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Old 01-17-2022, 06:35 PM   #81
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https://nationalpost.com/news/world/...-global-news-2


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Canada has deployed a small contingent of special forces operators to Ukraine, Canada’s Global News reported on Monday, after security talks last week ended without a breakthrough in resolving tensions between Moscow and Kyiv.
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The Canadian special operations presence is part of an attempt by NATO allies to deter Russian aggression in Ukraine, and to identify ways to assist the Ukrainian government, Global News reported, citing unspecified sources.

The unit has also been tasked with helping to develop evacuation plans for Canadian diplomatic personnel in the event of a full-scale invasion, Global News said.
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Old 01-17-2022, 08:56 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by TherapyforGlencross View Post
The UK just announced that they are sending weapons to Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60033012

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Britain is supplying Ukraine with short-range anti-tank missiles for self-defence after Russia amassed about 100,000 troops on its border, the defence secretary said.

Ben Wallace told MPs a small team of British troops would also be sent to Ukraine to provide training.

He said there was "legitimate and real cause for concern" the Russian troops could be used for an invasion.
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Old 01-17-2022, 08:58 PM   #83
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Well 2022 is starting out just fine...
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Old 01-17-2022, 09:43 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by Ducay View Post
I mean, pretty sure the writing was on the wall for this one months ago when a few tank battalions and over 150,000 personnel got stationed on the border.
I'm not convinced the numbers are 150,000 or even close. Not now and not "months ago". However, the situation is trending negatively and the number of personnel has the potential to increase.

Russian Troop Disposition

1. Russia has permanent garrisons in Voronezh, Kolomna, Valyuki, Smolensk, Novocherkassk, Volgograd, Korenovsk, Persianovskiy, and Crimea. Aside from Crimea, these units are not stationed "on the border".

2. Units that have moved/deployed to "near Ukraine" are in Pogonovo, Yelnya, Postoyalye Dvory (Kursk), Crimea, Rozhny, Krasnodor and Klimovo.

********************************

Now, the numbers.

As of a few days ago, the best guess at Russian BTGs "near the Ukraine border" number about 54. A BTG is a combined arms formation, so think a mix of armour, infantry, artillery and engineers. BTGs are tailored to the task they will undertake, so not all 54 will have the same composition. Each BTG numbers between 600 and 1000 personnel. If we lean to the high side, the total personnel is 54,000. Let's call it 60,000. However - and this is key - only skeleton crews are with the BTGs (para 2, above) that have moved into the operational area. That is, Russia has deployed the heavy metal but the troops are back in their home garrisons.

The actual number is not more than 60,000 in my opinion and probably less than 50,000. If you add the Donbass dudes, you're getting close to 90,000.

Interestingly, and since the beginning of January, Russia began moving approximately 7-10 BTGs from the Eastern Military District. Where they eventually end up is anyone's guess. Belarus perhaps. However, like above, only equipment is moving, not the troops. Still, as Russia showed with its recent deployment to Kazakhstan, they have an impressive airlift capability.
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Old 01-18-2022, 07:00 PM   #85
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The UK estimate is 100,000, so that is pretty inline with your estimate. As you mentioned, Russia's mobilization capabilities are impressive though and it is still a significant number.

I think if Russia was dead set on invading Ukraine, they wouldn't be telegraphing it this much. Having said that, it could be on their list of contingency plans. I don't see Putin as a master planner, but he is really good at assessing the present and capitalizes on opportunity.

Kind of unrelated, but I know someone in the military who recently got back from Latvia and he said the mood has definitely become more tense over the past few months.
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Old 01-18-2022, 07:12 PM   #86
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I think if Russia was dead set on invading Ukraine, they wouldn't be telegraphing it this much.
My thoughts as well.

Doubt we see a full-scale invasion, this mobilization is to pressure the west into acting, then when they do Russia can say "See? NATO is the aggressor"
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Old 01-18-2022, 08:11 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium View Post
I'm not convinced the numbers are 150,000 or even close. Not now and not "months ago". However, the situation is trending negatively and the number of personnel has the potential to increase.

