The Democratic Presidential Nomination 2020

[CliffFletcher]

If only the Democrats had some kind of test case to show whether progressive or moderate candidates would fare better in an election.

Democrats flipped 40 seats. Tellingly, while progressives managed to nominate several candidates in red districts — Kara Eastman in Nebraska, Richard Ojeda in West Virginia, and many others — any one of whose victory they would have cited as proof that left-wing candidates can win Trump districts, not a single one of them prevailed in November. Our Revolution went 0–22, Justice Democrats went 0–16, and Brand New Congress went 0–6.* The failed technocratic 26-year-old bourgeoise shills who were doing it wrong somehow accounted for 100 percent of the party’s House gains.

Had Democrats failed to win back the House, their left-wing critics would have claimed vindication. Instead, the entire debate sank below the surface without a trace. Indeed, what happened instead was something peculiar. The leftists chose to focus on a handful of left-wing candidates, like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who defeated center-left Democrats in deep-blue districts. The conservative media strategically elevated her in a bid to make AOC and her squad the party’s face. The mutual interest of the two sides made AOC the narrative center of the election. The fact that the party had just run a field experiment between two factions, and the moderate faction prevailed conclusively, was forgotten.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...socialism.html

[rubecube]

nm

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

If only the Democrats had some kind of test case to show whether progressive or moderate candidates would fare better in an election.

What a stupidly simplistic argument. Progressive Democratic candidates lost elections in areas they never win elections anyway. Shocking...

What matters is how they did relative to how they normally do in those areas. Just as a quick test, I looked at a list of Justice Democrat supported candidates who lost their general election:

https://ballotpedia.org/Justice_Democrats

1st on the list is Audrey Denney in California's 1st District in NE California. This area hasn't elected a Democrat to congress since the '70s. Denney lost the 2018 election by 9 points. Compare that to the Democratic candidates' results in 2016 (-12 points), 2014 (-22 points), and 2012 (-14 points).

2nd on the list is Ammar Campa-Najjar in California's 50th district. He lost by about 3 points. Compare that to previous two elections since redistricting where the Democratic candidate lost by 27 points in 2016 and 42 points in 2014.

3rd on the list is Stephany Rose Spaulding in Colorado's 5th District. She lost by 18 points in 2018 to longtime incumbent Doug Lambourn. This district has remained static since 2000, so a long history to compare against. In the 9 elections prior to 2018, the Democratic candidate lost to the Republican every time by an average margin of 36 points and not a single candidate got as close as Spaulding did.

4th is Lisa Ring in Georgia's 1st District. She lost by 15 points in a district that didn't even field a Democratic candidate in the 2016 election. In the other 3 elections since redistricting the Democratic candidates lost by 22, 26, and 43 points.

I could go on, but I don't feel like transcribing a bunch of data. But just based on a cursory look at a bunch of the rest and they mostly follow the same pattern. There are a few exceptions, but by and large the candidates greatly outperformed previous Democratic candidates.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Outperforming and losing is still losing. Bernie's path is much thinner than any other potential nominee simply by Florida being out of play with him as nominee. Sucks that that crazy ass state has 30 electoral college votes, but as long as it is that important the Dems need someone who can win there.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I'm not sure who, out of the current slate of candidates, does win Florida. Biden, maybe?

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Outperforming and losing is still losing. Bernie's path is much thinner than any other potential nominee simply by Florida being out of play with him as nominee. Sucks that that crazy ass state has 30 electoral college votes, but as long as it is that important the Dems need someone who can win there.

Maybe, but why do you think Florida is out of play for Sanders? I've seen polls where he beats Trump, others where he does not.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6842.html

There are half a million Jewish people in South Florida alone.

But, some Jewish voters are turning on Sanders:
https://nypost.com/2020/02/08/why-je...ernie-sanders/

I think it would be an upset, but I don't think it is impossible. Might really depend who is running mate is. Castro might be a good choice for Florida.

