Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by belsarius

Well, considering all options are on the table.. that would be an option that is on the table.

Funny that you are so quick to say no to energy tariffs but have no problem throwing someone else industry out there.

Eye for an eye.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by GGG

So what you are saying is that you agree with everyone that she did not act in the best interest of Albertans the past few weeks and shutting up was the better choice.

Thank you, you could have saved pages of debate if you started with this

I think what he said was F eastern canada

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Makarov

For the record, Trudeau met with all of the premiers numerous times to discuss strategy and the importance of a united front. This has been reported widely.

If I remember correctly, Smith was actually the first one to jump in front of the press and start pounding the table and stomping her feet. She basically got out in front of any notion of unity or standing together so she could hear herself talk.

Of course, that’s only worth criticizing when it’s Trudeau. And when it’s not Trudeau, well, it is Trudeau anyway.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Eye for an eye.

Leaves the whole world blind.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Just going to wade in here. Given my experience in large private corporations, there is a rule to successfully running a meeting. You call each stakeholder and profile and influence them PRIOR to the big unveil.

Before Trudeau needed to jump yet again in front of the cameras, did he call each Premier? If so why the eff do you drag them all together to make Canada look like a band of misaligned fools.

We know the answer, he pulled them together and made an assumption on two things. He’d look good at the helm, and the Premiers even the one who was screaming no would just go along.

In short this has been our government. Quick to react and not plan properly. Its the hallmark of Trudeau. It continues to cost Canada. Now he goes on mop up by pointing fingers.

All preventable by making a call to you singular stakeholder and working with her. BoLevi is right, but Trudeau should hve called her. This is national and he unfortunately is the leader.

Yes. It is unfortunate

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Yes. It is unfortunate

Totally, considering Trudeau dropped the ball and didn't start discussions with all the premiers so much earlier.


Oh, wait.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tru...reat-1.7394456


How about Smith should have consulted with the other Canadian leaders before throwing the country under the bus and prostrating herself for the Cheeto? Why is this not on her? She's the one who came up with the plan she is proceeding on, unilaterally, without power(well, she has tantrum power), but Trudeau should have called her sooner to discuss this plan he may not have known about?



####ing squawking albatrosses. Figure it out already.

[BoLevi]

It's a remarkable exercise in naivete to think that central Canada views this as a team effort, unity thing.

For them, Alberta is nothing more than fodder they can use as a bludgeon in the negotiations without needing to anger their voter base. It's a perfect solution. Unless you're Alberta.

The Alberta posters who are clamouring to appeaee central Canada are behaving like an abused partner that thinks that if we'te just compliant one more time maybe things will be different.

[curves2000]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

It's amazing how Conservative supporters can only find a way to blame everyone else for all the woes in Canada, but never look in their own ####ing back yard where the giant albatross is squawking away like a toddler asked to leave the ball pen.


Like, gee, where's the real issue? It's the moron bending over for a foreign bully, and won't take no for an answer when the RoC asks here WTF she is doing. She's just about the worst negotiator in the galaxy, and y'all want to pretend she's some devious mastermind.

Although I don't agree with some her of stance and how she has gone about this/missing at the table, there are Liberal politics at place here as well, especially vote rich Ontario and Quebec.

We can all agree that hitting the US with export tariffs on Canadian (primarily Alberta energy) would have a strong affect on the US considering the size of the daily oil demand. That benefit for Canada comes mostly at Alberta's expense which obviously pisses off Smith but is mostly ok with the other big players in the country.

It's not like Trudeau and the feds are telling Ontario, Quebec and BC that their primary industries are be considered for game changing tariffs or being opened up for market share.

I can assure you that if the feds tariffed auto parts and productions, allowed US train, aerospace and dairy industries to have significant more market access in Canada, than Ontario and Quebec would be beyond livid. Throw in some messing around with BC's mining, fishing and forestry industries and they are going to be up in arms as well.

