Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

1) Pinder doesn't know what the Flames are willing to offer, and

2) He doesn't even know if they're willing to offer 8 years.

So for him to use the word 'undoubtedly' is a bit of a stretch. The point he was trying to make is valid, in that an 8 year offer would probably be a bigger total amount than any 7 year year deal, but there is no certainty here.

As JayRandom pointed out however, there are advantages to being able to offer an 8 year deal, which gives them more flexibility than other teams.

So I'll say this: if Gaudreau signs with Calgary (and I think he will), I think it is very likely to be an 8 year deal. Because for any other term, it is too easy to get outbid.

Conversely, I think it's quite possible Tkachuk signs a shorter term. I could even see something like a 3 year deal. Lots of cross currents here.

What is this? Of course an 8 year offer is more total dollars then a 7 year deal, and also the Flames are offering 8 years. "Undoubtedly" is the correct word to use there, as the Flames will not present a 7 year deal. Everyone in the world knows that the Flames leverage is the extra year, and yes it is obvious that the Flames will clearly use the extra year.

As another poster said if the Flames aren't willing to go eight years on Guadreau then sell the team. But the idea that they would go 7 years in an equal battle with 31 other teams but won't go the extra year that only they have access to is patently absurd. Like just bonkers.

If the Flames are in on Gaudureau (which they quite obviously are) then they are in on him with an eight year offer, lol.

[Hockey_Ninja]

Out of curiosity I searched how Flyers fans feel about potentially signing Johnny. A lot of these opinions were being repeated:

Spoiler!

[Erick Estrada]

Fans don't run that team though. From what I have been reading there's no appetite to rebuild from ownership as they are going to try and reload. I still think the Devils and Islanders are teams to watch out for as both could use his talent on the wing. The Devils gave Hamilton a $63 million deal so they aren't afraid to spend on free agent talent.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by jayswin

What is this? Of course an 8 year offer is more total dollars then a 7 year deal, and also the Flames are offering 8 years. "Undoubtedly" is the correct word to use there, as the Flames will not present a 7 year deal. Everyone in the world knows that the Flames leverage is the extra year, and yes it is obvious that the Flames will clearly use the extra year.

As another poster said if the Flames aren't willing to go eight years on Guadreau then sell the team. But the idea that they would go 7 years in an equal battle with 31 other teams but won't go the extra year that only they have access to is patently absurd. Like just bonkers.

If the Flames are in on Gaudureau (which they quite obviously are) then they are in on him with an eight year offer, lol.

I never said anything about the Flames offering a 7 year deal - that is the one term that they would absolutely NOT offer. However, there are other terms, besides 7 and 8 years. And it is in fact possible that the Flames would look for something other than 8 years. I didn't say it was likely, just possible.

Nuance seems to be hard on the internet.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by jayswin

What is this? Of course an 8 year offer is more total dollars then a 7 year deal, and also the Flames are offering 8 years. "Undoubtedly" is the correct word to use there, as the Flames will not present a 7 year deal. Everyone in the world knows that the Flames leverage is the extra year, and yes it is obvious that the Flames will clearly use the extra year.

As another poster said if the Flames aren't willing to go eight years on Guadreau then sell the team. But the idea that they would go 7 years in an equal battle with 31 other teams but won't go the extra year that only they have access to is patently absurd. Like just bonkers.

If the Flames are in on Gaudureau (which they quite obviously are) then they are in on him with an eight year offer, lol.

Well, no. An 8 year deal at $9M ($72M) is less total than 7 years at $11M ($77M), even before taxes. I doubt Treliving would miss the market price by that much, but It's not impossible.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, no. An 8 year deal at $9M ($72M) is less total than 7 years at $11M ($77M), even before taxes. I doubt Treliving would miss the market price by that much, but It's not impossible.

Just my hunch but I wouldn’t be surprised if both sides have a pretty good idea on term and dollars. The real negotiation is going to be on bonus provisions, NMC’s, and the finer details.

Both sides have been very quiet throughout the year and, in this case, I tend to think that is a good sign.

[Cole436]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Fans don't run that team though. From what I have been reading there's no appetite to rebuild from ownership as they are going to try and reload. I still think the Devils and Islanders are teams to watch out for as both could use his talent on the wing. The Devils gave Hamilton a $63 million deal so they aren't afraid to spend on free agent talent.

I don't understand the logic in signing with those teams. He's going to be 29 next year, this is potentially his final NHL contract and he's going to want to win. I can't see him signing with rebuilding clubs such as NJ and Philly, or a mediocre one that can't figure it out like the Islanders.

If he leaves he's going to want to sign with a contender and the US east coast is a mess right now. The top teams are either in cap hell (Bruins and NYR) or aging cores on their last legs (Pens and Caps).

The Florida teams don't have any cap room so I don't see how they could sign him. Carolina is the only team that looks like it could have the cap space and could give him the contenting status he'd be looking for.

I think there's a far greater chance that we'll see Johnny signing with the Flames than have him heading out east.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Just my hunch but I wouldn’t be surprised if both sides have a pretty good idea on term and dollars. The real negotiation is going to be on bonus provisions, NMC’s, and the finer details.

Both sides have been very quiet throughout the year and, in this case, I tend to think that is a good sign.

He can't get bonuses per se, other than how much of his salary will be characterized as a bonus.

He'll get a full NMC.

So, the only other negotiation is AAV.

[Vinny01]

If the Flames want to continue to raise prices on tickets in that old barn it is best that they ice the best team possible and having Johnny and Chucky signed is the best way to do that. I still think the arena deal is revitalized this year and will move forward but they are going to be playing in the Dome for at least another 3-5 years after this season.

