The Democratic Presidential Nomination 2020

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Yeah I’m on board for whoever can make Trump look dumbest in the debates. That isn’t Biden.

I think Biden is the only candidate who can win the kind of dirty slugfest with Trump that we will see in 2020.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

I’m not sure he needs any help with that.

Definitely not. But getting repeatedly verbally smacked down is the only thing that’s going to swing the fringe vote in my opinion.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by peter12

I think Biden is the only candidate who can win the kind of dirty slugfest with Trump that we will see in 2020.

He’s the safe choice, I just disagree that he’s the right choice. Although I don’t really have an answer myself...

[Bunk]

Final lineup for the next debate is set - one night for 3 hours:

Biden
Booker
Buttigieg
Castro
Harris
Klobuchar
O'Rourke
Sanders
Warren
Yang

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

He’s the safe choice, I just disagree that he’s the right choice. Although I don’t really have an answer myself...

It blows my mind that people wouldn't just want to choose the candidate that had the best chance to beat Trump. That's kind of all that matters right now.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by peter12

It blows my mind that people wouldn't just want to choose the candidate that had the best chance to beat Trump. That's kind of all that matters right now.

That's all anyone wants on the left. The question is, does it make more sense to energize the youth and minority vote with far left progressive policies at the expense of the middle of the electorate, who may vote democrat as a protest vote anyway, or do you go with the safe centrist choice who may alienate some on the extreme left, who may vote democrat as a protest vote, OR, and this is the big or, may just stay home.

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by peter12

It blows my mind that people wouldn't just want to choose the candidate that had the best chance to beat Trump. That's kind of all that matters right now.

A lot of things blow my mind. It blows my mind that there are people that actually think Warren has good domestic policies, yet they are out there. Agreed on Biden being the best choice though. I think he would cruise to an easy victory over Trump but am not sure about anyone else at this point.

[The Yen Man]

I'm actually quite impressed with Yang, both in how he presents himself whenever he's asked questions on his platform, and some of his ideas. I can't see him winning with his UBI platform, but a lot of the things he identifies as the real problems facing America make sense to me. At least it will get people talking on some of the issues like automation, and actual real life solutions to climate change.

Other than the UBI thing, it feels like he's the candidate people wished Trump would be. An intelligent business person who's not a politician shaking up Washington. But where Trump is all bluster, a liar, and an incompetent idiot, Yang seems to be the opposite. Of course, it's yet to be seen if Yang would be able to deliver results if he was president, but the difference is, Yang at least looks like an intelligent person. Trump was always seen as an idiot.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by peter12

It blows my mind that people wouldn't just want to choose the candidate that had the best chance to beat Trump. That's kind of all that matters right now.

It’s absolutely all that matters. That’s all I’m considering. I don’t think Biden will energize the voting public as he needs too.

[GGG]

I don’t get the Love of Biden for the general. He is the only guy that is less mentally acute than Trump.

He is a gaff machine, seems lost when answering questions and has no ideas beyond platitudes.

His polling numbers are only better than other candidates for horserace polls because of name recognition and horserace polls are meaningless at this point. The only argument that really is in his favour is you need an old white male to beat Trump.

Also since undecided voters don’t really exist turnout is all that really matters. Biden won’t drive turnout.

[PepsiFree]

Yeah, I would think having someone exciting with good ideas would drive turnout far far more than "old white male democrat #26483" but then again the US elected Trump, so I honestly don't trust my own sense of how voters would act down there.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

The question is, does it make more sense to energize the youth and minority vote with far left progressive policies at the expense of the middle of the electorate, who may vote democrat as a protest vote anyway, or do you go with the safe centrist choice who may alienate some on the extreme left, who may vote democrat as a protest vote, OR, and this is the big or, may just stay home.

You're probably right about the youth vote. But Democrat minorities are not far left progressives. Only 31 per cent of African Americans identify as liberal. Biden is their favoured candidate by a wide margin. Biden also has a wide lead among Hispanics.

https://www.people-press.org/2019/08...ir-top-choice/

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Yeah, I would think having someone exciting with good ideas would drive turnout far far more than "old white male democrat #26483" but then again the US elected Trump, so I honestly don't trust my own sense of how voters would act down there.