I highly doubt the feds promised to make AB mostly whole on this deal and Smith objected to that. If it was Ontario who was facing the most crushing of blows than I am confident that they would be furious at the Feds.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

It's a remarkable exercise in naivete to think that central Canada views this as a team effort, unity thing.

For them, Alberta is nothing more than fodder they can use as a bludgeon in the negotiations without needing to anger their voter base. It's a perfect solution. Unless you're Alberta.

The Alberta posters who are clamouring to appeaee central Canada are behaving like an abused partner that thinks that if we'te just compliant one more time maybe things will be different.

One more time: poor, oppressed Alberta IS THE RICHEST, MOST PORSPEROUS PROVINCE IN CANADA.

Jesus Christ.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by curves2000

Although I don't agree with some her of stance and how she has gone about this/missing at the table, there are Liberal politics at place here as well, especially vote rich Ontario and Quebec.

We can all agree that hitting the US with export tariffs on Canadian (primarily Alberta energy) would have a strong affect on the US considering the size of the daily oil demand. That benefit for Canada comes mostly at Alberta's expense which obviously pisses off Smith but is mostly ok with the other big players in the country.

It's not like Trudeau and the feds are telling Ontario, Quebec and BC that their primary industries are be considered for game changing tariffs or being opened up for market share.

I can assure you that if the feds tariffed auto parts and productions, allowed US train, aerospace and dairy industries to have significant more market access in Canada, than Ontario and Quebec would be beyond livid. Throw in some messing around with BC's mining, fishing and forestry industries and they are going to be up in arms as well.

I highly doubt the feds promised to make AB mostly whole on this deal and Smith objected to that. If it was Ontario who was facing the most crushing of blows than I am confident that they would be furious at the Feds.

You do realize that Ontario and Quebec are facing the most crushing blows from the tariffs and that is bad for Alberta and the country as whole? The Feds will likely put retaliatory measures on any commodity that flows south as they should.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

It's a remarkable exercise in naivete to think that central Canada views this as a team effort, unity thing.

For them, Alberta is nothing more than fodder they can use as a bludgeon in the negotiations without needing to anger their voter base. It's a perfect solution. Unless you're Alberta.

The Alberta posters who are clamouring to appeaee central Canada are behaving like an abused partner that thinks that if we'te just compliant one more time maybe things will be different.

It’s not appeasing central Canada, it’s a trade war with another nation. We can flow commodities elsewhere and will do so if they #### around.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by Bonded

You do realize that Ontario and Quebec are facing the most crushing blows from the tariffs and that is bad for Alberta and the country as whole? The Feds will likely put retaliatory measures on any commodity that flows south as they should.

For reasons already discussed (US refineries have no real alternative supply), energy export tariffs aren't even likely to hurt Alberta's economy as much as would otherwise be expected (obviously it would still hurt, but nowhere near the harm caused to Ontario by US import tariffs).

EDIT: I don't really understand enough about the energy industry to say thus. I'm basing this off of what others have said. So don't put much (if any) weight on this.

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by curves2000

It's not like Trudeau and the feds are telling Ontario, Quebec and BC that their primary industries are be considered for game changing tariffs or being opened up for market share.

What do you think is happening when people talk about Trump imposing tariffs?

[BoLevi]

Alberta should propose to Central Canada that they can frontrun the US oil purchases. Canada/Ontario buys up Alberta oil at market rate and resells it to the Americans at a 25 percent premium, or whatever markup they like.

Everybody wins. Ontario gets leverage and control over its trading adversary.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Central Canada + Alberta = Everybody

That's... that's some interesting geography and/or math.

If you can't get the country right, your opinion on what the country should do isn't informed nor should it be given any weight.

To be clear, your opinion may be correct in the end (I'm not saying it is or it is not) just that when you show your math, the path to get there is not only wrong, it's not only in left field, but you're playing Checkers when you should be playing Monopoly.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

It's not going to be good for Central Canada if they impose unpopular and destructive export tariffs on Alberta oil and Trump smells blood in the water. That's exactly the type of situation in which he thrives. An alienated and angry Alberta, getting pillaged by the evil Central Canada Liberals, with Trump in the background telling Alberta that he will do everything he can to help, etc.

