[Trade] Elias Lindholm to VAN for Kuzmenko, Brzustewicz, Jurmo, 2024 1st, cond 2024 4th

[powderjunkie]

I doubt the other 30 GMs have been watching Lindholm with the same creepy ex vibes as we do. They'll look at his wider body of work and talk themselves into it (if he even makes July 1).

Top 6 C's hardly ever hit UFA and it's a really difficult position to bolster. Even if you have 1-2C punch covered he would still be a nice luxury at 2RW or 3C that could slot up when needed. But of course it all depends on who has the cap space

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

I doubt the other 30 GMs have been watching Lindholm with the same creepy ex vibes as we do. They'll look at his wider body of work and talk themselves into it (if he even makes July 1).

Top 6 C's hardly ever hit UFA and it's a really difficult position to bolster. Even if you have 1-2C punch covered he would still be a nice luxury at 2RW or 3C that could slot up when needed. But of course it all depends on who has the cap space

I'm not sure why you'd think other teams aren't paying attention to a multi year sample size that keeps getting worse?

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by jayswin

I'm not sure why you'd think other teams aren't paying attention to a multi year sample size that keeps getting worse?

His wider body of work is the reason for saying he’s going to have trouble.

Not only have his stats declined he’s going to have his worst season since Carolina in a contract year. He’s only gotten worse in Vancouver.

[Zary's-Mustache]

Only thing that can save Lindholm is if he has a great playoffs and canucks go far. Then he will get a long term deal.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

I doubt the other 30 GMs have been watching Lindholm with the same creepy ex vibes as we do. They'll look at his wider body of work and talk themselves into it (if he even makes July 1).

Top 6 C's hardly ever hit UFA and it's a really difficult position to bolster. Even if you have 1-2C punch covered he would still be a nice luxury at 2RW or 3C that could slot up when needed. But of course it all depends on who has the cap space

That would probably explain why so many terrible contracts are handed out annually in free agency. When a player is in his late 20's his body of work matters less then where the player is currently trending when long term contracts are being looked at. Looking at body of work and dismissing trends is how you end up with guys like Brouwer and Neal on long term contracts in their 30's. I think Lindholm is going to age better than a lot of the typical UFA busts but he's a guy a team would ideally sign on a value contract because there's a high probability that he rounds into a 40-50 point center which warrants Backlund type of money. That said July 1st is the silly season after all and one can not discount the desperation of some GM's.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

That would probably explain why so many terrible contracts are handed out annually in free agency. When a player is in his late 20's his body of work matters less then where the player is currently trending when long term contracts are being looked at. Looking at body of work and dismissing trends is how you end up with guys like Brouwer and Neal on long term contracts in their 30's. I think Lindholm is going to age better than a lot of the typical UFA busts but he's a guy a team would ideally sign on a value contract because there's a high probability that he rounds into a 40-50 point center which warrants Backlund type of money. That said July 1st is the silly season after all and one can not discount the desperation of some GM's.

I think it was Boomer on Barn Burner who said that NHL GM's are not idiots, but they are not a bunch of geniuses either. I thought that was pretty accurate.

[Bonded]

Yeah, I still think Lindholm will get a 7x7ish contract from the Bruins

[Roof-Daddy]

Yeah he'll sign in Boston and fit in seamlessly to whatever it is that they do there, and they'll finish the season with well over 100 points again.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I think it was Boomer on Barn Burner who said that NHL GM's are not idiots, but they are not a bunch of geniuses either. I thought that was pretty accurate.

Moneyball hasn't ever caught hold in the NHL.

At least half of the GMs are ex-players, meaning they are generally not highly educated but are familiar with the players they've seen over the years and maybe more apt to be impressed by past stats. I'm not really sure if analytics has been paid much attention to.

The other thing is that owners want to sell tickets. A big UFA signing sells tickets. Or so they think anyway.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Yeah he'll sign in Boston and fit in seamlessly to whatever it is that they do there, and they'll finish the season with well over 100 points again.

Bergeron carved out a career there as someone considered an elite centre who was almost never PPG.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Moneyball hasn't ever caught hold in the NHL.

At least half of the GMs are ex-players, meaning they are generally not highly educated but are familiar with the players they've seen over the years and maybe more apt to be impressed by past stats. I'm not really sure if analytics has been paid much attention to.

The other thing is that owners want to sell tickets. A big UFA signing sells tickets. Or so they think anyway.

NHL Gm's may not be dumb, but they allow things you can't track to pull them to players. They should really rely on a combination of the eye test and analytics.

You probably don't end up with that 2016 free agent class which is one of the worst of all time.

Even with Lindholm you look at the analytics they are poor, you watch the player and it matches the analytics.

Same thing with a Rasmus Andersson, he will be 30 when its time for a new contract. A player who isn't the best skater, and has had fitness issues shouldn't be getting a long term big money deal.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

NHL Gm's may not be dumb, but they allow things you can't track to pull them to players. They should really rely on a combination of the eye test and analytics.

You probably don't end up with that 2016 free agent class which is one of the worst of all time.

Even with Lindholm you look at the analytics they are poor, you watch the player and it matches the analytics.

Same thing with a Rasmus Andersson, he will be 30 when its time for a new contract. A player who isn't the best skater, and has had fitness issues shouldn't be getting a long term big money deal.

Not entirely disagreeing, but it’s kind of funny you went from “GMs allow things they can’t track to pull them to players” to “You can’t sign this player long term because his skating doesn’t look good and he used to be fat” in like 4 sentences.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Yeah, I still think Lindholm will get a 7x7ish contract from the Bruins

That's probably a good fit for him as they play a tight defensive style that he can operate in and may be able to find a spot on the powerplay to bolster his stats. Zacha was a bust with the Devils but has thrived in Boston.

[Zary's-Mustache]

Is there a chance he re-signs here? Long shot I think but if he came crawling back for a 7x6.5 million I would do it.

Cap going up and think thats the rate for a defensively responsible 2nd line 55 point center.

[Lewis_D]

Originally Posted by Zary's-Mustache

Is there a chance he re-signs here? Long shot I think but if he came crawling back for a 7x6.5 million I would do it.

Cap going up and think thats the rate for a defensively responsible 2nd line 55 point center.

I hope not.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I think it was Boomer on Barn Burner who said that NHL GM's are not idiots, but they are not a bunch of geniuses either. I thought that was pretty accurate.

GMs know UFA deals that take players to 34+ are likely going to look bad in the back half of the term. But they’ve decided that the short-term matters more than the long-term.

And sometimes they’re right. It’s like GMs trading 1st or 2nd round picks at the deadline. They know they’re probably getting only 6-12 playoff games out the player. But they’re pushing their chips in.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by jayswin

I'm not sure why you'd think other teams aren't paying attention to a multi year sample size that keeps getting worse?

I wonder if there's other issues at play, it just seems odd that he's dropped off this much.. Just a shell of the player we saw on one of the top lines in the league.

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by Lewis_D

I hope not.

I hope so. Kuzmenko is pure skill and full of positive vibes. He will be the guy with 2 goals in a 5-4 loss next year.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

I hope so. Kuzmenko is pure skill and full of positive vibes. He will be the guy with 2 goals in a 5-4 loss next year.

I think they were talking about Lindholm. Kuz is already signed for next year.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Zary's-Mustache

Is there a chance he re-signs here? Long shot I think but if he came crawling back for a 7x6.5 million I would do it.

Cap going up and think thats the rate for a defensively responsible 2nd line 55 point center.

But will he get 55 points playing on the 2nd line with defensive responsibilities?