Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[Ozy_Flame]

While I think it's a bit early to be making statements like this since we aren't completely out of lockdown and don't know how corporate culture will be affected long term, I have no doubt that we have accelerated work-from-home culture that will have an impact on business travel and where/how we commute.

Goldman Sachs official says companies switching to Zoom instead of business travel could hit oil demand by up to 3 million barrels per day

he coronavirus pandemic will take a lasting chunk out of business travel and hit demand for oil as companies adapt to Zoom and other video-conferencing tools, a Goldman Sachs official said Thursday.

“I think you’re going to lose a good chunk of the jet demand that would have been associated with business travel. Our base case is you lose somewhere around 2 to 3 million barrels per day,” said Jeff Currie, Goldman’s global head of commodities research, at a media briefing.

Global oil demand is expected to fall by 9.3 million barrels per day in 2020, according to the International Energy Agency.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

While I think it's a bit early to be making statements like this since we aren't completely out of lockdown and don't know how corporate culture will be affected long term, I have no doubt that we have accelerated work-from-home culture that will have an impact on business travel and where/how we commute.

Goldman Sachs official says companies switching to Zoom instead of business travel could hit oil demand by up to 3 million barrels per day

he coronavirus pandemic will take a lasting chunk out of business travel and hit demand for oil as companies adapt to Zoom and other video-conferencing tools, a Goldman Sachs official said Thursday.

“I think you’re going to lose a good chunk of the jet demand that would have been associated with business travel. Our base case is you lose somewhere around 2 to 3 million barrels per day,” said Jeff Currie, Goldman’s global head of commodities research, at a media briefing.

Global oil demand is expected to fall by 9.3 million barrels per day in 2020, according to the International Energy Agency.

This really should be looked at as one of the great positives of this pandemic, less oil being burned on a daily basis is a win for everyone, even if they can't admit it

[Ozy_Flame]

Los Angeles actually had minimal smog during the lockdown and looked fantastic. Even in India there are urban areas that can see the Himalayas on the horizon again. This whole event has demonstrated how much car/commute culture has contributed to air pollution.

[CliffFletcher]

I honestly doubt this will move the needle much on working from home. There's a narrative out there that the reason companies haven't gotten onboard with remote work in the past is owners and managers are old-fashioned and irrational. But the reason is more basic - it's simply less efficient. Especially in any kind of collaborative field. Remote meetings suck. A lot of people get distracted at home. And most people work better when they know and like their colleagues.

We'll probably see greater allowance for people to work from home if they have a sick kid or have appointments at home. But the introvert dream of never have to go into the office is not going to be realized once we emerge from this pandemic.

[Torture]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I honestly doubt this will move the needle much on working from home. There's a narrative out there that the reason companies haven't gotten onboard with remote work in the past is owners and managers are old-fashioned and irrational. But the reason is more basic - it's simply less efficient. Especially in any kind of collaborative field. Remote meetings suck. A lot of people get distracted at home. And most people work better when they know and like their colleagues.

We'll probably see greater allowance for people to work from home if they have a sick kid or have appointments at home. But the introvert dream of never have to go into the office is not going to be realized once we emerge from this pandemic.

I disagree. Obviously it depends on the workplace but I have seen lots of employees told "you can't work from home" because their manager simply doesn't trust or believe that work can be done efficiently from home.

At a lot of companies those managers have been proven wrong. That doesn't mean that those managers won't still be old fashioned, but employees probably won't buy the argument that they can't get their work done from home because they've already demonstrated they could!

But that said, yes, people will still have to go to offices for certain tasks or days and it's not going to be 100% work from home.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Torture

I disagree. Obviously it depends on the workplace but I have seen lots of employees told "you can't work from home" because their manager simply doesn't trust or believe that work can be done efficiently from home.

At a lot of companies those managers have been proven wrong. That doesn't mean that those managers won't still be old fashioned, but employees probably won't buy the argument that they can't get their work done from home because they've already demonstrated they could!

But that said, yes, people will still have to go to offices for certain tasks or days and it's not going to be 100% work from home.

