Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Macman]

I’d be very curious as to what and how the current talks are going between the agents and Treliving.

Tkachuk is having a career year and up until now I thought Johnny would be the easier one to re-sign but he’s been steady and now the historic 100 point season.

They have to be the most talked about players right now around the league as far as contracts go and interest as well.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

If Trev plays the waiting game, he’ll be dancing with himself come midnight.

No he won't, not at all. It will get done before midnight, neither side is looking to sign a deal until the season is over. There are still lots of factors like season totals, playoff success, and awards that will have an impact on negotiations. Here is the thing with Gaudreau, he loves it here, he wants to be here, his family loves the organization, he wants to win here. This isn't Panarin who only cares about money, if the Coyotes had offered him $12M a year the breadman would be a Coyote right now because that is what he values most, money. Other players value a specific location. Johnny likes the location, he likes the direction the team is going, he will leave money in the table for others. I expect his side will start at around $10.5M, the Flames will start at 9M and it will get done for either 9.75M or 10M a year. I know you have a history of banging the Johnny is going to test UFA but it simply won't happen.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by kipperiggy

A decision will have to be made but it’s easily Chucky 10/10 times.

Unless you meant a difficult decision to get rid of Mang which I agree.

Yes, it will be a difficult decision to trade away one of those players, regardless of which one gets traded.

Keeping Mang and trading Chucky might make more sense than you think, if Chucky refuses to sign for anything longer than his 1 year QO.

Let's hope for the best case scenario where all three of them can be kept.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I expect his side will start at around $10.5M, the Flames will start at 9M and it will get done for either 9.75M or 10M a year.

That's quite optimistic, but hopefully you're right.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

No he won't, not at all. It will get done before midnight, neither side is looking to sign a deal until the season is over. There are still lots of factors like season totals, playoff success, and awards that will have an impact on negotiations. Here is the thing with Gaudreau, he loves it here, he wants to be here, his family loves the organization, he wants to win here. This isn't Panarin who only cares about money, if the Coyotes had offered him $12M a year the breadman would be a Coyote right now because that is what he values most, money. Other players value a specific location. Johnny likes the location, he likes the direction the team is going, he will leave money in the table for others. I expect his side will start at around $10.5M, the Flames will start at 9M and it will get done for either 9.75M or 10M a year. I know you have a history of banging the Johnny is going to test UFA but it simply won't happen.

I was just responding to your post that said that Trev was purposely waiting out Johnny to get the cheapest deal possible.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

No he won't, not at all. It will get done before midnight, neither side is looking to sign a deal until the season is over. There are still lots of factors like season totals, playoff success, and awards that will have an impact on negotiations. Here is the thing with Gaudreau, he loves it here, he wants to be here, his family loves the organization, he wants to win here. This isn't Panarin who only cares about money, if the Coyotes had offered him $12M a year the breadman would be a Coyote right now because that is what he values most, money. Other players value a specific location. Johnny likes the location, he likes the direction the team is going, he will leave money in the table for others. I expect his side will start at around $10.5M, the Flames will start at 9M and it will get done for either 9.75M or 10M a year. I know you have a history of banging the Johnny is going to test UFA but it simply won't happen.

Johnny sat out the whole training camp last time. He is not as an easy sign as you make him out to be. He’ll sign ONLY with whoever pay him the most. That could be the Flames but could be not.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Johnny sat out the whole training camp last time. He is not as an easy sign as you make him out to be. He’ll sign ONLY with whoever pay him the most. That could be the Flames but could be not.

Saying he will sign with whoever offers the most is quite the assumption.

[VilleN]

Let's give Chucky and Johnny the ol' Chicago special - 10.5MX8 each.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Johnny sat out the whole training camp last time. He is not as an easy sign as you make him out to be. He’ll sign ONLY with whoever pay him the most. That could be the Flames but could be not.

