The Democratic Presidential Nomination 2020

[afc wimbledon]

If Biden is half competent he will win, he is a well liked figure associated with a well liked President running against the least liked President in history, and it would appear Trump will have his only positive, a good economy, destroyed by November, the markets aren't going to 'bounce back' and a vast number of pensioners lost 10% of their income last week

Biden will also have the full weight of Bloombergs team on his side now which proved to be a fearsome back room operation, it was a miracle Bloomberg did as well as he did frankly.

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Biden will also have the full weight of Bloombergs team on his side now which proved to be a fearsome back room operation, it was a miracle Bloomberg did as well as he did frankly.

Yes, that was a stunning victory in American Samoa for Bloomberg. They run quite the fearsome operation.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by icecube

And since you are probably indicative of your average liberal centrist it's no wonder why we are currently so screwed.

I will take the compliment.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Ark2

Yes, that was a stunning victory in American Samoa for Bloomberg. They run quite the fearsome operation.

No they really do, Bloombergs backroom team is responsible for a lot of the unlikely house and senate victories last cycle, he has been picking and winning Dems all kind of seats they likely wouldn't have got otherwise, his team was crucial for the Virginia take down, their micro targeting is apparently without peer, that an ex Republican Billionaire could win anything any where in the Dems is a testament, Tom Steyr had no GOP baggage and has been running for years and did nothing

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by HockeyIlliterate

Yes, but the whole delegate-math and State wins need to be looked at differently as well.

To wit:

So Biden won Alabama, Arkansas, and Oklahoma.

None of those states are going to vote for the democratic Presidential nominee regardless of who that might be.

Biden also won Massachusetts and Minnesota.

Those states are likely going to vote for the democratic Presidential nominee regardless of who that might be.

Biden also won North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.

Maybe two of those states will vote for the democratic Presidential nominee, but it depends on who that might be.

Bernie, on the other hand, won California, Colorado, Utah, and Vermont.

California and Vermont will vote for the democratic Presidential nominee regardless of who that might be, and Colorado will likely too, but Utah isn't going to going to vote for the democratic Presidential nominee regardless of who that might be.

Taking all of that in, I think that people should really disregard the wins in those States where the Democrats don't have a chance in November (most of the south), and instead focus on who won in the likely swing states (North Carolina, Virginia), and on the margin of victory in the safe states.

Looking at it that way, one can see where the Democratic base really is and what they want and what the moderates/swing voters want.

To my eye, it isn't Biden and his policies except for in a very few districts.

Which means that if Biden is the nominee (and I'm guessing at this point he likely will be), he might win the Presidency simply due to the "I hate Trump" factor, but the base isn't going to be happy and their discontent might make his presidency not go so well.

That's some convoluted logic.

Swing states like VA and NC matter, and Biden will bring house and senate seats from states like that which will help him govern.

Vermont isn't indicative of anything beyond being Bernie's home state.

Over 48% of California voted for Biden and candidates who endorse Biden vs 33% for Sanders and 12% for Warren. How is that a huge margin of victory for Bernie? People can still vote in California until Friday, so who knows how that state even ends up, but it isn't trending in Bernie's favor.

[TheIronMaiden]

Hot take:

It doesn't matter who will win. Trump is going to win by an even larger margin then before.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

If Biden is half competent he will win, he is a well liked figure associated with a well liked President running against the least liked President in history, and it would appear Trump will have his only positive, a good economy, destroyed by November, the markets aren't going to 'bounce back' and a vast number of pensioners lost 10% of their income last week

Biden will also have the full weight of Bloombergs team on his side now which proved to be a fearsome back room operation, it was a miracle Bloomberg did as well as he did frankly.

I think if any of the Democratic candidates were half competent, they would win against Trump, but I've definitely got a lower trust in Biden's competency than I do most of the other candidates. I'm still pretty optimistic on the Democrats odds regardless of who their nominee is, but I definitely see more paths for this to go off the rails with Biden.

I'm also not convinced Bloomberg will have much of an impact in the general. He's one guy with a lot of money. There are a lot of guys with a lot of money who will be behind Trump, enough to cancel out Bloomberg's impact, even if he's fully engaged in the general, which I'm not sure he will be. I think he was in this to make sure a progressive didn't win.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I guess he has to figure that out if he wins the nomination. But getting the support of people who consistently vote is a sounder basis for a strategy than relying on people who don't. A 10 per cent reduction in turnout of university educated women in the suburbs hurts a lot more than a 10 per cent reduction in 18-34 year old progressives.

Except the evidence shows that the Democrats need someone to drive out the youth vote in order to win. They took back the house in 2018 largely because younger voters turned out.



Obama's win in 2008 and the Democrats' big pickups in the House and Senate that year were also driven by increased youth voter turnout.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Hot take:

It doesn't matter who will win. Trump is going to win by an even larger margin then before.

