There's a very real possibility that Bernie could go in the convention as leader with only about 35% of delegates and 35-40% of the popular votes. You could potentially have 3 moderates hanging around in the 20-30% range.
What a huge mess that would make. Bernie's people would think he's the obvious choice with a significant lead. Moderates would see that two thirds of the party want a moderate and have rejected Bernie.
Yes, it's shaping up to be a huge mess. Sanders has the support of 35 per cent of Democrats, but that seems to be his ceiling. His supporters' expectation that he'd draw in large numbers of younger and new voters is not materializing.
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Far from driving out high turnout, Sanders has not attracted waves of new, younger voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. According to the CNN exit poll, just 12% of New Hampshire voters were first-timers, and just 11% were under 30 years old. All this in a state he won by 22 points four years ago, a stone’s throw from his home base of Vermont.
You could say the same thing about Biden hurting Pete and Amy. If Pete, Amy and maybe Bloomberg all keep picking up 2/3rds of the delegates but split them out pretty well, do they figure out one person to endorse? Do those delegates carry over to them? It sounds like the rules for all that are pretty murky.
At least they are getting delegates. Warren cant get any.
At a brokered convention those delegates can move around.
It would be like the Iowa caucuses on steroids.
Current Delegates out of 64
Pete 13+9=22
Bernie 12+9=22
Liz 8+0=8
Amy 0+7=7
Joe 6+0=6
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Last edited by GirlySports; 02-12-2020 at 09:21 AM.
I still think that the ticket is going to be Biden/Klobuchar, but with momentum the way it is, could a Klobuchar/Buttigieg be on the horizon? I still believe that Sanders is too extreme for most Americans, but some of his policies could be worked into a platform that makes his supporters happy. If there is a candidate that could charge up the young voters, and drive them to the polls, Buttigieg is that guy. Checks a lot of boxes.
The most important thing for Democrats to do is to stop the madness of beating each other up. They need to start coalescing around the values of the party and get those out in front of the voters. As each candidate drops out, they need to remain active and show support for the banner carrier and get fully behind them, extolling the virtues of the nominee instead of the #### show that happened between Sanders and Clinton. Everyone pull in the same direction with the end goal of making Trump a one term president.
I still think that the ticket is going to be Biden/Klobuchar, but with momentum the way it is, could a Klobuchar/Buttigieg be on the horizon? I still believe that Sanders is too extreme for most Americans, but some of his policies could be worked into a platform that makes his supporters happy. If there is a candidate that could charge up the young voters, and drive them to the polls, Buttigieg is that guy. Checks a lot of boxes.
The most important thing for Democrats to do is to stop the madness of beating each other up. They need to start coalescing around the values of the party and get those out in front of the voters. As each candidate drops out, they need to remain active and show support for the banner carrier and get fully behind them, extolling the virtues of the nominee instead of the #### show that happened between Sanders and Clinton. Everyone pull in the same direction with the end goal of making Trump a one term president.
I agree with everything that you've said. When you have a presidential candidate talking a what 15% to 24% income tax increase, and what amounts to federal service, and free tuition for example, and nebulous ways to pay for it, it might not resonate with middle america where most of the voters lie.
This should be a battle of the middle few voters, but Bernie isn't going to resonate with a lot of democratic voters out there who just might choose to show their lack of support by staying home.
Someone said that the Democratic Candidate that Trump would most like to face is Bernie, I tend to agree with that. A middle democrat is Trumps biggest nightmare, someone that can unit the base democrats and reach out to the non aligned voters and bring them on board.
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I still think that the ticket is going to be Biden/Klobuchar, but with momentum the way it is, could a Klobuchar/Buttigieg be on the horizon? I still believe that Sanders is too extreme for most Americans, but some of his policies could be worked into a platform that makes his supporters happy. If there is a candidate that could charge up the young voters, and drive them to the polls, Buttigieg is that guy. Checks a lot of boxes.
Yo, what?? The guy is polling at the bottom of the barrel amongst young voters.
Quote:
Sanders was the preferred candidate for 32 percent of respondents in the Forbes-Zogby poll of voters between the ages of 18 and 29. Former Vice President Joe Biden follows with 16 percent, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg were tied for third with 9 percent.
Entrepreneur Andrew Yang came in at 8 percent, with Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) tied at 3 percent. Thirteen percent of respondents said they were undecided.
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It's going to be Bloomberg rather than Biden. Unlimited money buys you viability, he's already siphoning centrist support in upcoming states, especially among minorities.
Trump's head will explode if he gets beat out by Bloomberg. Nothing triggers Trump's inferiority complex more than a much wealthier person taking him to the woodshed.
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I just don't see any way that Bernie could win the presidency. There has probably never been a potential presidential candidate in modern history that would be easier for Republicans to fear monger against. On healthcare alone the message will be that Bernie wants to cancel private healthcare for 150 million Americans while increasing their taxes. If Bernie does try to soften some of his policies, his base will just view him as a sellout. The head-to-head polls at this point are meaningless because everyone has been handling Sanders with kid gloves. If he wins the nomination, everything that he stands for will be conflated with communism. Seriously, if you want to get rid of Trump, he is the last guy that you should want to see win the nomination.