It might help to stop thinking of a typical Democrat as a 32 year old university graduate who watches the Daily Show, regards Obama as a centrist disappointment, and spends 20+ hours a week on social media, and consider that the bedrock of the party is closer to a 57 year old black woman who works at the DMV, watches Celebrity Family Feud, and goes to church every Sunday.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by peter12

I think Biden is the only candidate who can win the kind of dirty slugfest with Trump that we will see in 2020.

Why do you think so? It conflicts heavily with what analysts seem to think (namely, that Yang, Bernie, Warren and Biden all have an even or better chance if they're the nominee) and they're putting their money where their mouths are:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1167077387269545984

I've said previously that I think this is probably too optimistic but if you're just looking for democrats with the best chance to beat Trump if nominated, I have no idea why you'd think Biden was the only one with a chance.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Why do you think so? It conflicts heavily with what analysts seem to think, and they're putting their money where their mouths are:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1167077387269545984

I laughed out loud at this post. Yang is polling at 2.5% and has no chance of being chosen as candidate.

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Other than the UBI thing, it feels like he's the candidate people wished Trump would be. An intelligent business person who's not a politician shaking up Washington. But where Trump is all bluster, a liar, and an incompetent idiot, Yang seems to be the opposite. Of course, it's yet to be seen if Yang would be able to deliver results if he was president, but the difference is, Yang at least looks like an intelligent person. Trump was always seen as an idiot.

I remember thinking back when Trump won how amazing it was that a political outsider that is independently wealthy and therefore not beholden to any special interest groups would be the next president. Yet, at the same time, I felt so disappointed that that person was Trump...

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by peter12

I laughed out loud at this post. Yang is polling at 2.5% and has no chance of being chosen as candidate.

To be fair, Trump, Obama, Carter, lots of guys who were polling pretty low early in the process ended up winning their nominations, and at least Yang is trending in the right direction. But I'm biased, in that I like Yang. Regardless, though, that number is his "if he were to win the primary" odds of winning the general - it assumes he is the Democratic nominee, which as you say, is highly unlikely. Which is why his odds of being president are so low (3%).

The point stands that it's unclear why you'd think Biden isn't the only or best chance they have against Trump.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

That is his "if he were to win the primary" odds of winning the general - it assumes he is the Democratic nominee, which is highly unlikely. Which is why his odds of being president are so low.

The point stands that it's unclear why you'd think Biden isn't the only or best chance they have against Trump.

I think that a white Boomer associated with the Obama Presidency is a good start. He also doesn't come off as particularly fragile in a personal sense. He's not going to fall into the Trump barbs so easily.

I think if he makes Warren his VP, then he's going to get some decent policy.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Warren as VP makes far more sense to me than Warren at the top of the ticket. I just think Biden is clearly out of it (he can't seem to remember what state he's in at times and has already suggested that the current pace of the primary race is too much for him). I also doubt he's going to win the nomination at the end of the day, because eventually one of Bernie or Warren will drop out, and neither candidate's supporters are likely to have Biden as their second choice.

The odds above seem to think that it'll be Bernie dropping out and his supporters going to Warren, I guess, but it could really go either way.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Warren as VP makes far more sense to me than Warren at the top of the ticket. I just think Biden is clearly out of it (he can't seem to remember what state he's in at times and has already suggested that the current pace of the primary race is too much for him). I also doubt he's going to win the nomination at the end of the day, because eventually one of Bernie or Warren will drop out, and neither candidate's supporters are likely to have Biden as their second choice.

The odds above seem to think that it'll be Bernie dropping out and his supporters going to Warren, I guess, but it could really go either way.

It's possible. I am thinking specifically of who his opponent is and I think Biden is the best candidate to beat Trump, but you are right, second choices on the ballots will dictate who the nominee is.