Hot Take:

In a few days time pensioners will start to see their pensions cheques drop by 10%, in a few weeks to months time weaker companies will start to close down, demand is already dropping, layoffs will raise unemployment again and the US economy will be in full recession by November.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Rube, why do you keep ignoring the point about Bernie's inability to drive the youth vote either? You're acting like he's bringing in a monumental amount of young voters, yet the early primary numbers don't suggest that even slightly. Maybe it's possible Bernie's pull with young people isn't as unstoppable as thought?

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by octothorp

I think if any of the Democratic candidates were half competent, they would win against Trump, but I've definitely got a lower trust in Biden's competency than I do most of the other candidates. I'm still pretty optimistic on the Democrats odds regardless of who their nominee is, but I definitely see more paths for this to go off the rails with Biden.

I'm also not convinced Bloomberg will have much of an impact in the general. He's one guy with a lot of money. There are a lot of guys with a lot of money who will be behind Trump, enough to cancel out Bloomberg's impact, even if he's fully engaged in the general, which I'm not sure he will be. I think he was in this to make sure a progressive didn't win.

It's not Bloombergs money, its his political operation, he's a multi billionaire politician, not just a multi billionaire, that's the key

[icecube]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Rube, why do you keep ignoring the point about Bernie's inability to drive the youth vote either? You're acting like he's bringing in a monumental amount of young voters, yet the early primary numbers don't suggest that even slightly. Maybe it's possible Bernie's pull with young people isn't as unstoppable as thought?

Nobody is pulling in the youth vote. Lanny was right. The stupid slackers are staying home and playing fortnite or pac man or whatever the flavour of the month is.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Rube, why do you keep ignoring the point about Bernie's inability to drive the youth vote either? You're acting like he's bringing in a monumental amount of young voters, yet the early primary numbers don't suggest that even slightly. Maybe it's possible Bernie's pull with young people isn't as unstoppable as thought?

I think that a part of it is that Canadians generally don't see Bernie as that crazy. Where as in the states, he is a radical. Also, it is difficult to wrap our minds around the fact that Americans are quite happy with the status quo, even if from the outside we see them as a dystopian #### hole.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Hot take:

It doesn't matter who will win. Trump is going to win by an even larger margin then before.

Hot take, I hope not, and at one point I thought that Trump would get swamped under in the election.


Now I'm not so sure, maybe its a Canadian Perspective, but I think the Democrats have really fumbled this thing badly, and their slat of candidates just isn't great.



We'll learn more in the run off, but I think that there is a strong possibility that we see Trump returning to the White House.

[Looch City]

The true hot take is Trump will die from Coronavirus and it'll be Biden vs Pence. Battle of the grey hairs!

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Rube, why do you keep ignoring the point about Bernie's inability to drive the youth vote either? You're acting like he's bringing in a monumental amount of young voters, yet the early primary numbers don't suggest that even slightly. Maybe it's possible Bernie's pull with young people isn't as unstoppable as thought?

I'm not saying he necessarily can, but he has a better chance of doing it than Biden does. The age gap between Biden and Bernie voters is a massive problem for the Democrats:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...rnout-patterns

3) Democrats have a gigantic age gap

The Democratic primary is probably best understood as generational warfare. Young voters overwhelmingly want Sanders, and older voters are just as resolutely behind Biden. Look at these exit poll numbers from ABC News/Washington Post:

58 percent of voters ages 18-29 voted for Sanders; just 17 percent picked Biden

41 percent of voters ages 30-44 felt the Bern; 23 percent chose Uncle Joe

It flipped with voters ages 45-64 (42 percent for Biden, 25 percent for Bernie)

Then the 65-and-over crowd was even more lopsided (48 percent for Biden and 15 percent to Sanders)

And if young voters aren’t turning out as much as the Sanders campaign hoped, that’s an advantage for Biden.

As to why youth vote in the primary might be down for Bernie? Could be he's not driving them out. Another factor might be the growing number of registered independents depleting the pool to draw from.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by Iggy City

The true hot take is Trump will die from Coronavirus and it'll be Biden vs Pence. Battle of the grey hairs!

I mean, depending on how effectively it spreads in there's a good chance Pence is the only guy left standing in a few months.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by icecube

I don't really care if it benefits Canada in a financial bottom line sense. A strong fair democracy and more equal society will have a bigger impact.

Yup. The POTUS not being a narcissistic sociopath is a step in the right direction.

[afc wimbledon]

The trouble is being able to drive out the youth vote is utterly pointless if you cant also drive out the Black, female and blue collar union vote, its at best the cherry on the cake, not the cake

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The trouble is being able to drive out the youth vote is utterly pointless if you cant also drive out the Black, female and blue collar union vote, its at best the cherry on the cake, not the cake

I've said previously that the tricky needle to thread for the Democrats is that they need all of those groups to show up if they want to win. The data from previous elections demonstrates this.

The union, latino, and youth votes are all firmly in Bernie's corner. The question is whether he can appeal to black and women voters. I think there is enough in Bernie's platform to appeal to those groups in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. Which parts of Biden's platform is appealing to the young progressive wing of the party?