08-15-2022, 08:58 AM
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#6841
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Helsinki, Finland
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pointman
I was referring to his quote below and so far it's not happening. While there seems to be a consensus among the west that Russia will feel effects of sanctions at some point, that point does not seem to be by late August or September. It also could be that western experts are just telling western people that sanctions hurt Russia badly because this is what the west wants to hear.
Quote:
The economic situation is deteriorating and we will begin feeling that seriously by late August or September. It’s a gradual process. One company closes, people have to look for new jobs, then another closes, and so on. Certain goods are disappearing, but not everything
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Russia is very obviously already feeling the effects of sanctions, so I'm not sure what exactly are you arguing. He's saying nothing about a collapse there, just fairly basic points about how economical effects take effect slowly and spread gradually.
What counts as "feeling seriously" is obviously open to interpretation.
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08-15-2022, 09:43 AM
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#6842
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: SW Ontario
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I'd say the immediate impact of the sanctions was over-stated by people so there was a feeling that Russia was going to fall into an immediate shambles when the reality is more of a slow decline - death by paper cuts - that will occur over a long time frame.
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08-15-2022, 10:31 AM
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#6843
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First Line Centre
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I mean it's really hard to claim that sanctions were hard hitting...when all of Europe was still importing oil & gas from Russia.
Heck Europe still imported late July until Russia cut the supply themselves as a political tool.
There's also a significant amount of US companies still operating in Russia. While sanctions were harsh money still flowed into Russia.
That said, an economic collapse doesn't just happen next day after sanctions hit. Considering Russia is also running their economy in a closed system now it's much easier to prop up the economy in its own bubble (see the Ruble).
The stock market crash of 1929 was seen as the shock catalyst for the great depression, but even the great depression took 4 years to show its full force in actual economic numbers such as unemployment. We are still only 6 months in here.
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/1...at-depression/
Take the words of the Russian Central Bank with a grain of salt, their entire strategy is to soften the blow of Putin's war and disastrous effects and present a positive picture, and only delaying the inevitable.
Last edited by Firebot; 08-15-2022 at 10:35 AM.
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08-15-2022, 10:36 AM
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#6844
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Firebot
I mean it's really hard to claim that sanctions were hard hitting...when all of Europe was still importing oil & gas from Russia.
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That, and the fact China, India, and the rest of Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East are still carrying on business as usual with Russia.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by fotze
If this day gets you riled up, you obviously aren't numb to the disappointment yet to be a real fan.
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Last edited by CliffFletcher; 08-15-2022 at 10:40 AM.
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08-15-2022, 10:48 AM
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#6845
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Ate 100 Treadmills
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Firebot
I mean it's really hard to claim that sanctions were hard hitting...when all of Europe was still importing oil & gas from Russia.
Heck Europe still imported late July until Russia cut the supply themselves as a political tool.
There's also a significant amount of US companies still operating in Russia. While sanctions were harsh money still flowed into Russia.
That said, an economic collapse doesn't just happen next day after sanctions hit. Considering Russia is also running their economy in a closed system now it's much easier to prop up the economy in its own bubble (see the Ruble).
The stock market crash of 1929 was seen as the shock catalyst for the great depression, but even the great depression took 4 years to show its full force in actual economic numbers such as unemployment. We are still only 6 months in here.
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/1...at-depression/
Take the words of the Russian Central Bank with a grain of salt, their entire strategy is to soften the blow of Putin's war and disastrous effects and present a positive picture, and only delaying the inevitable.
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Oil and gas is such a massive part of Russia's economy it's hard to really hit at them with sanctions. Especially when the price of oil/gas goes up so dramatically, as it has this past year.
As long as China is buying up all the extra Russian oil (even at a discount, which is rumoured at $10-12/barrel) and oil prices remain elevated it's going to be hard to really hit Russia economically.
Russia's economy was already in pretty bad shape before all this, and the rubble is actually higher now than it has been in several years. For the average Russian, they may be seeing fewer luxury goods in the stores, but could they even afford those a year ago?
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08-15-2022, 05:02 PM
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#6846
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Vancouver
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I'm curious as to what happens if China's economy stagnates like some are predicting. They aren't going to need Russia for as much after that, and they will probably set their own prices.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
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08-16-2022, 08:41 AM
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#6848
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First Line Centre
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Last edited by Firebot; 08-16-2022 at 08:45 AM.
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08-16-2022, 09:05 AM
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#6849
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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08-16-2022, 09:16 AM
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#6850
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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A young guy I follow in Ukraine lost a finger today, now making jokes about being Frodo.
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08-16-2022, 10:43 AM
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#6851
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burn_this_city
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This is my favorite update. Wagner is such a #### stain on humanity and deserves to be eliminated.
Ukraine taking out the trash that infests this world.
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08-16-2022, 12:01 PM
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#6852
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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08-16-2022, 12:16 PM
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#6853
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Franchise Player
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I wonder how long before Putin gets tired of having hi #### blown up by American weapons, and starts to ratchet up the rhetoric? He's not gong to take this beating for too long.
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08-16-2022, 12:23 PM
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#6854
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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I suspect there will be some kind of escalation on August 24th targeting Ukrainian Independence celebrations. Apparently there are a lot of missiles being massed in Belarus, likely for strikes on Kyiv. There is also rumor of 10-15k Belarussian soldiers willing to invade from the North.
Last edited by burn_this_city; 08-16-2022 at 12:25 PM.
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08-16-2022, 01:54 PM
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#6855
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: The centre of everything
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I think you might see Poland ask NATO to hold their beer, say "I've got this" to avoid Article 5, and then go pound the piss out of Belarus. I get the feeling they've had enough and are making back room threats to hold Belarus off and keep Russia away from the Baltics.
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08-16-2022, 03:01 PM
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#6857
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Haifa, Israel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burn_this_city
I suspect there will be some kind of escalation on August 24th targeting Ukrainian Independence celebrations. Apparently there are a lot of missiles being massed in Belarus, likely for strikes on Kyiv. There is also rumor of 10-15k Belarussian soldiers willing to invade from the North.
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Well, all the predictions about Russia trying to do something for the May 9 victory day didn't age well, but for those who believe in the pacts of big dates, Putin turns 70 on Oct 7th.
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08-16-2022, 03:16 PM
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#6859
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pointman
Well, all the predictions about Russia trying to do something for the May 9 victory day didn't age well, but for those who believe in the pacts of big dates, Putin turns 70 on Oct 7th.
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With any luck, he won't.
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08-16-2022, 03:22 PM
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#6860
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Sylvan Lake
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pointman
Well, all the predictions about Russia trying to do something for the May 9 victory day didn't age well, but for those who believe in the pacts of big dates, Putin turns 70 on Oct 7th.
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Let's hope that ####### gets a third eye for his birthday
__________________
Captain James P. DeCOSTE, CD, 18 Sep 1993
Corporal Jean-Marc H. BECHARD, 6 Aug 1993
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sliver
Just ignore me...I'm in a mood today.
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