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Yo, what?? The guy is polling at the bottom of the barrel amongst young voters.
Because they never heard of him. I talk with young people and they know the big names, but don't know the new names. He needs to reach out to them more (college campus barn storming) and get his name and message out there. One of the issues that young people don't understand is the public service component of Pete's message. Then again, most people don't understand it and the value it provides. This should be an automatic win with young people. We'll let you do something related to public service for two years, then your next two years of education (vocational, college, university) are paid for. A win for communities and a win for young people looking for opportunity. Unfortunately, that message is not getting out there and the young people aren't searching out options.
Bernie's second biggest problem is that when you sound bite his ideas, they're even easier to attack as "Socialism". Some of them straight up are, but some of them are actually quite minimal when they're given context and explained, it's just that that opportunity no longer exists in modern campaigns.
His biggest problem is still that the step he wants to take is just too big for Americans as a whole to take at once. He needs a mini-Bernie to happen before him to get them moving in that direction first.
Also the part where if he gets elected he's getting nothing done because there's zero chance the Republicans work with him.
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I just don't see any way that Bernie could win the presidency. There has probably never been a potential presidential candidate in modern history that would be easier for Republicans to fear monger against. On healthcare alone the message will be that Bernie wants to cancel private healthcare for 150 million Americans while increasing their taxes. If Bernie does try to soften some of his policies, his base will just view him as a sellout. The head-to-head polls at this point are meaningless because everyone has been handling Sanders with kid gloves. If he wins the nomination, everything that he stands for will be conflated with communism. Seriously, if you want to get rid of Trump, he is the last guy that you should want to see win the nomination.
Bernie wins because he can mobilize a legion of voters who feel disenfranchised by a system rigged against them. Young people and minorities will vote for change and Bernie represents that change.
I'm the opposite of you. I don't see any way that Biden/Buttigieg can win because they don't offer any incentive to vote for them. Fox News will call any democrat a communist. Why try to cater to them?
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Because they never heard of him. I talk with young people and they know the big names, but don't know the new names. He needs to reach out to them more (college campus barn storming) and get his name and message out there. One of the issues that young people don't understand is the public service component of Pete's message. Then again, most people don't understand it and the value it provides. This should be an automatic win with young people. We'll let you do something related to public service for two years, then your next two years of education (vocational, college, university) are paid for. A win for communities and a win for young people looking for opportunity. Unfortunately, that message is not getting out there and the young people aren't searching out options.
Mayo Pete polls low with Millennials because they can smell a phony. No one wants a fake platitude Obama lite. He's just more of the same, sell hope and change and take money from Billionaires to keep the status quo. Boomers love him because he won't actually change anything.
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Because they never heard of him. I talk with young people and they know the big names, but don't know the new names. He needs to reach out to them more (college campus barn storming) and get his name and message out there. One of the issues that young people don't understand is the public service component of Pete's message. Then again, most people don't understand it and the value it provides. This should be an automatic win with young people. We'll let you do something related to public service for two years, then your next two years of education (vocational, college, university) are paid for. A win for communities and a win for young people looking for opportunity. Unfortunately, that message is not getting out there and the young people aren't searching out options.
Because they never heard of him. I talk with young people and they know the big names, but don't know the new names. He needs to reach out to them more (college campus barn storming) and get his name and message out there. One of the issues that young people don't understand is the public service component of Pete's message. Then again, most people don't understand it and the value it provides. This should be an automatic win with young people. We'll let you do something related to public service for two years, then your next two years of education (vocational, college, university) are paid for. A win for communities and a win for young people looking for opportunity. Unfortunately, that message is not getting out there and the young people aren't searching out options.
Everything is very fluid right now. Minorities are (were?) solidly behind Biden, but I don't think their ties were that strong. From what I've heard, they like him because he was Obama's guy and they think it takes an old, white guy to beat Trump. They'll quickly jump ship if Biden doesn't look like a winner anymore, which he really doesn't. I don't know where they'll land though. None of the leading candidates seem like obvious choices.
Young people are going to be fluid as well. There's definitely a good size chunk of young socialists all about what Bernie is selling, then there are some Trump loyalists, but I see a whole lot of them in the middle (from Republican and Democrat families) who just want to jump on board whoever they think can beat Trump.
If someone can get a bandwagon going that they are the one who can beat Trump, they'll win over all the demographics pretty quickly.
Mayo Pete polls low with Millennials because they can smell a phony. No one wants a fake platitude Obama lite. He's just more of the same, sell hope and change and take money from Billionaires to keep the status quo. Boomers love him because he won't actually change anything.
Nobody really thinks like that outside your Bernie Bros bubble.
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Americans aren't gonna hand the country over to Bolshevik Bernie when the economy is rolling the way it is. Inflated or not.
I mean, if you form your world view around your facebook/twitter feed then sure. Hes awesome. But hes not a winner with joe lunchpail, democrat or otherwise.
Mayo Pete polls low with Millennials because they can smell a phony. No one wants a fake platitude Obama lite. He's just more of the same, sell hope and change and take money from Billionaires to keep the status quo. Boomers love him because he won't actually change anything.