Russian Troop Disposition

1. Russia has permanent garrisons in Voronezh, Kolomna, Valyuki, Smolensk, Novocherkassk, Volgograd, Korenovsk, Persianovskiy, and Crimea. Aside from Crimea, these units are not stationed "on the border".

2. Units that have moved/deployed to "near Ukraine" are in Pogonovo, Yelnya, Postoyalye Dvory (Kursk), Crimea, Rozhny, Krasnodor and Klimovo.

********************************

Now, the numbers.

As of a few days ago, the best guess at Russian BTGs "near the Ukraine border" number about 54. A BTG is a combined arms formation, so think a mix of armour, infantry, artillery and engineers. BTGs are tailored to the task they will undertake, so not all 54 will have the same composition. Each BTG numbers between 600 and 1000 personnel. If we lean to the high side, the total personnel is 54,000. Let's call it 60,000. However - and this is key - only skeleton crews are with the BTGs (para 2, above) that have moved into the operational area. That is, Russia has deployed the heavy metal but the troops are back in their home garrisons.

The actual number is not more than 60,000 in my opinion and probably less than 50,000. If you add the Donbass dudes, you're getting close to 90,000.

Interestingly, and since the beginning of January, Russia began moving approximately 7-10 BTGs from the Eastern Military District. Where they eventually end up is anyone's guess. Belarus perhaps. However, like above, only equipment is moving, not the troops. Still, as Russia showed with its recent deployment to Kazakhstan, they have an impressive airlift capability.

This more fully backs up your numbers of about 50 BTG's



https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...2ad_story.html


A little more on what a BTG is


https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/e...g/2Fiore17.pdf


https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-ad...de-Combat-Team


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A Battalion Tactical Group has a far greater number of support assets than would be found in a typical US BN. It has organic fire support (usually 3 batteries of self-propelled artillery/MLRS systems), electronic warfare, surveillance, air defense, and logistical support. For maneuver, they have three motorized/mechanized rifle companies, and an attached tank company. They are able to operate far more autonomously on a Battalion level; however, when faced against a BCT, they do not have the mass to defend against attacks in multiple areas simultaneously. The number of combat systems in a BCT is roughly 4 times larger than a BTG, with a roughly equivalent number of support assets. Bottom line: in Ukraine a BTG can achieve a concentrated overmatch against Ukrainian forces along a narrow axis; however, they lack the mass to effectively defend multiple areas against simultaneous coordinated attacks. In addition, when arrayed against a BCT, they may (given surprise and winning the reconnaissance fight) be able to achieve a local overmatch against a single US Battalion, but doing so would leave other areas extremely vulnerable to offensive missions being conducted by the other US Battalions within the BCT. In conclusion, BTG's can operate more independently than a typical battalion due to their extensive support assets, but cannot stand against a BCT with only the units organic to the BTG, and would require multiple BTG's working in concert to have a chance (although not a good one) against a BCT.

So if I'm remembering right.



A BTG would have 12 tanks to a company. 3 motor rifle platoons to a company which would be 3 infantry carriers/fighting vehicles, 21 enlisted 1 officer and 4 NCO. x 3. Plus attached logistics, and anti air coverage.

I would expect that there would be massive air support through including direct helicopter and fighter bomber aircraft.



I think that the Russian's will re-enforce anyways with reserve units and maneuver teams.


I still don't think we're going to war, and if the Russians do it will be more around special operations then an outright invasion force.
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Old 01-19-2022, 12:50 AM   #88
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I still don't think we're going to war, and if the Russians do it will be more around special operations then an outright invasion force.
It will be a proxy war. Russian backed rebels against NATO backed Ukrainian forces, both boosted with volunteer mercenaries from all over the place.

A great place to spend your stockpile of old weapons and make some money.
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Old 01-19-2022, 05:54 PM   #89
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https://www.cp24.com/news/trudeau-pr...-sea-1.5746458

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A Canadian warship departed for Europe and the Black Sea near Russia on Wednesday, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau admitted to fears of a Russian invasion in Ukraine.
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Old 01-19-2022, 06:05 PM   #90
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My thoughts as well.