[Senator Clay Davis]

The Latino population would normally be a good thing for the Dems, except when they run an avowed socialist. Since most Florida Latinos escaped socialist countries, they will be 100% behind Trump. Not all Latino populations are the same.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

The Latino population would normally be a good thing for the Dems, except when they run an avowed socialist.

...who travelled to Nicaragua to celebrate the Sandinista revolution, and praised and tried to meet with Fidel Castro. That's ballot-box poison in Florida.

“If he’s at the top of the ticket in 2020, it’s going to be a bad year for Democrats in Florida,” said state Rep. Javier Fernandez, a Cuban-American attorney campaigning to flip what should be a competitive Miami-area state Senate seat from red to blue.

...In Miami-Dade County, home to more than 1 million Cuban-Americans and a voter base that is crucial for Democrats’ hopes of beating President Donald Trump and weakening the Republican hold over state government, the attack ads write themselves.

“If Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee, Christmas will have come very early for Miami Republicans,” said David Custin, a political consultant who worked closely with Miami-area House Speaker Jose Oliva, a Republican, on House campaigns during the 2018 midterm elections.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/pol...240147903.html

[corporatejay]

Someone said it best here.

The message Sanders sells is "life sucks, the system is rigged against you, I'll make your life a bit better if you vote for me but systemic oppression means you're still ####ed", is not one people can get super excited about. It's just not.

[afc wimbledon]

Much like the UK and Corbyn we have a century of evidence that the Democrats struggle to elect any but centerist candidates but in this cycle, when not winning could consign democracy in the US to the garbage bin of history and make having a democratic party completely pointless, this is the cycle it makes sense to field a candidate who is likely to once again prove the point the US voter doesn't really want universal healthcare, gun control and a raft of other left wing policies the US has never much shown interest in?

This is the cycle it makes sense to go down a pathway that for my 60 years has always led to defeat for the Dems?

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

The Latino population would normally be a good thing for the Dems, except when they run an avowed socialist. Since most Florida Latinos escaped socialist countries, they will be 100% behind Trump. Not all Latino populations are the same.

Asians too!

But Asians are really white voters now.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Asians too!

But Asians are really white voters now.

They're only white until all the latinos have been deported and the blacks are back in the cotton fields, after that they're right back to being the mongol hoardes

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Much like the UK and Corbyn we have a century of evidence that the Democrats struggle to elect any but centerist candidates but in this cycle, when not winning could consign democracy in the US to the garbage bin of history and make having a democratic party completely pointless, this is the cycle it makes sense to field a candidate who is likely to once again prove the point the US voter doesn't really want universal healthcare, gun control and a raft of other left wing policies the US has never much shown interest in?

This is the cycle it makes sense to go down a pathway that for my 60 years has always led to defeat for the Dems?

They've struggled electing centrist candidates, too (Gore, Kerry, Clinton).

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Asians too!

But Asians are really white voters now.

Especially when you're sweeping the Oscars.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by rubecube

They've struggled electing centrist candidates, too (Gore, Kerry, Clinton).

yes, the vast majority of US voters are conservatives, the vast majority of states are conservative, the system is rigged to only allow a center to right wing candidate any chance, so your choice is a centerist Dem or Trump, there is no world where Bernie or Corbyn get elected, it doesn't exist

[GirlySports]

Amy is ahead of Pete early. She's got 26%

[activeStick]

3% reporting...

[Flamenspiel]

I don’t get the whole “Latino” thing in the US. How is that defined? Spain and Portugal were colonial empires, the Portuguese ran the whole slave trade and there is forensic evidence of their old slave forts all over West Africa.

In North America descendants of Spanish and Portuguese colonials are certainly not aboriginals in any sense of the word.

[GirlySports]

Latinos are people from the Spanish colonies in this hemisphere.

I don't think Brazillians even count.

[activeStick]

Yup. "Latino" comes from geography (Latin America), while "Hispanic" refers to coming from a country where the primary language is Spanish.

People from Brazil speak Portuguese, so they are referred to as Latinos.