Donny Jr? That you?

[Andy83]

Originally Posted by Roughneck

What's impractical about an oil export tariff?

An in-demand resource heavily integrated into their economy that is expensive and time consuming to find a replacement for, if there is an economic case to find an alternative at all. The economic effects would be felt quickly and cause internal pressure to find solutions.



It just might be the most practical economic response the country has. You're confusing practicality with whether or not you like it, which is irrelevant.

Most of this is spot on.

However, suppose the worst case scenario plays out. Trump says "Ok you want to tax energy exports, then F##K yourselves."

There definitely aren't a ton of alternatives for them, but there are alternatives.

None of the alternatives will be nearly as cost effective, but again there are options.

They most definitely wouldn't be able to make up for the 4.5 million bbl/D we send them. Their economy would be devastated.

But they get to continue on.

It literally kills us.... Nearly 1/4 of our exports, $200 billion, gone over night. Nowhere to send it, no capacity to deal with it ourselves. Then what?

Reality is, we have very little-to no leverage if you are willing to go down to the "scorched earth" scenario. US/Trump have alternatives, though obviously much worse. We don't. Trump knows this, we all know it.

Is using our most important export, by a large margin, as a bargaining chip, BEFORE we even know if a response is necessary, really worth it?

Or do you think finding a diplomatic solution (I truly believe this is what Smith is doing) might be a better option BEFORE any additional tariffs have even been applied?

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by Andy83

Most of this is spot on.

However, suppose the worst case scenario plays out. Trump says "Ok you want to tax energy exports, then F##K yourselves."

There definitely aren't a ton of alternatives for them, but there are alternatives.

None of the alternatives will be nearly as cost effective, but again there are options.

They most definitely wouldn't be able to make up for the 4.5 million bbl/D we send them. Their economy would be devastated.

But they get to continue on.

It literally kills us.... Nearly 1/4 of our exports, $200 billion, gone over night. Nowhere to send it, no capacity to deal with it ourselves. Then what?

Reality is, we have very little-to no leverage if you are willing to go down to the "scorched earth" scenario. US/Trump have alternatives, though obviously much worse. We don't. Trump knows this, we all know it.

Is using our most important export, by a large margin, as a bargaining chip, BEFORE we even know if a response is necessary, really worth it?

Or do you think finding a diplomatic solution (I truly believe this is what Smith is doing) might be a better option BEFORE any additional tariffs have even been applied?

If only Canada was taking a unified, strategic approach to trying to reach a diplomatic solution...

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Andy83

Most of this is spot on.

However, suppose the worst case scenario plays out. Trump says "Ok you want to tax energy exports, then F##K yourselves."

There definitely aren't a ton of alternatives for them, but there are alternatives.

None of the alternatives will be nearly as cost effective, but again there are options.

They most definitely wouldn't be able to make up for the 4.5 million bbl/D we send them. Their economy would be devastated.

But they get to continue on.

It literally kills us.... Nearly 1/4 of our exports, $200 billion, gone over night. Nowhere to send it, no capacity to deal with it ourselves. Then what?

Reality is, we have very little-to no leverage if you are willing to go down to the "scorched earth" scenario. US/Trump have alternatives, though obviously much worse. We don't. Trump knows this, we all know it.

Is using our most important export, by a large margin, as a bargaining chip, BEFORE we even know if a response is necessary, really worth it?

Or do you think finding a diplomatic solution (I truly believe this is what Smith is doing) might be a better option BEFORE any additional tariffs have even been applied?

That’s not how it works. The trade flow would change and be suboptimal for both countries. The US would need to import from elsewhere which would leave a gap elsewhere.

[Andy83]

Originally Posted by Makarov

If only Canada was taking a unified, strategic approach to trying to reach a diplomatic solution...

I agree, it would be greatly helpful. But, for the reasons stated in my post, maybe Smith is right, and the Jagmeet's, and Joly's are wrong. Why wont they unite with Smith? That knife cuts both ways.