Investing in players that will keep this team in the playoffs is key over these next few seasons. These owners have always spent to the cap and Johnny and Chucky are franchise level players deserving of huge extensions. If they want to stay here then the team should make it happen

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

He can't get bonuses per se, other than how much of his salary will be characterized as a bonus.

He'll get a full NMC.

So, the only other negotiation is AAV.

I think he can get signing bonuses. So that money is paid up front each year. They can also do some negotiation around the annual wage in each year, subject to the CBA limits.

I imagine the main task is simply assessing the 7 year contract market, and beating it over an 8 year term.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Cole436

I don't understand the logic in signing with those teams. He's going to be 29 next year, this is potentially his final NHL contract and he's going to want to win. I can't see him signing with rebuilding clubs such as NJ and Philly, or a mediocre one that can't figure it out like the Islanders.

If he leaves he's going to want to sign with a contender and the US east coast is a mess right now. The top teams are either in cap hell (Bruins and NYR) or aging cores on their last legs (Pens and Caps).

The Florida teams don't have any cap room so I don't see how they could sign him. Carolina is the only team that looks like it could have the cap space and could give him the contenting status he'd be looking for.

I think there's a far greater chance that we'll see Johnny signing with the Flames than have him heading out east.

Everyone wants to win but the reality is that when it comes to long term contracts the order of priorities for most players are;

1. Money
2. Location
3. Chance to win

For example I don't think Blake Coleman signed with the Flames because he wanted to live in Calgary or was positive the Flames would turn things around. It was all about the money and term for him. I think there's still a 50/50 chance the Flames re-sign him but if the talks progress slowly and he gets to free agency then the outlook turns bleak.

[Cole436]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Everyone wants to win but the reality is that when it comes to long term contracts the order of priorities for most players are;

1. Money
2. Location
3. Chance to win

For example I don't think Blake Coleman signed with the Flames because he wanted to live in Calgary or was positive the Flames would turn things around. It was all about the money and term for him. I think there's still a 50/50 chance the Flames re-sign him but if the talks progress slowly and he gets to free agency then the outlook turns bleak.

1) The Flames can and likely will offer him more money and term than any other team
2) Only Johnny knows what he wants in regards to this
3) No one in the east outside of Carolina can offer him the chance to win with the contract he'll be receiving

[troutman]

A player on my shinny team has also been playing shinny recently with Johnny's dad (he scored a few goals). He is in town for while.

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Everyone wants to win but the reality is that when it comes to long term contracts the order of priorities for most players are;

1. Money
2. Location
3. Chance to win

For example I don't think Blake Coleman signed with the Flames because he wanted to live in Calgary or was positive the Flames would turn things around. It was all about the money and term for him. I think there's still a 50/50 chance the Flames re-sign him but if the talks progress slowly and he gets to free agency then the outlook turns bleak.

The big difference is that Coleman already has two cups. So I would agree that the chance to win was probably third on his list (I also think he was very comfortable signing in Calgary (the city) based on his comments about what he wanted for his family).

The question for me is whether Johnny or Matthew (i) value location far and away over anything else, and (ii) value the "extra" million that another team might try to overpay to get him, over winning and having a good coach/teammates.

If the answer is no to both -- and my gut feel is that it is -- I think Calgary should be at the top of the list for both players (assuming they have a good playoffs and Treliving is able to make a competitive offer to both).

[Enoch Root]

It's almost like different individuals might have different priorities with respect to what matters to them.

[Mr.Coffee]

One thing not mentioned often for Johnny is something not many players have the opportunity for and something no other team can offer him but Calgary.

Opportunity to be a Calgary legend forever, statue, jersey retirement, celebrated the way Iginla is (or even more), by agreeing to be a Flame for life. Not sure he gets these elsewhere (doubt it actually), but the chance for him here is real and goes beyond money.

Not many players stare down the barrel of that type of opportunity either and I suspect that means something to him too, quite a bit probably. If he leaves, he’s just another great player that played, but was never “the greatest” of all time, etc.

[Icantwhisper]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

One thing not mentioned often for Johnny is something not many players have the opportunity for and something no other team can offer him but Calgary.

Opportunity to be a Calgary legend forever, statue, jersey retirement, celebrated the way Iginla is (or even more), by agreeing to be a Flame for life. Not sure he gets these elsewhere (doubt it actually), but the chance for him here is real and goes beyond money.

Not many players stare down the barrel of that type of opportunity either and I suspect that means something to him too, quite a bit probably. If he leaves, he’s just another great player that played, but was never “the greatest” of all time, etc.

I think we look at too much from a fan perspective, he is an employee of the Flames, this is his business. You do what is good for yourself long run but I don't think players share the same passion for where they play as the fans do.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Icantwhisper

I think we look at too much from a fan perspective, he is an employee of the Flames, this is his business. You do what is good for yourself long run but I don't think players share the same passion for where they play as the fans do.

I agree for the most part with the exception being the California teams and NYC as those organizations seem to have it easier when it comes to retaining players.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I think he can get signing bonuses. So that money is paid up front each year. They can also do some negotiation around the annual wage in each year, subject to the CBA limits.

I imagine the main task is simply assessing the 7 year contract market, and beating it over an 8 year term.

I said how much of his salary is characterized as a bonus.

[Icantwhisper]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I agree for the most part with the exception being the California teams and NYC as those organizations seem to have it easier when it comes to retaining players.

Honestly, if I'm and NHL player, Cali and Florida look pretty good. Go to the rink everyday in shorts and flip flops, relative anonymity, that would be pretty attractive.