Trust may be the biggest issue holding companies back from keeping work from home once this is over. I certainly saw this prior to the pandemic at my office and during the initial work from home days as well although I hope this is disappearing as we prove we can be trusted to work from home.

Meetings will be the other item for me. So far we have managed well with internal meetings but external meetings with clients are a different issue entirely. Not sure how those will go and if they can be replaced easily with online meetings.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Torture

I disagree. Obviously it depends on the workplace but I have seen lots of employees told "you can't work from home" because their manager simply doesn't trust or believe that work can be done efficiently from home.

At a lot of companies those managers have been proven wrong. That doesn't mean that those managers won't still be old fashioned, but employees probably won't buy the argument that they can't get their work done from home because they've already demonstrated they could!

There's a huge financial incentive for companies to encourage people to work from home. Rent, facilities, furniture, etc. are big expenses. Why would profit-driven companies continue to spend so much money on those resources if they didn't have evidence that it was worthwhile?

We have 15 years of data from people working from home, including major companies that encouraged telecommuting for much of their workforce. When the results came in it turned out most teams simply aren't as productive, regardless of how they feel.

If you you have a job where you have a 100 hours of work to do by yourself without interacting with others, and you're the kind of person who can shut off all distractions at home and put your nose to the grindstone for 8 hours, then sure, you might be as productive. But that doesn't describe most jobs and most people in a modern, collaborate knowledge economy.

In 2009, IBM reported that 40% of its 386,000 employees in 173 countries were working remotely. That policy allowed IBM to sell off its office buildings at a gain of almost $2 billion. Hailed as a savvy business strategy, the trend of telecommuting was soon in full swing.

Impressive, right? Why then, in March of this year, did IBM pull thousands of its workers back into the workplace? Was it the desperate move of a company whose profits had fallen, as some pundits suggest? Or might it be the result of something else - something that has triggered companies like Yahoo, Aetna and Best Buy to also pull back their work-from-home home policies, and corporations like Apple and Google to pass on the concept of telecommuting in the first place?

Consider, for instance, the increasing emphasis on collaboration and the corresponding realization that any collaborative effort is highly dependent upon well-developed personal relationships among participants. While remote workers might be highly efficient with individual efforts, nothing builds collaborative relationships better than being physically present.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolki.../#851064c16da2

[RichieRich]

For some that have office-heavy type of work, working from home simply is significantly less productive. For some that might only be a difference of 10% however I'm finding closer to 50% productivity loss when so much of my work involves expediting others to do work, to have specific conversations, and to get my own deliverables done. So so much of my work is literally a multitude of daily 2-5min conversations (of 2-5 people) that are so easy to do by me purposely going to someones office/cubicle. Now that I'm at home it's hard to get people on the phone, on some type of screen share, getting technology to sync up, etc... so that 5min has suddenly ballooned to a 30min "appointment". I know for fact some types of work can still be efficient at home... but not everyones. So I don't see the ALL-office all of the time, but I do see perhaps some remote offices, or allowances for 2-3 days working from home for many.

[Torture]

Originally Posted by RichieRich

For some that have office-heavy type of work, working from home simply is significantly less productive. For some that might only be a difference of 10% however I'm finding closer to 50% productivity loss when so much of my work involves expediting others to do work, to have specific conversations, and to get my own deliverables done. So so much of my work is literally a multitude of daily 2-5min conversations (of 2-5 people) that are so easy to do by me purposely going to someones office/cubicle. Now that I'm at home it's hard to get people on the phone, on some type of screen share, getting technology to sync up, etc... so that 5min has suddenly ballooned to a 30min "appointment". I know for fact some types of work can still be efficient at home... but not everyones. So I don't see the ALL-office all of the time, but I do see perhaps some remote offices, or allowances for 2-3 days working from home for many.

This is how I see it as well. It's also seems to be the direction my company is aiming for after this.

I don't need to be in an office 5 days a week to get my work done. Half of it is conference calls with people in the US anyways so what difference does it make if I'm sitting in a work office or a home office for those calls? Give me a cell phone and a computer and I can get the majority of my work done from anywhere.

