China flexing its muscles with Taiwan

[CaptainCrunch]

Over the last few days, China has sent 150 planes into Taiwanese airspace.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58794094

Taiwan has urged Beijing to stop "irresponsible provocative actions" after 56 Chinese warplanes entered its air defence zone on Monday - the largest ever reported incursion by China's air force.


Taiwan called Beijing the "chief culprit" for recent tensions.

But China has blamed the United States for increased agitations with Taiwan.

China sees democratic Taiwan as a breakaway province, but Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign state.


The island has been complaining for more than a year about China's air force repeatedly flying nearby.

Since Friday, China has sent almost 150 aircraft into Taiwan's defence zone.

Its still dicey for China to even think of reclaiming Taiwan through Military Forces. It would bring the American's in.

A few years ago it would have been a non starter as China's Navy was considered to be more coastal and a weaker sister to the People's Liberation Army and Airforce. They also lacked the amphibious capability to mount any kind of invasion.

However China has worked hard on a major naval rebuild.

In terms of the breakdown, the Chinese have

Ballistic Missile Submarines


6 type 94 - Commissioned in 2007, 1 older type 92 Xia class

Attack Submarines
Nuclear 3 old Han Class, 6 Type 93 class 4 of which are the modernized Type 93 A

Conventional - 4 modern Yuan Class 12 Song 12 older Kilo Class
4 ancient Ming Class

2 Aircraft Carriers - 1kuznetsov Class - More of a test bed with a lot of issues. but can still mount an airwing of 33 fixed wing and 12 helicopters. 1 type 2 commissioned last year carries 33 J-15 and 12 helicopters.

Amphibious Assault ships various classes 41

Destroyers modern various classes 37

46 Frigates - Most of whom were commissioned in the last 10 years

38 Corvettes type 56 and 56 A fairly modern

16 fleet replenishment models.

300 Fighters and fighter bombers. This includes 24 H-6 strategic bombers that can carry out a anti-ship anti-carrier role. This number doesn't include the J-20 Stealth fighter which is active with numbers between 50 and 150.

We can talk about the American Navy, but realistically in the China Sea under the protection of Chinese long range anti-ship missiles, the Forces correlation would favor the Chinese.

I doubt that China is actively going to attack Taiwan, or bombard it. But their next move would be to cut off the South China Seas. But their real interest is still the resource rich Spratly Islands. Which is why the Chinese are building carrier aviation and new generation subs so quickly while increasing the active range of their shore batteries and bulking up their airforce. China is building a power projecting navy.

[Mr.Coffee]

I really don’t think the Americans are going to go to war over Taiwan.

I would think now is the time for China to strike and I also think, as per multiple sources and various commenters / experts regarding this issue, it’s only a matter of time now (according to them, about 5 years or so).

It’s coming, and America is not going to risk nuclear war over it.

This has “Crimea Part 2: this time it’s China” written all over it.

[Harry Lime]

An interesting breakdown of the Japanese Navy, focused on post China stepping in on the Senkaku Islands. China is flexing all over the South China Sea, and it's unclear where the breaking point is, but much like the skirmishes between border patrols on the Indian border, China doesn't seem shy about testing limits.

The only direction they are not moving in seems to be North, although the general potential craziness and desire to expand that Putin has shown (Ukraine) likely makes them a bear that China doesn't want to poke.

The shift was also reflected in Japan’s national policy. Over the course of the next decade, Tokyo became ever more concerned about its southern maritime border. The level of that concern could even be quantified in Japan’s National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG), which outlines the country’s security plans every five years. Between the 2013 and 2018 editions of the NDPG, the number of references to China doubled. In a decided departure from earlier iterations, the 2018 NPDG openly called Beijing’s “unilateral, coercive attempts to alter the status quo” as “incompatible with the existing international order.”[2] Though perhaps not fighting words, they were, for a normally diplomatic Japan, remarkable.

https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/12...evitalization/

[bluejays]

I know the world is run by money, but how can a developed country like China, justify walking into another country and declaring it theirs? It's the equivalent to the States going to Mexico and saying it's theirs. Wouldn't that get a bunch of the world up in arms enough to go to war over that simple show of power? There hasn't been any provocation by Taiwan that I know of. What's the deal here? There has to be some marketing lie they're willing to throw out there to justify it, or am I wrong?

[agulati]

There are very few countries (around 14) that recognize Taiwan as a country though, I believe. US and Canada both don’t recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state.

[Mr.Coffee]

The Chinese view is that Taiwan is theirs. Always has been always will be. I’m not saying I agree with that, just that that is their view.

It’s not like invading Mexico. It’d be more like if Vancouver Island parsed off and then over time Canada declared it belongs to Canada and is not its own independent nation, but VI didn’t want to be a part of Canada and viewed itself as culturally distinct.

[opendoor]

Just to be precise, they flew into Tawain's Air Defense Zone, not their actual airspace. It's still obviously an act of provocation or attempting to normalize the behavior, but looking at the map it's not nearly as alarming as the headlines would suggest:

[Mr.Coffee]

they have actually been flying in there for a few months, multiple times. This is not new. Allegedly it's a "look how fast we can get here" sorta message.

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

The Chinese view is that Taiwan is theirs. Always has been always will be. I’m not saying I agree with that, just that that is their view.

It’s not like invading Mexico. It’d be more like if Vancouver Island parsed off and then over time Canada declared it belongs to Canada and is not its own independent nation, but VI didn’t want to be a part of Canada and viewed itself as culturally distinct.

