird and unlikely. In Canada politicians have to show their holdings to get them approved and cannot manage their own investments into public securities. So what that means is that they can't have direct say in what they're investing in and someone has to do it for them.

That approach makes sense because then they don't know what they hold and when, or at least can't load up on say TRP and then approve KXL the following day.

[puffnstuff]

The POTUS is supposed to entrust his holdings into something akin to a blind trust I believe.