There are definitely times I need to be at work for relationships or do things in person but in your average week it's probably only a few days a week.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

The work from home thing will be considerably easier if/when the kids are back in school, as well.

Having said that, I would expect my company to still insist on bums in seats for most employees. Maybe things would change when leases are up and better infrastructure is in place for work at home. It isn't enough to have a VPN and company laptops. It is a different way of conducting business.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

There's a huge financial incentive for companies to encourage people to work from home. Rent, facilities, furniture, etc. are big expenses. Why would profit-driven companies continue to spend so much money on those resources if they didn't have evidence that it was worthwhile?

We have 15 years of data from people working from home, including major companies that encouraged telecommuting for much of their workforce. When the results came in it turned out most teams simply aren't as productive, regardless of how they feel.

If you you have a job where you have a 100 hours of work to do by yourself without interacting with others, and you're the kind of person who can shut off all distractions at home and put your nose to the grindstone for 8 hours, then sure, you might be as productive. But that doesn't describe most jobs and most people in a modern, collaborate knowledge economy.

I worked from home for IBM near the period of this study. I hated it. I was one of 2 people on a team of 30 that decided to be in the office full time.

That company was not setup for remote work, and technology has advanced a lot since then as well.

My current company has seen an increase in productivity since everyone moved to working from home for COVID. We were well setup as already ~30% of staff worked remotely.

I highly agree with the point of the article you posted mentioning needing to form those collaborative relationships. IBM was very guilty of never bringing people together. I was a junior employee that saw my boss (who lived in Airdrie) twice in a year. Many of my teammates in Calgary I'd never met in person. My current employer was flying everyone in 4 times a year or more, and it paid off quite a bit in forming those relationships.

[bossy22]

My wife's company has made the decision not to rush back to the office. They have their morning calls every day with the executive team and they've found that productivity hasn't been hampered at all and so they are going to do the wait and see approach. When they do decide to open up their office it will of course be in stages, but they are holding off for now. She did acknowledge that they will be going back at some point, but the one thing they have re-evaluated, was the air travel. They are going to be cutting back huge. My wife traveled multiple times a month to meet with her staff around North America, and this has proven that she no longer needs to do that.



Now for me, it's annoying. I want my peace and quiet back. She's on daily zoom meetings, and then on fridays she's doing zoom drinks with her colleagues. She has a home office, but still, it's not sound proof.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by bossy22

My wife's company has made the decision not to rush back to the office. They have their morning calls every day with the executive team and they've found that productivity hasn't been hampered at all and so they are going to do the wait and see approach. When they do decide to open up their office it will of course be in stages, but they are holding off for now. She did acknowledge that they will be going back at some point, but the one thing they have re-evaluated, was the air travel. They are going to be cutting back huge. My wife traveled multiple times a month to meet with her staff around North America, and this has proven that she no longer needs to do that.



Now for me, it's annoying. I want my peace and quiet back. She's on daily zoom meetings, and then on fridays she's doing zoom drinks with her colleagues. She has a home office, but still, it's not sound proof.

Sound proof the office ?

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by bossy22

My wife's company has made the decision not to rush back to the office. They have their morning calls every day with the executive team and they've found that productivity hasn't been hampered at all and so they are going to do the wait and see approach. When they do decide to open up their office it will of course be in stages, but they are holding off for now. She did acknowledge that they will be going back at some point, but the one thing they have re-evaluated, was the air travel. They are going to be cutting back huge. My wife traveled multiple times a month to meet with her staff around North America, and this has proven that she no longer needs to do that.



Now for me, it's annoying. I want my peace and quiet back. She's on daily zoom meetings, and then on fridays she's doing zoom drinks with her colleagues. She has a home office, but still, it's not sound proof.

PWC? Ha

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I honestly doubt this will move the needle much on working from home. There's a narrative out there that the reason companies haven't gotten onboard with remote work in the past is owners and managers are old-fashioned and irrational. But the reason is more basic - it's simply less efficient. Especially in any kind of collaborative field. Remote meetings suck. A lot of people get distracted at home. And most people work better when they know and like their colleagues.