You are wrong. First, different time periods in a players career, different circumstances. Second, Gaudreau is not all about money, if it was he would not have agreed to the last contract. Third, it will be the Flames, that part is not in doubt, the term and money is what we don't know. Does Gaudreau have the leverage to get top dollar? You bet but the guy also wants to win and he understands he needs to leave dollars on the table for others and he will, I have no doubt. Given the player has bought a home this year in Calgary, his wife has moved to that home, and the player clearly enjoys the team, the coach, and the city, there is no scenario where I see the Calgary Flames letting their franchise forward go to free agency. Is it possible? Sure, like it is possible I will win the lottery on Friday. Possible but not really.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Johnny may want to and be willing to stay here but I don’t think he would be bent out of shape to move back to the north east US and live close to family with less travel. Flames will need to pay big time to keep him and I believe they have a decent chance of doing so. Panarin money should be what he is after

Yeah, but where? Is there a team in the NE US that has not only the cap room to pay him, but is also poised to win a championship?

Why would Gaudreau leave behind what he has here? He clearly loves the team and the city. His family loves it in Calgary. The team looks great. His line is the best in hockey.

That is A LOT to give up just to get closer to home. I think he will stay if the Flames offer him something competitive. Most of the offers he will ge fielding will ge in markets he does not know, and are likely with teams not in a position to compete.


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[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Let's give Chucky and Johnny the ol' Chicago special - 10.5MX8 each.

I think the parallel between Tkachuk/Gaudreau and Toews/Kane is a reasonable one. They signed at 15.2% of the cap to get that 10.5. If Calgary were to win the Cup, that comparison would be very valid.

That would put Tkachuk/Gaudreau @ ~$12.5MM each.

Oooof.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You are wrong. First, different time periods in a players career, different circumstances. Second, Gaudreau is not all about money, if it was he would not have agreed to the last contract. Third, it will be the Flames, that part is not in doubt, the term and money is what we don't know. Does Gaudreau have the leverage to get top dollar? You bet but the guy also wants to win and he understands he needs to leave dollars on the table for others and he will, I have no doubt. Given the player has bought a home this year in Calgary, his wife has moved to that home, and the player clearly enjoys the team, the coach, and the city, there is no scenario where I see the Calgary Flames letting their franchise forward go to free agency. Is it possible? Sure, like it is possible I will win the lottery on Friday. Possible but not really.

It's not up to the Flames, they have zero say in it as a matter of fact.

I believe its much more likely he signs in Calgary again compared to where things were at when the season began, but it is in no way a sure thing. Winning truly changed all that.

Now it comes down to playoff success or lack of it.

Im not sure what he would have to gain by signing before UFA status as a matter of fact. Why would he not at least explore or listen to see who else might be interested...does he not owe that to himself and his wife/family?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Chicago had most of their success before signing Kane and Toews to their massive deals. Once those deals went down trying to ice the depth needed to win championships is difficult. Unless you can cheat your way to playoff depth using LTIR, you're going to struggle with those massive salaries.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yeah, but where? Is there a team in the NE US that has not only the cap room to pay him, but is also poised to win a championship?

Why would Gaudreau leave behind what he has here? He clearly lives the team and the city. His family lives it in Calgary. The team looks great. His line is the best in hockey.

That is A LOT to give up just to get closer to home. I think he will stay if the Flames offer him something competitive. Most of the offers he will ge fielding will ge in markets he does not know, and are likely with teams not in a position to compete.


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The Flames have won a single playoff round, a division title (soon to be 2) and a play in round in the 7-8 years Johnny has been here. He is not walking away from a dynasty here.

Reasons Johnny would leave
1. Closer to family
2. Less travel
3. Potentially more money

I am hopeful that he wants to stay and the same with Tkachuk. Until they sign there is enough reason to be skeptical. I think it is a 50-50 situation when it comes to retaining both long term. While free agency is only a couple of months away there is still a lot to happen between now and then. Hopefully a run here convinced both players to stay.