Doubt we see a full-scale invasion, this mobilization is to pressure the west into acting, then when they do Russia can say "See? NATO is the aggressor"
Isn't much of Eastern Ukraine already a defacto Russian "independent" state? I don't know why the Russians would risk a full scale invasion. Why not just keep slowly subverting Ukraine as they are now?
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Old 01-19-2022, 06:09 PM   #91
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Because it's a show of force to the West. Russia needs to flex its muscles, and since the US is basically no longer in Syria or the Middle East for active wars, the Russian Bear can't roar where someone will hear it.

You're not wrong - East Ukraine is full of Russian speaking, ethnically-Russian folks (although not really an independent state in the sense of borders and political parameters). Ukraine is considered the "jewel in the crown" of any former Soviet states, so it makes sense geopolitically to make a stink there. It did that seven years ago and it'll do it again.
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Old 01-19-2022, 06:10 PM   #92
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Isn't much of Eastern Ukraine already a defacto Russian "independent" state? I don't know why the Russians would risk a full scale invasion. Why not just keep slowly subverting Ukraine as they are now?
That's basically what I'm saying, I don't think we see an invasion. I could see Russia wanting to speed that up though. Proxy war with some direct intervention, this time with more western involvement than Crimea
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Old 01-19-2022, 06:12 PM   #93
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Russia will no doubt blame any aggression on "independent separatists" or "paramilitaries" acting on their own. They did in 2014 too. Funny how those guys walk, talk, and are equipped like Russian forces though. Just a coincidence.
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Old 01-19-2022, 07:08 PM   #94
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That's basically what I'm saying, I don't think we see an invasion. I could see Russia wanting to speed that up though. Proxy war with some direct intervention, this time with more western involvement than Crimea
They didn't seem to have any trouble with the idea of just taking Crimea, so I don't see why they'd have a problem with doing that again. I wouldn't underestimate their ambitions.
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Old 01-19-2022, 10:45 PM   #95
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I know most of the talk is on Russia right now, but genuinely curious about what the response would be if one of NKs missiles that typically are just launched into the ocean, accidentally hits land instead? Are they talking their way out of it, or is that the end of NK being run by the Kim regime?
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Old 01-20-2022, 07:52 AM   #96
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the uk just announced that they are sending weapons to ukraine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60033012
https://twitter.com/user/status/1483521659210452997
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Old 01-20-2022, 10:47 AM   #97
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I know most of the talk is on Russia right now, but genuinely curious about what the response would be if one of NKs missiles that typically are just launched into the ocean, accidentally hits land instead? Are they talking their way out of it, or is that the end of NK being run by the Kim regime?
It would be interesting to see it play out. My belief is that NK has zero intention to provoke the US to that extent, but if one of the missiles accidentally makes impact on a nation, they're in trouble.

China would be extremely annoyed with them because the last thing they want is a US invasion and occupation to complete the complete encompassing of China's east coast and thus they'd have to resist any sort of US invasion.

My guess is there'd be negotiations between the US and China on how to proceed, which I have zero idea on how that would end.
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Old 01-20-2022, 01:48 PM   #98
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Russia, Iran and China to hold a major naval exercise in the Indian Ocean.



https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-russia-.../31663080.html


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The Pacific Fleet said in a statement on January 18 that a Russian naval group including a missile cruiser, a large anti-submarine-warfare ship, and a large sea tanker had anchored off Iran's port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman ahead of the drills.
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Old 01-20-2022, 02:56 PM   #99
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Russia, Iran and China to hold a major naval exercise in the Indian Ocean.



https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-russia-.../31663080.html
Close to shore, I assume,
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Old 01-21-2022, 12:38 PM   #100
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Russia announced on Thursday the deployment of over 140 combat and supply ships, over 50 aircraft, 1,000 pieces of military equipment, and 10,000 military servicemen
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"In accordance with a plan for training the Russian armed forces in 2022 a series of naval exercises will be held in January-February in all zones of the fleets' responsibility under the general guidance of the commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Nikolay Yevmenov," the news release says, TASS reported.
The article never specified if these plans were planned months or years back. Still, timing of the event in the current conditions, and additional warships to the Black Sea, is probably not the best idea.
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