We'll probably see greater allowance for people to work from home if they have a sick kid or have appointments at home. But the introvert dream of never have to go into the office is not going to be realized once we emerge from this pandemic.

It depends on the field, really. I work in a very small firm where everyone is friends and a lot of our work can be done remotely. That said, yes, we all prefer the interaction with each other face to face.

I think you are totally right on the greater allowances/more flexibility component.

[boogerz]

Originally Posted by RichieRich

For some that have office-heavy type of work, working from home simply is significantly less productive. For some that might only be a difference of 10% however I'm finding closer to 50% productivity loss when so much of my work involves expediting others to do work, to have specific conversations, and to get my own deliverables done. So so much of my work is literally a multitude of daily 2-5min conversations (of 2-5 people) that are so easy to do by me purposely going to someones office/cubicle. Now that I'm at home it's hard to get people on the phone, on some type of screen share, getting technology to sync up, etc... so that 5min has suddenly ballooned to a 30min "appointment". I know for fact some types of work can still be efficient at home... but not everyones. So I don't see the ALL-office all of the time, but I do see perhaps some remote offices, or allowances for 2-3 days working from home for many.

Agreed on the decreased productivity. Herding a project team, cross-functional team, or whatever you want to call it can be a PITA remotely. Tablet culture is eroding people's technological literacy.

Same thing with videoconferencing. I can handle being in meetings all day without a problem, but a full day of video conferencing is incredibly exhausting and there's studies that back this up.

Relationship building is also quite difficult. Not so easy to swing by the cubicle of someone that you don't know, introduce yourself, and ask them a question when said people are screening their calls and Teams/Skype messages for names and numbers they don't know.





I'm very introverted and have the luxury of having my own private home office, but I'm looking forward to getting to go back into the office again

[Bunk]

I dread a future of way more people working from home, plus way more e-commerce and delivery replacing bricks and mortar establishments. Aside from incremental gains of less traffic congestion and pollution - image what that will do to civic life in cities. It'll severely dull the places that make civic life vibrant - places like downtown and commercial districts. It’ll also make us more socially isolated than ever. I sincerely miss the everyday human interaction of being out in the world, including at the office. If it is viewed as possible, I think the cost savings for employers will be too strong a factor compared to social desire of many employees to work in office environments. The knock on effects economically and societally are huge. And that’ll be a shame, I think.

[peter12]

Very well said, Bunk. I hadn't even considered that effect.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Bunk

I dread a future of way more people working from home, plus way more e-commerce and delivery replacing bricks and mortar establishments. Aside from incremental gains of less traffic congestion and pollution - image what that will do to civic life in cities. It'll severely dull the places that make civic life vibrant - places like downtown and commercial districts. It’ll also make us more socially isolated than ever. I sincerely miss the everyday human interaction of being out in the world, including at the office. If it is viewed as possible, I think the cost savings for employers will be too strong a factor compared to social desire of many employees to work in office environments. The knock on effects economically and societally are huge. And that’ll be a shame, I think.

Where I live in Virginia, there had already been a big move to working from home. More than half my suburban neighborhood works from home regularly. I work for a very decentralized organization, so even if I go into the office, the people I work with are in NY, Dallas, St Louis, KC... so what's the point? Even people who work in offices are rarely downtown. Suburban office parks, small office buildings in cool entertainment districts are the creative businesses homes.

One thing I've noticed as we've moved that way (it wasn't like that 17 years ago when I moved here), is the suburbs have become a lot cooler. The chain restaurants are disappearing every day, and are replaced by lots of cool concept independent restaurants, small chains, craft breweries, etc. Entertainment districts have popped up in old warehouse districts that have been converted to food halls, craft breweries/distilleries/restaurants, lofts, other apartments, hotels. People are living/working in these areas away from downtown and imo have a much eclectic and interesting vibe than places counting on downtown office clientele.

[TorqueDog]

Microsoft folks are pretty much all working from home where possible. The execs have not said flat out that everyone will be remote until the end of the year like Google, for example, but rather saying it's indefinite. I don't anticipate any business travel for at least six to nine months.