So like Quebec.

[CaptainCrunch]

Right now, China can form two fully replenished carrier groups, including scouting capability with lots of air cover. They can also put together I think a dozen smaller task forces built around Frigates with Corvette escorts, and then have lot of mine laying and antisubmarine groups.


One of the biggest issues with the Chinese for a long time was night operations. I think they've fixed that.


For a comparison the Japanese navy.


13 modern attack submarine, 12 are the really good Soryu Diesel Electric submarines, one of the Taigai which is a really modern boat but the one in service is a test bed for their future sub project.


4 helicopter carriers the two Hyuga class can carrier the advanced F-35. (up to 18)


Nearly 30 destroyers including 4 of their Kongo Class with carry the Aegis defense system.
9 Frigates and destroyer escorts.
China has a no joke Airforce with about 150 of the F-15J, the F2 (modified F-16) 60 plus 16 F-35, but I'm sure if things get tense the American's will accelerate the delivery of the other 155.


Taiwain

Has about 100 F-16A's 46 of the Mirage 2000,

F-ck-1 (i know I know) they have about 100 of these homegrown fighters, and about 20 F-5 recon plains (not the F-20)


Their airforce would be overwhelmed in a modern battlefield.


Their navy



4 diesel electric attack boats
4 Destroyers (kidd class equivalent)
22 destroyers, most are equivalent to the Perry and Knox class though about 6 about based around the modern LaFeyette Class. 31 Fast attack missile boats.

[activeStick]

China has zero intention to take Taiwan back, in my opinion. They just can't back down to American encroachment.

[undercoverbrother]

#### China and the CCP


*This isn’t directed at the Chinese people or people of Chinese decent

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

I really don’t think the Americans are going to go to war over Taiwan.

From a technology perspective Taiwan is an important ally. Their manufacturing and RnD is vastly superior to China. That is why the Trump embargo on sending parts to China hurt their companies, because China lacks the manufacturing ability to produce the latest semi-conductor equipment. Their phones stopped being cutting edge due to losing the ability to import from Taiwan.

Is that enough to justify defending Taiwan? Not sure, but they are valuable to keep away from China. It's not a slam dunk to think America wouldn't help, and probably the reason China has not invaded yet.

[burn_this_city]

China would face a massive economic and energy embargo if they invaded Taiwan. They are struggling to navigate their spat with Australia over coal. They import nearly 10mbdp of oil, I'm skeptical Russia/Iran could keep them afloat if the US/EU put massive sanctions on China.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

From a technology perspective Taiwan is an important ally. Their manufacturing and RnD is vastly superior to China. That is why the Trump embargo on sending parts to China hurt their companies, because China lacks the manufacturing ability to produce the latest semi-conductor equipment. Their phones stopped being cutting edge due to losing the ability to import from Taiwan.

Is that enough to justify defending Taiwan? Not sure, but they are valuable to keep away from China. It's not a slam dunk to think America wouldn't help, and probably the reason China has not invaded yet.

I think if I remember right, that China was buying a lot of its high tech military equipment through France, as well the Chinese just outright steal stuff and replicate it in their own factories.



Would America go to war for Taiwan. I think there would be demand for it. But realistically the forces picture means that America is probably going to suffer a lot of casualties and public opinion will swing with the first missile strike on a carrier or a lost sub. China has made a strong ownership for command of the South China seas. They have the on shore component that can be thrown into the fight. Their equipment and navy can now operate in power projection roles, and the American's would face a long logistics train.



Probably the best strategy for the American's is not through air power, or even surface power. But through the use of submarines. missile strikes on Chinese bases and missile batteries. Go after their strategic assets like the Chinese missile boats and carriers.



But I would assume that in any kind of battle and this is hypothetical. The Chinese paste Tawain from a distance.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

The Chinese view is that Taiwan is theirs. Always has been always will be. I’m not saying I agree with that, just that that is their view.

It’s not like invading Mexico. It’d be more like if Vancouver Island parsed off and then over time Canada declared it belongs to Canada and is not its own independent nation, but VI didn’t want to be a part of Canada and viewed itself as culturally distinct.

So kind of like Quebec?

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

China would face a massive economic and energy embargo if they invaded Taiwan. They are struggling to navigate their spat with Australia over coal. They import nearly 10mbdp of oil, I'm skeptical Russia/Iran could keep them afloat if the US/EU put massive sanctions on China.

I haven't followed this closely, but I do recall reading somewhere that China isn't in too much trouble because of the coal they are getting from Mongolia.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by agulati

There are very few countries (around 14) that recognize Taiwan as a country though, I believe. US and Canada both don’t recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state.

Isn't that just because they don't want to get China angry as opposed to a real belief its true?

They used to recognize Taiwan as the one China in the past.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

So like Quebec.

Not really like Quebec. Taiwan and China both think they are the true China government. Quebec doesn't believe they rule over all of Canada.

Taiwan is starting to move away from that mentality somewhat and would likely have to make that concession if they want to be internationally recognized.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

From a technology perspective Taiwan is an important ally. Their manufacturing and RnD is vastly superior to China.

I was watching a documentary about the TSMC semiconductor plant in Taiwan - the biggest and most sophisticated in the world - and I wondered if the U.S. has plans to ensure it won’t fall into Chinese hands. If they would blast it to bits with offshore missiles rather than see it captured. And if the Taiwan government is in on any destruction plan.