I still think a spot like NJ would have an intriguing pitch to Johnny as they have 2 former 1st overalls as their 1-2 C and both are having breakout seasons in addition to other high picks in the pipeline. If he goes to the Flyers after their nightmare season then it shows that was always his plan but I really have doubts about them.

Calgary has been an up and down team since 2015 never missing 2 years in a row and only making it in consecutive years once in that timeframe. Tough to say that this is a perennial contender right now but based on this season they look poised (same thing could be said in 2019)

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You are wrong. First, different time periods in a players career, different circumstances. Second, Gaudreau is not all about money, if it was he would not have agreed to the last contract. Third, it will be the Flames, that part is not in doubt, the term and money is what we don't know. Does Gaudreau have the leverage to get top dollar? You bet but the guy also wants to win and he understands he needs to leave dollars on the table for others and he will, I have no doubt. Given the player has bought a home this year in Calgary, his wife has moved to that home, and the player clearly enjoys the team, the coach, and the city, there is no scenario where I see the Calgary Flames letting their franchise forward go to free agency. Is it possible? Sure, like it is possible I will win the lottery on Friday. Possible but not really.

It’s not a sure thing he will sign in Calgary. He is not holding out for nothing.

I am not saying he won’t sign but it won’t be easy

[Textcritic]

It is interesting that you started with this...

Originally Posted by Vinny01

The Flames have won a single playoff round, a division title (soon to be 2) and a play in round in the 7-8 years Johnny has been here. He is not walking away from a dynasty here.

...and then landed on this as the most interesting option in NE US for Gaudreau to sign:

I still think a spot like NJ would have an intriguing pitch to Johnny as they have 2 former 1st overalls as their 1-2 C and both are having breakout seasons in addition to other high picks in the pipeline.

How many playoff rounds and division titles has NJ won in the 7-8 years Gaudreau has played?

This is the point I was making. It's not that it is a foregone conclusion that the Flames will re-sign Gaudreau, or that they will get him on a discount. The point is that they are starting with a huge advantage over other teams who will be pitching for his services. Again, if this team wins a playoff round or two it will be very difficult for him to walk away from his situation here.

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[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Chicago had most of their success before signing Kane and Toews to their massive deals. Once those deals went down trying to ice the depth needed to win championships is difficult. Unless you can cheat your way to playoff depth using LTIR, you're going to struggle with those massive salaries.

Agreed.

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/a...caphit-percent

I don't think Tkachuk or Gaudreau can negotiate up to the 15-16% region, but 12-13% looks pretty reasonable. That's $9.9MM to $10.725MM. I still feel Gaudreau will look straight to Panarin as a comparison. Which is fair after this season. I think anything under (in that 12-13% range) would be considered "team friendly".

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Saying he will sign with whoever offers the most is quite the assumption.

Yeah in term of $ but no doubt he will sign the best contract for HIM

[GioforPM]

In addition to there being fairly few teams with cap room, no other team can offer an 8th year. JG will be more interested in total contract value as opposed to what he makes per year.

[undercoverbrother]

I think how the playoffs go will go a long way to them signing.

I honestly believe professional athletes want to win, sometimes more than they want $$.

If the Flames do well this year and the boys think they can continue to grow it will be attractive to sign in Calgary.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by transplant99

It's not up to the Flames, they have zero say in it as a matter of fact.

I believe its much more likely he signs in Calgary again compared to where things were at when the season began, but it is in no way a sure thing. Winning truly changed all that.

Now it comes down to playoff success or lack of it.

Im not sure what he would have to gain by signing before UFA status as a matter of fact. Why would he not at least explore or listen to see who else might be interested...does he not owe that to himself and his wife/family?

An extra year, that is what. Why would he owe his wife and family that if that is where they all want to be? If the Flames offer him a competitive offer (and they pretty much have to) he is going to sign it. It's as close to a sure thing as you can get. Landeskog wanted to stay in Colorado, did he go to UFA or did he take less to stay put? Exactly.