Ukraine Presidential Crackdown Violence. Russia Invades Ukraine

[Locke]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Hmmmmm This doesn't look good

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russ...-with-ukraine/





####ing Russia

We should try appeasing the Russians and just let them have the Ukraine.

Appeasement has worked out so well in the past....

[CaptainCrunch]

This is all about testing a new president to see what he'll do.

[CroFlames]

Does Ukraine get most of their energy resources from Russia or do they have their own?

I worry if Russia has the ability to turn off the taps in retaliation for Western intervention, then Ukrainians are forced to align with Russia instead of the West.

[RoadGame]

Russia also probing NATO air defence responsiveness with greater frequency of late: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europ...kvSIg6s9HzZX0g

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Does Ukraine get most of their energy resources from Russia or do they have their own?

I worry if Russia has the ability to turn off the taps in retaliation for Western intervention, then Ukrainians are forced to align with Russia instead of the West.

I believe that much of Europe gets natural gas from pipelines which run through Ukraine. Cutting off Ukraine impacts the rest of Europe. I believe we saw this in 2006 and 2009.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by RoadGame

Russia also probing NATO air defence responsiveness with greater frequency of late: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europ...kvSIg6s9HzZX0g

Pretty standard practices for an incoming president. Its also why NK has started upping their weapons tests again.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

This is all about testing a new president to see what he'll do.

Given the scale of the build up, I suspect they are gambling that he doesn't do anything but talk.

Really though, what can you do that hasn't already been done? There is absolutely no way the West has the appetite to go to war against Russia over Ukraine.

My biggest fear is that after Ukraine, they go after the Baltics and that would be a different story. NATO would be forced to respond or immediately become irrelevant.

It could also embolden irredentism in other places.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Given the scale of the build up, I suspect they are gambling that he doesn't do anything but talk.

Really though, what can you do that hasn't already been done? There is absolutely no way the West has the appetite to go to war against Russia over Ukraine.

My biggest fear is that after Ukraine, they go after the Baltics and that would be a different story. NATO would be forced to respond or immediately become irrelevant.

It could also embolden irredentism in other places.

True, the usual response would be to bulk up NATO assets in the area. Send over a Tank Brigade, some troops, throw in some fighter bombers. Run some exercises and re-enforce your allies.



I've said for a while, its a war that I wouldn't want to personally fight, NATO is at the end of a long supply line, and though I'd argue that the Russian's have spent a lot to upgrade their capability and training. US equipment and men should still be technologically better. But that technology only takes you so far when you get into what would be a meat grinder like this. Frankly the Russians have more troops that they can throw into something like this and vastly shorter supply lines. If the ball were to drop the Russians would certainly surge their navy to cut off resupply from America. And Russian subs have vastly improved on their capabilities over the last few years. Their new subs are really quite good.

[SportsJunky]

Double meat?

[CroFlames]

German NATO troops passing through Poland to bolster Ukraine:

Spoiler!

[Locke]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

German NATO troops passing through Poland to bolster Ukraine:

Spoiler!

Don't fall for that again!

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

German NATO troops passing through Poland to bolster Ukraine:

Spoiler!

https://www.theonion.com/retro-craze...and-1819564666

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It could also embolden irredentism in other places.

It's already been emboldened. Lack of action on Ukraine led China to crackdown on Hong Kong and Xinjiang twice or thrice as hard as previously and now they're eyeing Taiwan. Meanwhile Putin moves to test american resolve again, seeing if the cracks in the dam of NATO are ready to break this time.

[Huntingwhale]

I follow that conflict pretty closely since my in-laws live about 5kms from the Russian border. Not to downplay but this kind of posturing happens pretty frequently on that front. Not saying it should be ignored, but if you look at the number of times the Russian military has done this over the past couple years, it's a pretty regular occurrence that rarely makes the mainstream news.

Still, the Russia government is a giant POS. Nothing but lies and more lies in literally everything they have to do with this conflict. Putin needs a good bitch slappin'.

[JoseCuervo]

Crimea is running out of water. Their main source is a canal running to Crimea from the Dnieper River through Ukrainian territory which has been dammed since the start of the conflict. Lots of speculation Russia will invade north from Crimea to secure this canal and use the Donbass to tie up Ukrainian forces.

http://https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1377432142867664899

Great thread on that above.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

I follow that conflict pretty closely since my in-laws live about 5kms from the Russian border. Not to downplay but this kind of posturing happens pretty frequently on that front. Not saying it should be ignored, but if you look at the number of times the Russian military has done this over the past couple years, it's a pretty regular occurrence that rarely makes the mainstream news.

Still, the Russia government is a giant POS. Nothing but lies and more lies in literally everything they have to do with this conflict. Putin needs a good bitch slappin'.

I hate to wish this on the Russian people, but the best possible outcome for the west is some sort of civil war over Navalny and his exposure of Putin/ subsequent attempted murder and arrest. It still seems like a distant glimmer, but the russian people do have some experience in revolutions.

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I hate to wish this on the Russian people, but the best possible outcome for the west is some sort of civil war over Navalny and his exposure of Putin/ subsequent attempted murder and arrest. It still seems like a distant glimmer, but the russian people do have some experience in revolutions.

While Putin is around there won't be any revolution. He has somehow managed to make Russians both love him and fear him. He brought them out of the chaos that followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union and provided stability, order and helped to grow a large middle class. He also dangled the very Americanesque carrot that you can make it rich if you play the game his way. There are a lot of Russians that still support him. Those that don't understand what can happen when you openly go against him. Navalny is important for Putin for that reason.

He's like one of the old-time mafia bosses. Comes in, takes over the neighborhood, cracks down on all the independent crooks, emasculates his closest rivals until they bend the knee, hands out turkeys at Thanksgiving and murders anyone that opposes him.

Russia will change but not until Putin is dead. But even then it could end up with someone worse. It could take generations for a real positive Russia to emerge.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

While Putin is around there won't be any revolution. He has somehow managed to make Russians both love him and fear him. He brought them out of the chaos that followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union and provided stability, order and helped to grow a large middle class. He also dangled the very Americanesque carrot that you can make it rich if you play the game his way. There are a lot of Russians that still support him. Those that don't understand what can happen when you openly go against him. Navalny is important for Putin for that reason.

He's like one of the old-time mafia bosses. Comes in, takes over the neighborhood, cracks down on all the independent crooks, emasculates his closest rivals until they bend the knee, hands out turkeys at Thanksgiving and murders anyone that opposes him.

Russia will change but not until Putin is dead. But even then it could end up with someone worse. It could take generations for a real positive Russia to emerge.

Lol...he's actually like an old time Russian Czar....where do you think the Mafia learned their tactics?

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Locke

Lol...he's actually like an old time Russian Czar....where do you think the Mafia learned their tactics?

Italy?

[Duruss]

Originally Posted by SebC

Italy?

But this is the vory, whom predate Italian mafia.